Account balance has been painful.
I've added as able.
Top line results expected next 3 months.
Ownership >77% now with large short position.
More ownership data coming out over the next month, I expect good data.
If they execute and news is good I will hold.
If news is bad the trade is off.
Monday, April 11, 2016
Friday, February 12, 2016
Last place
It would be nice if the tides changed. Ongoing results here: http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Sunday, January 3, 2016
INCYTE INCY
Timeline for blockbuster drug Jakafi
6/8/11 NDA
8/3/11 FDA accepts filing
11/16/11 1st approval, 2nd indication approval comes 12/4/14
This one made some wild moves:
2/11/8 $12.83 11/7/8 1.85, a whopping 86% decline, long recovery until 3/8/10 25 months
4/5/10 14.87 5/3/10 8.5 43% decline, recover 9/20/10 5 months
5/2/11 21.15 11/21/11 11.76 44% decline, recover 4/23/12 11 months
now above $108, a 745% gain since 2008
Lessons:
Bear market brutal but sitting tight can work out.
Options, I've used Leaps before, perhaps better to buy when they have declined 30-40% off a peak.
Click image for larger
6/8/11 NDA
8/3/11 FDA accepts filing
11/16/11 1st approval, 2nd indication approval comes 12/4/14
This one made some wild moves:
2/11/8 $12.83 11/7/8 1.85, a whopping 86% decline, long recovery until 3/8/10 25 months
4/5/10 14.87 5/3/10 8.5 43% decline, recover 9/20/10 5 months
5/2/11 21.15 11/21/11 11.76 44% decline, recover 4/23/12 11 months
now above $108, a 745% gain since 2008
Lessons:
Bear market brutal but sitting tight can work out.
Options, I've used Leaps before, perhaps better to buy when they have declined 30-40% off a peak.
Click image for larger
ALXN
I followed this company back when it was trading near $25, kind of kicked myself for not buying in to it. It is now 190ish. Regulatory time frame for Solaris:
09/06 submitted for regulatory approval
11/06 FDA granted it priority review
03/07 approved
09/11 approved for an additional indication
Price action:
9/5 7.5 11/5 4.59 38% decline, 1/6 recover 2,400% gain since 9/5, 1.5 years prior to product.
3/6 9.55 5/6 7.45 22%, 11/6 recover
11/6 11.45 3/7 8.78 23%, 3/7 recover
10/7 20.03 3/8 12.32 38% 7/8 recover
It took until 2010 to clear out the $25 range
Lessons:
Lots of volatility in price
Price mostly recovers within a year.
The climb is not really fast, especially at the approval time frame. Revenues really do matter, take time to recognize.
Price can double in the year or two before approval (double from previous peak even).
Gotta sit tight to be right.
09/06 submitted for regulatory approval
11/06 FDA granted it priority review
03/07 approved
09/11 approved for an additional indication
Price action:
9/5 7.5 11/5 4.59 38% decline, 1/6 recover 2,400% gain since 9/5, 1.5 years prior to product.
3/6 9.55 5/6 7.45 22%, 11/6 recover
11/6 11.45 3/7 8.78 23%, 3/7 recover
10/7 20.03 3/8 12.32 38% 7/8 recover
It took until 2010 to clear out the $25 range
Lessons:
Lots of volatility in price
Price mostly recovers within a year.
The climb is not really fast, especially at the approval time frame. Revenues really do matter, take time to recognize.
Price can double in the year or two before approval (double from previous peak even).
Gotta sit tight to be right.
Saturday, January 2, 2016
A potential comparable
Tough to find old charts on this one. Amgen received approval for Epogen in June 1989. The share price had a steady albeit bumpy ride up until the approval, thereafter it took a while to grow. In June 86 the price was about 51 cents, June 87 it was 75 cents, and about $1 when the product came on the market.
In 1992 the price had grown to a high of 9.72. In Feb of 93 the price dropped as low as 3.97, a 59% drop! Recovery was long and hard for this one, it took until 1995.
There were further bumps in the road for this one in 1997, when it declined 34% from May to September. By July of 98 it recovered, and in March of 99 it had doubled. January 2000 it was $75.
This company now trades in the 160's albeit 30 years past its pre approval stage. 320 times your money. Good and bad times will come and go for the market, but buying and holding great product companies of the future can work well.
Click image for larger.
In 1992 the price had grown to a high of 9.72. In Feb of 93 the price dropped as low as 3.97, a 59% drop! Recovery was long and hard for this one, it took until 1995.
There were further bumps in the road for this one in 1997, when it declined 34% from May to September. By July of 98 it recovered, and in March of 99 it had doubled. January 2000 it was $75.
This company now trades in the 160's albeit 30 years past its pre approval stage. 320 times your money. Good and bad times will come and go for the market, but buying and holding great product companies of the future can work well.
Click image for larger.
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