Nothing of interest. I am surprised. But I am picky.
Most of what I have reported on here for IPO research remains on my quote screen. I have owned most of them at one time or another, generally taking small gains. VSI surprised me with downward move, they seem to remain a well run company. I think CPTS could now be a double from when I first watched it, I just never held onto any confidence. DXCM and PODD remain solid, just don't seem to have enough of a target market for what I am looking for. A vaccine that everyone takes every year is much better gamble than a company that makes devices that only a portion of diabetics would use. Solazyme bears some watching though I have not kept up with them well due to price action. SCTY strikes me as high risk, especially before IPO lock up. Perhaps after June 11, with better institutional following I will consider.
CLNE strikes me as one to follow now. There is a lot bad to think about it but the chart screams long term support and buying, I just don't see quality when I scan who owns the thing. If price starts moving up and better owners step in, I'd consider buying. But I have only started to watch this one and need to study more.
I try to swing a big bat. I am studying game film of the pitchers and am waiting for my pitch. I've now got my first ever double and want a game winning grand slam.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Friday, May 10, 2013
Virus Like particle vaccine research.
This is a work in progress and I have found blogger to not allow things to go smoothly. I am not sure how polished I will get this but I need to start typing as I go.
Vaccine approval process article with links to follow at the end: http://www.path.org/publications/files/VAC_understanding_fs.pdf
Academic paper expounding on above: http://faculty.washington.edu/peterg/papers/HudgensGilbertSelfSMMR.pdf
Slidshare on approval process: http://www.slideshare.net/rwmalonemd/Clinical-Vaccine-Development-Introduction
Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus-like_particle
I am mainly interested in a company called Novavax, first came to light years ago when I got stung in bird flu hysteria. Like a dog to vomit I have watched this pile and have an increased interest. I have spent some time reading a lot of their site and publications, think I have written about them before. I am reading further on competitors. It seems like a lot of companies have similar technologies, I have not seen discussions on why one company might be better than another. What I do see is that Fidelity owns 15% of NVAX, though it is only a 303M market cap company which means they have invested only 45 M.
NVAX: Long history in business. Partnered with GE, Cadila in India, LG in South Korea. Barda-Path help with funding. Many things in pipeline. Uses fall army worm. I am not sure of the benefit of using an insect compared to a plant or even an egg. Market seems large for RSV (all newborns), and anything flue related (they estimate growing market from 3.6 B now to 4.7B in 10 years).
Medicago MDCGF in Canadian smaller capped company that works with VLP in tobacco plants. 4 weeks to testable product. Has a RTP NC office, I need to go visit. Seems smaller scale with fewer candidates. Very thinly traded OTC, like 15K shares a day. SP report here: http://solutions.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/WS/EntryServlet?pc=IVS&tracking=IVSMEDICAGO_INC&auth=userA&pagename=encrStockReportPDF&company=116138171134164074121236231068161220198195146032
Ligocyte has been purchased by Takeda for 60M, not traded, main candidate is for norovirus/gastroenteritis. Not a big market but others think if you get sick from norov you will get the vaccine.
Other companies:
Oxford Expression Technologies: UK based provider of training and supplies. private
VLP Biotech: private, service company with hints of future vaccines from 2010
Technovax-private VLP developer that has not started testing yet.
VLP vaccine note: I had naively thought this was brand new technology but it already has safe accepted products on the market. The two HPV vaccines marketed to young teens are from VLP.
I like NVAX for now, expect they could be a multibagger if they win first arrival advantage or get bought out. It can take many years for this and I am willing to wait. JAZZ and DNDN are examples of what can happen with smaller captive market hysteria, and VLP could be larger captive market. It is tough to arrive at target price. I recall that a company might be worth 4-10x yearly sales. So if they captured just 1B of potential vaccine market, market cap could be 4B for share price of $26.6, without any other vaccines being approved and without accounting for over exhuberance. RSV vaccine could add more as there are nearly 4M births per year in the U.S.
Vaccine approval process article with links to follow at the end: http://www.path.org/publications/files/VAC_understanding_fs.pdf
Academic paper expounding on above: http://faculty.washington.edu/peterg/papers/HudgensGilbertSelfSMMR.pdf
Slidshare on approval process: http://www.slideshare.net/rwmalonemd/Clinical-Vaccine-Development-Introduction
Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus-like_particle
I am mainly interested in a company called Novavax, first came to light years ago when I got stung in bird flu hysteria. Like a dog to vomit I have watched this pile and have an increased interest. I have spent some time reading a lot of their site and publications, think I have written about them before. I am reading further on competitors. It seems like a lot of companies have similar technologies, I have not seen discussions on why one company might be better than another. What I do see is that Fidelity owns 15% of NVAX, though it is only a 303M market cap company which means they have invested only 45 M.
NVAX: Long history in business. Partnered with GE, Cadila in India, LG in South Korea. Barda-Path help with funding. Many things in pipeline. Uses fall army worm. I am not sure of the benefit of using an insect compared to a plant or even an egg. Market seems large for RSV (all newborns), and anything flue related (they estimate growing market from 3.6 B now to 4.7B in 10 years).
Medicago MDCGF in Canadian smaller capped company that works with VLP in tobacco plants. 4 weeks to testable product. Has a RTP NC office, I need to go visit. Seems smaller scale with fewer candidates. Very thinly traded OTC, like 15K shares a day. SP report here: http://solutions.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/WS/EntryServlet?pc=IVS&tracking=IVSMEDICAGO_INC&auth=userA&pagename=encrStockReportPDF&company=116138171134164074121236231068161220198195146032
Ligocyte has been purchased by Takeda for 60M, not traded, main candidate is for norovirus/gastroenteritis. Not a big market but others think if you get sick from norov you will get the vaccine.
Other companies:
Oxford Expression Technologies: UK based provider of training and supplies. private
VLP Biotech: private, service company with hints of future vaccines from 2010
Technovax-private VLP developer that has not started testing yet.
VLP vaccine note: I had naively thought this was brand new technology but it already has safe accepted products on the market. The two HPV vaccines marketed to young teens are from VLP.
I like NVAX for now, expect they could be a multibagger if they win first arrival advantage or get bought out. It can take many years for this and I am willing to wait. JAZZ and DNDN are examples of what can happen with smaller captive market hysteria, and VLP could be larger captive market. It is tough to arrive at target price. I recall that a company might be worth 4-10x yearly sales. So if they captured just 1B of potential vaccine market, market cap could be 4B for share price of $26.6, without any other vaccines being approved and without accounting for over exhuberance. RSV vaccine could add more as there are nearly 4M births per year in the U.S.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
NO SHARES LEFT TO SHORT
I am not worried about the action, I see massive pain ahead. Even if not, I am holding for years, not for this action.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Some follow up
I drove around the service center again. Seemed to still be four cars out back. A hired crew was cleaning an S, saw an S and a Roadster in the shop.
Also saw this article at a book store: http://www.waltermagazine.com/its-so-easy-being-green-when-your-ride-looks-like-this/
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Monday, April 22, 2013
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