Short interest

This is the highest available share count I have seen.  My guess is that short term holders are giving over quality company to those that want to cover.  Heck, I sold a little and sold my long held options for 450% profit.  I still own a lot of stock...

Traffic over Profits

I really hate what I observe in the investing arena, especially in the day and swing trading crowd.  Everybody has questions and doubts so rather than reflecting inward they turn to others.  These others seem to know what is going on, but upon further examination all they care about is internet traffic and subscriptions.

Dan Zanger:  I take a look at his twitter stuff, he seems to stay on top of the market but he does not disclose his own trading results other than audited results from a long time ago.  Has he reverted to mean?  Take a  look around your idols in the investing world and judge their performance before listening to their message.

It just seems like nobody knows nothing and that there are too many sheep getting shorn.

TSLA secondary

So first an observation of short interest.  The list at IB seems to indicate short term players with shorting and covering.  Currently there is 400K shares available.  I am not sure what the comp is to look at.  Logically lost of shorts should be covered.  My guess and intuition is that they have not yet really pulled them in.

Rumor is the secondary priced 2.7 million shares at $92.24.  Absolutely awesome.  Me thinks those waiting for pullback will be buying this one higher.

Medicago research and TSLA update

I had to travel and stopped by the Medicago facility in RTP, NC.  It was a very large new modern building, lots of people working, or I should say there were 30 or more cars there.  No bikes in the bike rack.  There was another vaccine company just up the road.  A young man greeted me when I came in the door.  He removed his headphones and assisted me in trying to obtain a tour.  I quickly gleaned from him that I knew much more about what his company does then he had learned in his time there.  While waiting for someone to come give me a tour (and to ask why tobacco instead of other growth vectors) I could see in a glass wall into an area where it seemed like plants were being worked on, perhaps to dip them in the solution seen in the company video.  Several people could be seen observing the process, none were in the fancy white suits from the video.

The lady came down and seemed like she had her bitch on, I got an instant sense that this was not to be someone helpful.  I presented myself as a potential investor interested in seeing the facilities and wanted to ask some questions about the process.  I was referred to someone in Quebec.  I won't be following up on that.

I drove around the building.  They have the largest indoor greenhouse I've ever seen.  I now assume they could produce product all year, but do not know.  Only a few vehicles parked out back.  As I completed my exterior tour, a sign that I'd missed came into vision.  "Medicago is a tobacco free campus".  I'd stay away from this tobacco stock for quite a while but it was nice to see the place.  Perhaps I should call before I go visit Novavax next week?


I went by the Tesla service center.  Three cars wrapped, indicating they were ready for delivery.  Several more being worked on.  It looks to me like they need a larger service center to help expansion.

TSLA Short interest

I follow the shorts in TSLA.  The major reporting seems to be every 2 to 4 weeks which makes it tough to see day to day action.  My broker does not make data public, they are for retail.  But I found a broker site that lists how many shares are available with regular updates.  Prior to earnings I saw 300K shares available, this number has gone down as far as 45K I think.  Post earnings it bounced around such that prior to close yesterday it was still below the 300K I first observed.  After hours yesterday the stock moved higher a couple bucks, still offered that high this am, and the short figures seem to finally be getting better.  I now see 400K available to short.  This broker is THE big one.

I looked at other issues just to make sure and other stocks have millions of shares available.  For those counting on a squeeze or thinking a squeeze might be getting started, I'd say we could still go a lot higher.  Much of the action could as yet be attributed to trend followers and large institutions establishing a long term long position based upon business outlook and true profitability.  I don't know these things to be true but it is what I am observing.

This is a must read

PHD research into trading

IPO research thru 4/2013

Nothing of interest.  I am surprised.  But I am picky.

Most of what I have reported on here for IPO research remains on my quote screen.  I have owned most of them at one time or another, generally taking small gains.  VSI surprised me with downward move, they seem to remain a well run company.  I think CPTS could now be a double from when I first watched it, I just never held onto any confidence.  DXCM and PODD remain solid, just don't seem to have enough of a target market for what I am looking for.  A vaccine that everyone takes every year is much better gamble than a company that makes devices that only a portion of diabetics would use.  Solazyme bears some watching though I have not kept up with them well due to price action.  SCTY strikes me as high risk, especially before IPO lock up.  Perhaps after June 11, with better institutional following I will consider.

