OMG! The death cross

Frankly I don't give a $%&^! Is this the end of the world? I think I referenced this summertime activity in my April 7th video, said to monitor for leaders if and when we had a summertime lull, gave examples from a few years ago. Last year we had about an 18% pullback in the spy from 122 to 101, then took off BOOOM! Perhaps we get the same, though many say 3rd year bull not so good. My plan is to go over a lot of charts in coming weeks and decide on what to focus on in the coming months. Click chart for larger.

The Big Money

I have recently read another good book in the theme of buy and hold like Lynch, in fact Lynch reviews the book. If you want to do a search for it the ISBN is 0743258703

The book tells good stories about how analysts used to do business. It suggests finding stocks based upon: Business Model, Assumptions, Strategy, Management. It advocates following seven steps of: Market timing, patience, knowledge, discipline, emotions, time horizon, benchmarks.

If you are not a purely daytrader I suggest this book to you. I welcome discussion of stocks that fit the philosophy of this author.

Some good reads:
Smash the debt Ceiling: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/08/01/110801ta_talk_surowiecki




Neat article on a rich man and his company: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/07/25/110725fa_fact_cassidy

Rich mans rules: http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/Principles/Bridgewater-Associates-Ray-Dalio-Principles.pdf

TSLA

I have been following Tesla for a while now, trying to justify the price and work on some assumptions of the future. So what I did last night was examine other auto maufacturers market cap, worldwide market share, and then come up with possible justified market cap if TSLA produces enough vehicles to match prior production at their NUMMI plant. This would equate to 1% of world production at 450,000 vehicles a year. The table here (might have to click on the image for larger) compares three large companies and figures out what TSLA market cap would be. For example, Ford has 46.9B in sales and has 18.4% of market share would suggest that 1% of market share could justify future cap of (46.9B/18.4) 2.6B. The comparitive cap shows in the 4th column.

My discussion
This does not account for non auto sales such as drivetrains to Daimler and Toyoda
This does not account for likely higher margins on early TSLA models
This might not be a good way to determine value, but it does suggest they have a ways to go to justify current price compared to GM and F but could grow 3-4 x to equal TM.

I'd like educated feedback on TSLA, my attempt at price justification.
Thank you.

New video

I forgot to talk about presidential cycles. From what I read the third year has a history of being the best for the market. That is where we are now.

For best quality, switch to HD viewing. Useless otherwise...

NFLX

Full disclosure, I am only a subscriber...

3.1.11

Works better if you click video to watch on youtube in 720 HD

Market action

Casino action getting tight

Click image for larger view.

Place your bets

Book quote- do you think things have changed much?

I am reading a very old yet classic investing text, the following comes from it:

Eighty-five or ninety per cent. of the business, investment and speculative mortalities are due either to over-trading or lack of capital.

Risk management

My first education video! Nothing original but collection of what I have learned. I'd suggest watching it in 720P HD.

Two interesting Links

World news headlines: http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/flash/

Live AlJazeera newsfeed: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Diabetes management

The following chart is a new favorite of mine. I am trying to follow group strength and then identify strong stocks with favorable patterns. I scanned this group as being near new highs, saw this stock. I am in it perhaps a little late but I have a risk managed position on...

The story with it: For those that do not know, I pay my bills as a nurse. Diabetes is a killer disease. I have had a loved one seize in bed next to me with little to offer as they suffered from low blood sugar. Sugar gets too low, then I have nothing to offer if they are not conscious. Luckily I also keep bees so I jammed some honey down the gullet, less of a risk of aspiration with thick stuff like this. When the rescue truck came the blood sugar had recovered to 29 (normal is 70-120). Subsequent seizure we had a glucagon pen.

There are continuous glucose monitoring systems available that will allow us to see the sugar all the time. Picture a small pager with screen. Well this company makes one that a user can wear for 7 days, Abbott makes one that can be worn for 5. It will give you a warning when high or low, and trust me, it wakes you the Foxtrot up!

