Sunday, January 3, 2016

ALXN

I followed this company back when it was trading near $25, kind of kicked myself for not buying in to it.  It is now 190ish.  Regulatory time frame for Solaris:
09/06  submitted for regulatory approval
11/06  FDA granted it priority review
03/07  approved
09/11  approved for an additional indication

Price action:
9/5 7.5      11/5 4.59    38% decline, 1/6 recover    2,400% gain since 9/5, 1.5 years prior to product.
3/6 9.55     5/6 7.45      22%, 11/6 recover
11/6  11.45  3/7 8.78    23%, 3/7 recover
10/7   20.03    3/8  12.32    38%  7/8 recover
It took until 2010 to clear out the $25 range

Lessons:
Lots of volatility in price
Price mostly recovers within a year.
The climb is not really fast, especially at the approval time frame.  Revenues really do matter, take time to recognize.
Price can double in the year or two before approval (double from previous peak even).
Gotta sit tight to be right.


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