Risk vs Reward

Wishy washy

A few days ago I printed out a list of stocks in the IBD Energy Other group. Looking through them, I see more weakness in solar than expected. For example, it is easy to compare the ETFs TAN vs KOL. Coal is stronger than solar, solar in a bit of a wedge that needs to resolve. There are also a number of solar companies trading below 200 day average, I might stop looking at JASO as much. Compare SOL to where JASO could go from here, right inverse shoulder could easily break.

Scans and emotional

First off, yesterday was a bad trading day for me. I broke recent rules, got quite emotional over Apple and might take a hit from it. One bad trade begat some others, mainly just taking profits earlier than planned. This am of course I look like a genius, maybe it was intuition. No joke, I sold out of all trading positions minutes before the fall yesterday except for that falling fruit. I still believe in the trade, blue sky breakout ala Jesse.

I have done much more work on looking at scans. I try to follow high volume moves up, more of these are failing than working out. I look for them to consolidate after big move and then resume the move, that is what is failing. Tough to put that to a statistical advantage without short selling. Speaking of this, RODM looks like just such a sell but volume patterns dont quite say it yet. Stock wise, I continue to follow JASO for a move, has NEW leaders, I see it is in a 4th low volume pullback, each of the previous 3 were tradeable. Long I am watching ASIA TSRA PLD ARST SGMO EXXI.

ETFs. I have been looking at these as low volatility plays, not gonna easily lose 20% in a fast move. Also considering them in turtle sense, a way to play commodity and sector moves, buy new 4 week high, sell at 2 week low. Recent highs that seem to be holding recent breakouts are JJC USO DBC UGA VEU EWH EWS KOL SLX IAI MXI (which has been volatile of late). If market pulls back, tough to get them here, but they seem to bounce well off of shorter term averages. Market panics have been short term of late, so they might present with good buy in this am after first hour.

AAPL

I'm willing to take a 10% hit on this one, bought in. Sold my EWM and RSX to buy. I would have preferred to have kept the 18% gain in RSX longer but AAPL looks too good to me. Many will not believe it for a while.

APPLE

AAPL is a buy by many standards. This is a bull market, it is in new high range. If you can tolerate a little pain down to 190 and can let it go it is a buy now. The sky is the limit as people start jumping over each other to own this one. I am even looking to get an ipod touch and I am not a techie.

Poor research am

Lots going on this am, selling some chickens, company here, looking into financing for solar PV system on a new garage. I've been sitting on my hands with what I own. I have not done many of my scans but the following interest me now and in the future. QDEL listed with both increasing earnings and sales, that has been a true rarity in IBD. Chart a little sloppy here but could be buyable if it does not sell down. Rapid testing play sounds good in this H1N1 time. STC looks like a ss bear flaglike pattern. I am looking at solar group stocks today, JASO in particular. It has been "rangebound" tight around the 200day, management changed, group neutral but stronger, maybe head shoulder bottom with 3.66 stop. PBS "The Warning" great stuff last night.

Bragging, Ego, Reflection

When my brother in law last visited he asked for stock tip, he did not ask in a very serious manner. His previous visit I'd told him Netflix if it broke above a certain price range, which it did and had since moved up about 30%. He owns Harley, John Deere, and Kroger, every now and then I glance at them and have not been impressed. Well this time I pulled up the chart for Conseco life, CNO. Showed him what I thought was the consolidation around 5, drew a trend line, explained that I thought it was buyable then and there. After the pop it has taken this week, I want to call and brag! I suspect he did not buy any, he is kinda set in his ways. He mentioned waiting for certain price targets to come and then he was going to cash out for CDs.

By being aware of those around us and their investment philosophies we can learn a lot about the psyche of the public. I find some of this instructive, much of it gives me gratititude. First off, solely due to following the price action of the major indices in relation to moving averages, I only experienced a 12% drawdown in 2008. Few people withdrew their funds, they have certainly not moved them back into the market. THose that have done this stock up on guns and ammo, or have gold hoarded ( I am amazed at how much a friend has). They got out worried about the fiat currency system, listened to the news a lot but really had no disciplined method that told them to get out. They also have no disciplined method to get back in the market. That to me is the biggest fault. They have been missing out on the chance to get filthy rich!

Time magazine cover suggests average 401K is valued around 45K? Work harder, save more, spend less people.

A guy at work yesterday, knowing I am interested in retirement accounts, asked me about borrowing from 401K process. Honestly I have no flippin idea how to do this because it is absolutely stupid. Avoid at all costs.

I talked to a gal married to a guy that trades. When they first met, she bragged how he doubled her account in months. Says he also used to daytrade in a group, made a lot of money at it. For some reason he is working for the hospital full time now, you do the math. I know they got out of the market, have not yet gone back in because he is convinced that the market is going to fall apart. DUDE, we have universal worldwide agreement in this rally! Nobody knows when it will end, but it has been a rally. In my opinion, anyone with decently developed analysis could have made some good money.

My current trading is horribly boring. I miss the thrill of big bucks in and out, the hunt, the highs and lows. But I ended up missing the money worse. Post trade analysis has helped me to change finally and I richer and sleeping better for it.

I'd like to get my coworkers rich, being a nurse is really tough at times, the non financial rewards do not often come. If I could figure out some way to add a 401K gadget tracker I would. Real estate is still okay but AF Europac and a MidCap fund are the current leaders.

I have finished the Curtis Faith Turtle book. Good stuff for basic systems people, good methods for their system which could be adaptable without too much effort into an average Joes trading setup. I most liked taking out of it the fact that those that trade for their ego needs will get quashed. I need to be mindful of this and search for ego satisfaction other ways. So much for bragging.

Its early here, time to get down to research.