RSV data release

 

GREENVILLE, NC – Due to increasing numbers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and other viral respiratory illnesses cases, beginning at 8 a.m.  Wednesday, Dec. 30, only children 12 and older may visit patients at the James and Connie Maynard Children’s Hospital at Vidant Medical Center in Greenville, NC.

 

The purpose of restricting children from visiting the children’s hospital is to protect hospital patients, staff and visitors from children who may be carrying various respiratory illnesses.

 

However, children under the age of 12 who are not sick and live in the same household may visit their healthy newborn sibling.

 

As always, family and visitors of any age should not come to the hospital if they have symptoms of a cold or flu, fever, diarrhea, vomiting or headaches. Also, everyone age six months or older is encouraged to get a flu shot.

 

These limitations are temporary and will be removed as soon as viral respiratory illnesses decrease in the community.

 

Port Terminal boat landing

NVAX opinion and fact

http://www.bioinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/MTSL-Issue-814.pdf

http://www.pmg-research.com/studies/condition/respiratory-syncytial-virus-rsv/

Zoes kitchen

My broker emailed me today to allow lending of my shares to some prime broker as if they want to sell shares short.  Stock price has been resilient.  My guess is that ZOES is gonna show some interesting action over the coming months.

Have fun!

Another NVAX comp INCY

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Only time will tell.

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Data published in Journal of Infectious Disease.

New all time high!

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TWTR Twitter

Someone put out his first tweet since Nov 2013, only has 19 followers.  Click image for larger.

Novavax pull back

So what if the market is weak.  NVAX is weaker.  Here are some of my thoughts.  If pending news is bad, there is no way to know.  If many top insiders start selling, time to think of an exit plan.  Price is above the 50 day average so everyone should be happy AND prepared for more of a drop.  200 day average is rising, allowing price to expand as high as near 16 short term.  Further news expected.

Past winners of TSLA and examination of missed bulls of ALXN and JAZZ suggest the current 15% of the top pullback acceptable and another similar size move down quite possible.

Stick with the plan.

FDA drug approval process

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/drugs/guidancecomplianceregulatoryinformation/guidances/ucm358301.pdf

NVAX Director Modi

I do not know at what price he bought into the company, think it was a lot lower.  I think he has been smart selling on the way up.  Last time he sold shares was in the low five price range, as soon as he was done the share price continued climbing nicely.  Click image for larger.

Three Cheers for NVAX

Almost hit 9 this am


FYI, 20% in less than 2 months since this live call was made.
I'm in for the long haul.
Institutional ownership at an all time high >65%: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nvax/institutional-holdings

FIDO bought in.
A new owner of the company bought in with 14M shares

I expect as price climbs much higher that this stock will get promoted some as shorter term holders work to distribute.

17 near term value IMO
200-300 long term with SHAK like gusto (based upon other pharmas actually)

A good lesson driven home hard: Zacks article on CLDN

So some writer for a paid advisory service at least had the balls to revisit an old idea that failed.  CLDN.  CLDN working on stage 2 drug study for some virus they inject, it helps cardiac cells, perhaps regenerate (or whatever, it was too hocus pocus to worry about) such that it would help those with numerous cardiac problems.  The writer suggested buying when the price was around 18 on Feb 27th, it went up some to 25.  There was one glaring issue with this though, something any investor should have their fingers on the pulse of.  Click image.

Beginning in late 2014 every insider transaction in this company was a SALE.
They did not believe in it themselves.
Some of them had salaries of half a million per year, still were selling.
WTF?

Novavax leadership has been buying.
The lesson is stick with companies whose senior people file purchases, not sales.

ZOES v SHAK

I'm not local to SHAK, can't really try out the special sauce.  Market cap is just outrageous given current sales but the price action is incredible for those that own.  I gotta have some conviction in the story in order to own.  Good luck to all...

ZOES as a comp to SHAK seems like it could move in unison as a growth story but the story does not draw so much attention.  Perhaps from a good PR machine we get the IPO pop for lock up expiry?  Comparing ZOES to a couple other restaurants suggests there should be room to grow.  Comparing sales figures to market cap, they are inline with a MCD but have significant room to grow, plans to grow by 30 stores this year, have 32 leases signed, and want to double in size over the next four years.  Given this years figures alone, I think price in the 50's is doable in the right market.  This comparison considers higher market cap along the lines of CMG which is 5x sales.

Here is the confusion to me:  Nasdaq lists 100.15% institutional ownership.  I've never seen things this high and I do not understand.  http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/zoes/institutional-holdings

1/4 shares are held short!  12 days to cover...

I think long term holders of ZOES, if management can execute, can expect 10-20x return.

My money is where my mouth is.

Tesla new product line

Mark my words!  It will be a truck.  Years ago Elon tweeted that he was looking for truck engineers (or something similar).  They have to have this fairly well designed by now.

TESLA TRUCK!

@4nursebee on twitter

Other evidence:  http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-re-confirms-electric-truck-is-in-teslas-future/

NVAX share offering

This sure hurts in the short term but does not change anything with regard to the big picture long term.  When price targets are hit, or the reasons for entry have changed, then I will sell.

My 7th year doing this publicly

And finally picked up a 7th follower?

Be kind, leave a comment or let me know why you started following.  I tried to email but something screwy with google not letting me connect.

IPO research

I just did a real simple review of IPOs since the last time I did them.  I'll probably start following BOX as it seems a popular company, wont trade as it is not the kind of thing I can understand.  I'll dig into SHAK more, as well as INCR.  I can do a drive by INCR, they seem to have a ton of employees.

Big Ass Prints!

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Triple confirmation and saying goodbye to an old friend.

Tesla is not looking so hot from a technical perspective.  I'd been planning on holding it for many years but it has lagged behind my other two stocks.  It is trading below common averages, many of which are moving lower.  It failed to retake these key averages at end of 2014.  I sold out.  Chart below:

Novavax has performed well, finally breaking out of multi year highs.  I might have jumped the gun adding more this am but expect that over the years it will continue to do well.  I've looked over some of the trading books on my shelf and have tried to reinforce that this is a good point to add to a potential winner.  It is a potential triple combination winner ala Weinstein book (P.148) with good RS (blue line), breakout on high volume (some critique over building volume of past several weeks), and it has experienced a nice move in price after at least a 50% move from the $4 range when it broke out of 6 resistance.

I'm still watching TSLA for more big moves.

Reversion to Mean

Maybe I won't do it this year.  10.6% YTD.

Stan Erck on Cramer's Mad Money