Trading coaches

Over at Elite Trader Forums I recently came across a post that discussed something that really smacked me in the face.  For years my focus has been on profits.  If you have a technique, an idea, something to say, anything to comment on related to trading, I want to weigh that with how well things have worked for you.  I care if you have beaten the market in any regard, weighing the amount of work your methods take with the results they derive.

What I have found as I ask those I encounter (mostly online, few in real life) about their returns has been interesting.
1.  Many won't answer.
2.  Those that do answer generally underperform the market.
3.  Few beat the market averages.
4.  Many justifications exist as to why folks underperform, most are unacceptable in the paradigm I operate in.
5.  It seems that extraordinary efforts are undertaken in many stocks to eak out a gain.  This appears to be emotional trading for some and chasing the latest fad for others.  Just watch someones twitter feed, amazing the change of themes, focus, and timing.

So I focus on profits over and above the averages and find the masses ill prepared to be my trading coach because of their relative underperformance.  What smacked me in the face was someone asking if Phil Jackson could not beat Michael Jordan in basketball, could he coach the Bulls?  I instantly went overboard with guilt, wondering if I have been shutting out those that offered me something.  Perhaps these people that don't do well offer some tool or method I should adopt?

POPPYCOCK!  Phil Jackson was a winner before he coached Jordan.

Perhaps others can coach or teach without beating the market, but I do not want to be the first student.  Show me the records of your students!

If you earn returns in excess of the market I'll listen to you.  All else is useless dribble

Market thoughts

In my opinion Tesla presents great risk short term.  I've considered moving money into other things that are moving better.  I suspect there is some chain yanking.  I see many more people interested in the stock.  This zeal was to be one of the signs for me to get out.  Overall I think the long term outlook is much higher so I will watch this forever...

FB looks strong.  I can't fathom a target, tough to do research and back of napkin calculations.  Will I ever get too old to understand new tech?

NVAX:  I was wrong.  I've responded accordingly.

401K- Europe and international choices were scary for a long while but now outperform the SP500 that I thought to move the funds into.  It seems that buy and hold and/or regular rebalancing per Bogleheads is a good idea.  I suggest you read more at the bogleheads forums.

A few weaks ago I got in a bad space in my head and got all emotional.  I'm glad my trading results don't show it, I was worried they might.  I thought I'd do stupid things and screw up.  If I did things stupidly they are working out okay.

If I were managing my own 401K funds in the same manner as other trading I could have quit work by now.  Do you see that little performance stat YTD to the right?

I'm now on twitter @4nursebee.

Great video

Research and position update

I continue to find reasons to not wait on NVAX, generally they need to at least start stage 3 trials for RSV.  There is some movement in the VLP space with Medicago buy out and the INO pump and dump ongoing.  I have made at least 20% on average and sold the rest today.

I have negative feelings about my excitement for this one of late coupled with what I could have had in TSLA.

Raleigh NC service center has at least 2 new employees including a salesman that can give test drives, even travels with the car to let folks drive at their house.  There were at least 10 cars at the shop, the most I've seen and the Service Manager said they had 26 on the lot last week.  Nothing was said, but I got the vibe they have plans for larger service center and/or sales location.  A couple came in to pick up their car while I was there!  Service Manager spoke well about how things were going to be with supercharger network.

I added today, prepared to not sell again.  If it drops down with earnings I will consider adding more.

Mark Zuckerburg

I find this company leader and his company difficult to ignore.  The stock is moving into recent new highs, is in a new market, is executing, scared out weak hands.  TSLA in a way is teaching me about buying new highs in great growth stocks, they are buyable.  I lightened up on TSLA earlier as it continued to move up well, including with some scared money in a margin account that would have had massive gains now.  So late yesterday and this am I lightened up on my NVAX position and bought FB.  I'd considered some ITM leaps but had to wait for settled funds so just bought stock.

I'm now starting to do my first research on the company...

NVAX might come back to bite me but I still own a lot.  They need stage 3 results to move well, that can take years.  I'm able to find other justifications but it is a gut feel learned from experience.

CwH?

Good news and chart pattern

Novavax moving up, likely multifactorial:
1.  It is a growth story worthy of owning.
2.  Scared money scared away.
3.  ONXX sympathy move.
4.  Good RSV news for elderly this am.
I expect it will take some time but it looks like we could see right hand of a cup kind of price action.  I'm not adding but break above 2.77 confirms good stuff in the future.

Click image if you want larger.