Novavax Shareholder meeting

This was a first for me.  I have been thinking of going since they announced the date.  I had grand visions of rubbing elbows with bigwigs of investing.  My plan had been to get to the area late yesterday and talk my way into a tour of the plant.  I got there at sunset after DC traffic problems and other errands.

The meeting was to start at 10.  After my morning coffee I set the GPS to go see the new facilities and the current office space.  They were easy to get to from my hotel.  In the immediate area were several other pharmaceutical concerns.  The new plant was just starting to get active, I saw someone that appeared to be arriving for work.  A man was doing something outside along the perimeter, I assume it was pest control or sprinkler maintenance.  At the far end of the parking lot there were three signs designating different areas to meet at in case of emergency.  A large tractor trailer size generator was outside, I assume to keep critical operations going.  I was not presentable so stayed in the car.

I drove then to the office where the meeting was to be held.  A few cars around, a man in a truck doing nothing.

When I came back around 9:30 there were more cars.  Most were from the area.  I did see a BMW from Massachusetts and I wondered if that was a Fidelity man or some out of town mutual fund.  Cars were generally nice, nothing outrageous in expense.  There was a light rain as I approached the locked doors.  I read what signs were there, nothing about the meeting.  Then a woman opened the door for me, normally one has to use an employee badge to get in the building.  A big man was leaning on the desk, struck me as off duty law enforcement (there was a LEO car outside), a pleasant woman at the desk, two young ladies sitting nearby.  After checking in I sat with the young ladies, apparently escorts for the event.  I read a book as I waited.

Present in the meeting were many of the people I'd read about on the website.  There was only one other investor there, not what I was expecting.  Nobody from Massachusetts that I could tell.  Biz meeting held, then CEO talked, then we got to ask questions.  The other investor had been there before, asked some good questions.  Here is what I learned from observation:
1.  RSV market estimated 2B US, 5B worldwide per year.  Likely on the website, but this figure sunk in hard.
2.  They are developing H7N9 candidate.  I knew nothing about this possible pandemic.
From asking I learned:
1.  Animal testing is contracted out.
2.  Business plan for marketing not much of an issue.  For pandemics the CEO deals with government.  For flu, only a few people needed to sell all the can make right now.  For RSV, would need more of a salesforce, depending upon what their partnerships were at the time.
3.  Medicago and others developing VLP vaccines should favor already established systems for growth.  A PHD mentioned that in years past the US government started a vaccine program using mosquitoes.  The first person it was tested on had an anaphylactic reaction.
4.  HPV vaccines developed with yeast.
5.  They are only working with Fall army Worm cells and have been able to develop everything they wanted using this.  PHD did suggest there might be limitations to this.

Reviewing this meeting in my head on the drive home today, I am left with the following thoughts.
1.  Considering PHD buying 100,000 shares of late, I'd say more good stuff coming.
2.  They are banking on RSV.
3.  CEO would not answer clearly what timeline exists for the future.  Tough to tell if that was normal, avoidance, or something else.  I'd want to follow up on this more.  Next year.
4.  I'll hold what I have.
5.  Patient investors ought to reap great benefit if this company executes well.
6.  My back of the napkin price target based just on RSV approval is now $33 minimum (83 maximum).

Short interest

This is the highest available share count I have seen.  My guess is that short term holders are giving over quality company to those that want to cover.  Heck, I sold a little and sold my long held options for 450% profit.  I still own a lot of stock...

Traffic over Profits

I really hate what I observe in the investing arena, especially in the day and swing trading crowd.  Everybody has questions and doubts so rather than reflecting inward they turn to others.  These others seem to know what is going on, but upon further examination all they care about is internet traffic and subscriptions.

Dan Zanger:  I take a look at his twitter stuff, he seems to stay on top of the market but he does not disclose his own trading results other than audited results from a long time ago.  Has he reverted to mean?  Take a  look around your idols in the investing world and judge their performance before listening to their message.

It just seems like nobody knows nothing and that there are too many sheep getting shorn.

TSLA secondary

So first an observation of short interest.  The list at IB seems to indicate short term players with shorting and covering.  Currently there is 400K shares available.  I am not sure what the comp is to look at.  Logically lost of shorts should be covered.  My guess and intuition is that they have not yet really pulled them in.

Rumor is the secondary priced 2.7 million shares at $92.24.  Absolutely awesome.  Me thinks those waiting for pullback will be buying this one higher.

Medicago research and TSLA update

I had to travel and stopped by the Medicago facility in RTP, NC.  It was a very large new modern building, lots of people working, or I should say there were 30 or more cars there.  No bikes in the bike rack.  There was another vaccine company just up the road.  A young man greeted me when I came in the door.  He removed his headphones and assisted me in trying to obtain a tour.  I quickly gleaned from him that I knew much more about what his company does then he had learned in his time there.  While waiting for someone to come give me a tour (and to ask why tobacco instead of other growth vectors) I could see in a glass wall into an area where it seemed like plants were being worked on, perhaps to dip them in the solution seen in the company video.  Several people could be seen observing the process, none were in the fancy white suits from the video.

The lady came down and seemed like she had her bitch on, I got an instant sense that this was not to be someone helpful.  I presented myself as a potential investor interested in seeing the facilities and wanted to ask some questions about the process.  I was referred to someone in Quebec.  I won't be following up on that.

I drove around the building.  They have the largest indoor greenhouse I've ever seen.  I now assume they could produce product all year, but do not know.  Only a few vehicles parked out back.  As I completed my exterior tour, a sign that I'd missed came into vision.  "Medicago is a tobacco free campus".  I'd stay away from this tobacco stock for quite a while but it was nice to see the place.  Perhaps I should call before I go visit Novavax next week?


I went by the Tesla service center.  Three cars wrapped, indicating they were ready for delivery.  Several more being worked on.  It looks to me like they need a larger service center to help expansion.

TSLA Short interest

I follow the shorts in TSLA.  The major reporting seems to be every 2 to 4 weeks which makes it tough to see day to day action.  My broker does not make data public, they are for retail.  But I found a broker site that lists how many shares are available with regular updates.  Prior to earnings I saw 300K shares available, this number has gone down as far as 45K I think.  Post earnings it bounced around such that prior to close yesterday it was still below the 300K I first observed.  After hours yesterday the stock moved higher a couple bucks, still offered that high this am, and the short figures seem to finally be getting better.  I now see 400K available to short.  This broker is THE big one.

I looked at other issues just to make sure and other stocks have millions of shares available.  For those counting on a squeeze or thinking a squeeze might be getting started, I'd say we could still go a lot higher.  Much of the action could as yet be attributed to trend followers and large institutions establishing a long term long position based upon business outlook and true profitability.  I don't know these things to be true but it is what I am observing.

This is a must read

PHD research into trading