CLNE strikes me as one to follow now.  There is a lot bad to think about it but the chart screams long term support and buying, I just don't see quality when I scan who owns the thing.  If price starts moving up and better owners step in, I'd consider buying.  But I have only started to watch this one and need to study more.

I try to swing a big bat.  I am studying game film of the pitchers and am waiting for my pitch.  I've now got my first ever double and want a game winning grand slam.

Virus Like particle vaccine research.

This is a work in progress and I have found blogger to not allow things to go smoothly.  I am not sure how polished I will get this but I need to start typing as I go.

Vaccine approval process article with links to follow at the end:  http://www.path.org/publications/files/VAC_understanding_fs.pdf
Academic paper expounding on above:  http://faculty.washington.edu/peterg/papers/HudgensGilbertSelfSMMR.pdf
Slidshare on approval process:  http://www.slideshare.net/rwmalonemd/Clinical-Vaccine-Development-Introduction

Wikipedia :   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus-like_particle

I am mainly interested in a company called Novavax, first came to light years ago when I got stung in bird flu hysteria.  Like a dog to vomit I have watched this pile and have an increased interest.  I have spent some time reading a lot of their site and publications, think I have written about them before.  I am reading further on competitors.  It seems like a lot of companies have similar technologies, I have not seen discussions on why one company might be better than another.  What I do see is that Fidelity owns 15% of NVAX, though it is only a 303M market cap company which means they have invested only 45 M.

NVAX:  Long history in business.  Partnered with GE, Cadila in India, LG in South Korea.  Barda-Path help with funding.  Many things in pipeline.  Uses fall army worm.  I am not sure of the benefit of using an insect compared to a plant or even an egg.   Market seems large for RSV (all newborns), and anything flue related (they estimate growing market from 3.6 B now to 4.7B in 10 years).

Medicago MDCGF in Canadian smaller capped company that works with VLP in tobacco plants.  4 weeks to testable product.  Has a RTP NC office, I need to go visit.  Seems smaller scale with fewer candidates.  Very thinly traded OTC, like 15K shares a day.  SP report here:  http://solutions.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/WS/EntryServlet?pc=IVS&tracking=IVSMEDICAGO_INC&auth=userA&pagename=encrStockReportPDF&company=116138171134164074121236231068161220198195146032

Ligocyte has been purchased by Takeda for 60M, not traded, main candidate is for norovirus/gastroenteritis.  Not a big market but others think if you get sick from norov you will get the vaccine.

Other companies:
Oxford Expression Technologies:  UK based provider of training and supplies.  private
VLP Biotech:  private, service company with hints of future vaccines from 2010
Technovax-private VLP developer that has not started testing yet.

VLP vaccine note:  I had naively thought this was brand new technology but it already has safe accepted products on the market.  The two HPV vaccines marketed to young teens are from VLP.

I like NVAX for now, expect they could be a multibagger if they win first arrival advantage or get bought out.  It can take many years for this and I am willing to wait.  JAZZ and DNDN are examples of what can happen with smaller captive market hysteria, and VLP could be larger captive market.  It is tough to arrive at target price.  I recall that a company might be worth 4-10x yearly sales.  So if they captured just 1B of potential vaccine market, market cap could be 4B for share price of $26.6, without any other vaccines being approved and without accounting for over exhuberance.  RSV vaccine could add more as there are nearly 4M births per year in the U.S.

NO SHARES LEFT TO SHORT

I am not worried about the action, I see massive pain ahead. Even if not, I am holding for years, not for this action.

Some follow up

I drove around the service center again. Seemed to still be four cars out back. A hired crew was cleaning an S, saw an S and a Roadster in the shop. Also saw this article at a book store: http://www.waltermagazine.com/its-so-easy-being-green-when-your-ride-looks-like-this/