Retail vaccine costs have risen

Good article  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/health/Vaccine-Costs-Soaring-Paying-Till-It-Hurts.html?_r=1

Sponsorship

In order from largest of my holdings to smallest: 62.78%, 55.14%, and 75.8%.

Some thoughts on having an edge

Driving down the road I was pondering having an edge in the markets.  I've seen some discussions on the net about a trading edge, how it is needed.  Many involved in the market seem to want a fast buck on a fast trade.  They seek out an edge to turn this profit, exploiting some weakness or vulnerability.  These edges seem to come from many angles:
superior technology such as HFT frontrunning
pattern analysis
fundamental analysis
trading based upon indicators of which there are many
a feel/intuition/gut
cutting losses and riding winners
trend trading
and I suspect the list gets ever more complicated

What is my edge?  To begin with I accept the short term trading is unprofitable, unhealthy, and/or very difficult.  Then, factor in that I do not need the money so pressure is very low.  The big factor in my edge is that is does not disappear or change over time.  Any regular short term edge will be found and used such that it disappears.  My edge is patience.  My edge is that great growth companies grow and change the world.  Having an IPO to grow the business makes sense (kind of like hey gang we have this great idea but need money to get it off the ground).  My edge comes in learning about the management of a company over time, learning the business plan.  My edge is not (for the most part) succumbing to emotion.  My edge comes from following FIDO and perhaps Lord Abbott.  My edge comes from not investing in what I can't understand.  My edge comes from reading everything about a company (how many retail investors have read an S-1?).  My edge comes from leaning into mistakes, learning from them.  My edge comes from an investing plan and regularly reviewing IPOs.  My edge comes from knowing that the market is not fair, we can't all win, knowing it is zero sum.  My edge comes from trying to know who is on the other side of the trade.  My edge comes from critical analysis of others and trying my best to trust nobody.  My edge comes from focusing on results, not creative writing.

My edge comes from wanting it more and working harder.

Can the tea leaves be read?

Click for larger

GPRO and comments regarding ibankcoin

So I had not written up a report on GPRO but I'd read enough on the company to know that there was too much I not wrap my head around for me to come up with a future valuation.  The founder of the company was selling a lot of shares at the secondary.  The site is modern with lots of fancy videos.  They are permeating the market such that stories are written in the New Yorker on how vacations get ruined when someone misses their shot.  Perhaps I am too old to understand future growth and I find little of value in what their products offer to the planet.

As a foolish freshman in the market I read many market related sites searching for meaning and hot tips.  I made many trades based upon some whiff of smoke that reached my emotional brain causing click click mouse reactions.  I took up any offer of free trials to paid sites and frequently ended up subscribing.  The end result for me extreme highs and lows of emotional states and account balances.  I adapted and changed and now approach the market with at least some sophomoric sensibility.

I still go back and look at old sites of value.  One of those is ibankcoin.  ibankcoin is a site that offers commentary on the markets, supposedly from someone that has been around a while.  There also seems to be paid and volunteer writers and paid subscription services with hot tips, screeners, and overbought/oversold indicators.  Following them for a while it is amazing to see how poorly the main person trades, how poor the rationale for some of his trades are, and how poor his results have been.  They offered an educational seminar but the proprietor remained anonymous.  How the heck do people pay someone that won't show his face, has a losing track record, is a poor trader, and whose main interest running the site seems to be the recurring revenue stream?

To be fair, there are many in the market that offer paid services that I would critique similarly.  Dan Zanger had some great years with audited results from many years ago, still sells monthly products.  He does list "past winners" but not any losers or actual results.  Brian Shannon has a great book on the market, sells actionable ideas via a service, but does not share performance data.  Charles Kirk of the Kirk report is similar, he used to show performance data (it struck me then as sub par), he used to show actual trades (infrequent and cautious) but he does not share data now.

My advice to those that are green in the market, be wary of what you do with your money.  The wolves are out there.  Study what works.  Become an old rich person by living below your means, save as much as possible, put a large portion of your market funds in low cost index funds.  If you want to play the market with individual stocks find out what works for you.

Number 27

http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/TMT_us_tmt/us_tmt_Fast500_2014_ranking_111114.pdf

Mini report MCUR

They have a unique product that is certainly needed.  There are several things that concern me at this point:  low volume, little sponsorship, and mainly that the market is limited to very specific issues.  Because of the limited market it no longer appeals to me.  I've seen other stocks I passed on do well, perhaps this one will also.