Some Bird brained buys

Sometimes one gets crazy ideas of things to buy and hold. This might turn out to be a lifetime investment. Surely more to follow. The way these have worked before, click image for larger size.

Greed

This morning I awaken to look at charts and find myself wishing I had more money to invest. There just seem to be a lot of stocks doing well or ready to do well. The future really does look bright. Things might not do well this week, but the trend in my view is no longer down. This will be confirmed by more stocks hitting new highs, indexes both trading above their 200 day averages and have their 200 day averages level out and start moving up.

I am surprised at the disbelief that abounds. I'd ask those that don't believe when they would change their minds. I suspect they will be late comers to the party as they are waiting for news to be better. As for me, I am willing to climb the wall of worry (and I am sleeping well at night).

Emotions

Dominated my trading of the past week or two. NFLX went against me and I sold. Tough to say if I should not buy something in a downtrend, or was my judgement just wrong at that time and it was good I took a small loss rather than a large one. Time might not tell on that one. TNDM continues to yank chains all over the place, perhaps thursday past was bullish action with recovery off massive loss.

Market moves down and poor recent returns had me singing the blues. One thought is to quit this all. The other is to focus on what great traders would do and then do it. Fake it until I make it. So today I look at lots of charts to see what is going on.

I've done this before, the positive thing with this funk is relative shortness, just a few days.

Resolved

I will develop a mission list, business plan to detail how I will trade in the market. This is born out of wasting time, falling back on old habits, and not working a plan. I am unhappy with my actively managed trading accounts, very happy with annuity and 401Ks.

I find myself wanting to pay an advisor to spoon feed me. I know what to do, just need to do it.

FCRS

I admit I am! I left a buck on the table compared to close.

If it does not go parabolic it should set up for a bit prior to going higher much. NFLX has consolidated on lower volume and has greater chance. However, it was bad trade entry for me, bad emotion, not planned.

Bad news for banks and they up. Trade charts not news. Nibbled UYG.

Update

It might prove to be an amateur move but TNDM gave me a scare this am and I sold. It is still very much on my watch list. I'd just printed out the daily and weekly graphs to compare to when I got in it, lots of things were better like estimates, EPS growth rate and estimates, fund ownership, and the number of funds in. On the down side it listed lower (only average) group strength and a lower U/D Volume ratio. With yet another high volume gap crap open my I sold. It looked like I could give back profits. If it recovers I will be the first to call myself a FIRST CLASS REPEAT SHITHEAD!

One of the things I think about doing is a mission statement or business plan. One of the things I would have to address is how I want to make money in the market. Do I want to buy and hold in good market, or do I want to try and focus on moving in and out of the leaders only when the charts suggest they are ready for a move?

Along those lines I went long NFLX with unsettled funds. It has pulled back from 50 to near 45 now, looks like it chased folks out with a spurt to 42 and should hold 44 at this juncture. Volume low for the day, I expect this might be a few days early for a big move.

I want a 50 bagger!

I wonder if any handicappers gambled on the jockey.

Position update

I'm happy to report that money I have put back in the market is working on my behalf nicely. Longterm retirement money is up 1.6, 1.8, and maybe 8%, these in funds that I cant exchange but once a quarter. The big gainer is largely from real estate and financials. I have had some whipsaws in these accounts but have stuck to plan. I do think this has been good start to accumulation in the market.

I see NFLX has been on the map big. I have not traded this one of late but I continue to like its prospects. It looks like a hold or avoid for now, perhaps wait for more tree shaking to finish up. One of the things on my to do list is to get a list of what are good buy points in leading stocks, this one sure bounced nice near the 50 day average.

I was stupid recently with some SAY, lost very little, holding $90 worth of calls on it for July 2.5. Odds figure further decline at this point.

I own one stock in several trading accounts. It has an okay story, not quite on public radar, good numbers, good price movement. I aim to hold it for good market moves. It is tempting to sell it for my 10-11% gain that I have thus far as I am back to start of year account balances. But above my trading area I keep charts of big winners I have owned before that I sold out of prior to end of run, basically being chicken shit with poor rules. The current charts up are FSLR, POT, and ISRG. ISRG was one that I left a lot of money on the table with the puts I had after market turned down. I just had very little big market perspective at the time and allowed my $20 put to go to 100 in a week...

I hate the action of the market indices action yesterday. I suspect lots of wind lost from the sails. Early candles line up to say if we have a bad day, or even a slightly bad day that turn of market direction could be coming next week. That would be good for eyeing ideal market entry!!! QQQQ near its 200 day average, it would be nice to see that pierced. My buy call for QLD at 30 with 20 stop looks rich. Shoot from the hip entry would be 32.

I am rereading Weinstein classic.