We demo'd both. Cost is about 800 out of pocket, then insurance pays for the disposables. Better glucose control possible along with smoothing of peaks and valleys. Whizbang programs to track reaction to foods, insulin, and exercise. Better A1c=less target organ damage. There is not an insulin dependant diabetic int he world that should not wear one.

We had an appointment to get one, it got cancelled and moved back two more months. I hope this is not a supply issue and I hope that it is due to demand.

EVERY DIABETIC NEEDS A LOVER!




Post script note: This was an emotionless trade to take except for the excitement of what I had looked at breaking out. I bought it based on group research, favorable story, risk managed, strong volume, new product. There was nothing to be scared of.

Investment ideas

I need to be careful flitting about in the market, stay focused on certain areas and ideas, do what works. What worked at the end of the year was trend trading some breakouts or oversold bounces. But my post trade analysis (PTA hereafter) still tells me I am missing some big moves. Some of my best ideas have been what I have talked to family about if and when they ask. Out of town visitors, very passive participants in the market, have asked me what to buy. Generally I have an idea of what that should be, nothing to risky, generally with some parameters based upon breaking out of price ranges and also with some sell stops in mind though I rarely get asked about them. Some of these ideas have just been stellar performers. Also in my PTA, I see many stocks I used to own that have just way outperformed the market over time.

I want that kind of big performance. I want to severely outperform the market. I want some homeruns and 10 baggers. It has been a long time since I got over 20-30% on anything I bought. The only way to get the big money is to buy and hold. My obsessive trading has not helped.

Think about trading rules, what do they tell you? They tell you how and when to buy and sell. Buying and selling gets one in and out of trades. How can I adapt this for the big money? Buy right, stick with big trends, and hold onto the winners. I see how this can be done with Canslim type stocks, combining the best of what I have learned.

I have one such idea today.

Theme for the year

Click the above (theme for the year) for a good read on asparagus. It also goes into my idea of a theme for the year- restraint equals indulgence- near the end of the third page.

Along the lines of good food, I took my remaining two pigs to the butcher today. We are getting hams and bacon cured, a lot of the rest will be used for homemade sausage. It will be expensive processing but priceless food.

Thank my broker for first VWAP assisted trade

Click image for larger

After market analysis: I could have waited but ended up right today.

A new year brings new hopes

If you do the right footwork the seeds placed now can fertilize the future. Proper care and attention to growth can give you high flyers that will win the race.

2010 Year in review and reflections.

First off, please consider looking at last year here: 2009

Second, facts is facts and here they are:
-Overall our wealth increased 10.5%, subtracting for capital that was earned and added this year, overall up 4.8%.
-401K/annuities with limited options up 6.3,4.3, and 8% this year.
-Cash account=bankrupt
-Roths and IRAs: one was minus 4.3%, others up 5 and 42%!

Discussion: I am most proud of recovery from some disasters with futures and poor overleveraged risks. I felt like I overall got into a nice rhythm as the year went on.



Reflections and thoughts:
1. Most of what I say here really looks like gibberish when going back to look at it. Ignore me.
2. I continue to miss out on great stocks by ignoring them once my wallet gets hurt. I need to focus better.
3. I continue to note that if I (and if you) do not know what to do then doing nothing is best. If you are asking questions on how to do a thing or what others think of a trade, DONT DO IT.
4. Along the same lines as above comes my theme for the next year: Restraint equals indulgence.
5. Results matter.
6. Some things that I was most excited about over the past year have done the worst.
7. Risking money on HTF a good way to go broke.
8. I have given up on the dreams of daytrading for a living. I have given up on quitting my job early. I aim to focus on self and discipline. Screwing up on the discipline costs emotionally and financially.
9. Futures are nice. I look forward to mine so will leave that roulette wheel alone right now.
10. Narrow focus!