My banker has left me with supplies in the vault. I am counting my money, evaluating for the future. Come Thursday I will get out and put forth new efforts for continued success.
I wish you well.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
NVAX week
>4 million shares traded at closing price.
Someone has been buying.
Do not be afraid.
Click image for larger
Someone has been buying.
Do not be afraid.
Click image for larger
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Tesla
Perhaps the last time I crusied by the service center and saw no cars I did not catch that they were moving down the road. I saw new location yesterday and they had 8-10 cars on site.
My current holding has enough profit over less than a month to buy a fully decked out Tesla S!
Intraday today, a major milestone/goal was accomplished. Someone should hire me to manage money.
My current holding has enough profit over less than a month to buy a fully decked out Tesla S!
Intraday today, a major milestone/goal was accomplished. Someone should hire me to manage money.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Novavax
It was an emotional weekend as I discovered two new message boards discussing stocks. I got excited over prospects for NVAX reading one of them.
There are three catalysts to propel shares higher. The first is the continued accumulation of shares by large investors. The second is continued good news as they engage in stage 3 trials late next year and then get positive results and government approval. The third, and cause for my excitement, is the potential for a buyout. End of the day 12/3/13 volume jumped as price was near $4. Some people suggested this was someone accumulating the start of a buyout position, just under the reportable 5% position. I don't know the deal on these things, but it sure sounds nice.
I look at a company like Jazz, one I did not believe in, that has grown exponentially in just a few years. They have a market cap >6 times of NVAX based on 820M in sales, mostly in one product delivered to just 11,000 people. Surely NVAX could grow 6x if they could sell a vaccine.
Cons of owning NVAX:
waiting for news
only 2 yrs of funds
No profit
Whims of trials and approvals
Pros:
They are executing.
They have good technology.
Sponsorship is increasing.
Management owns it. (I just learned Erck has almost 3M shares) http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1000694.htm
They have 2 years of expenses.
Price movement out of >4 year period
Volume higher
Sector movement.
Back of napkin target $33-83
The emotionally derived greed brought on buyout possibilities has me considering buying more now instead of the confirmation of new and continued highs.
This strikes me as a Weinstein Tale of the Tape kind of pick.
There are three catalysts to propel shares higher. The first is the continued accumulation of shares by large investors. The second is continued good news as they engage in stage 3 trials late next year and then get positive results and government approval. The third, and cause for my excitement, is the potential for a buyout. End of the day 12/3/13 volume jumped as price was near $4. Some people suggested this was someone accumulating the start of a buyout position, just under the reportable 5% position. I don't know the deal on these things, but it sure sounds nice.
I look at a company like Jazz, one I did not believe in, that has grown exponentially in just a few years. They have a market cap >6 times of NVAX based on 820M in sales, mostly in one product delivered to just 11,000 people. Surely NVAX could grow 6x if they could sell a vaccine.
Cons of owning NVAX:
waiting for news
only 2 yrs of funds
No profit
Whims of trials and approvals
Pros:
They are executing.
They have good technology.
Sponsorship is increasing.
Management owns it. (I just learned Erck has almost 3M shares) http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1000694.htm
They have 2 years of expenses.
Price movement out of >4 year period
Volume higher
Sector movement.
Back of napkin target $33-83
The emotionally derived greed brought on buyout possibilities has me considering buying more now instead of the confirmation of new and continued highs.
This strikes me as a Weinstein Tale of the Tape kind of pick.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
NVAX current holders
Compare this to the past here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/04/nvax-ownership.html
VLP research: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/virus-like-particle-vaccine-research.html
A competitor, I think since sold: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/medicago-research-and-tsla-update.html
More research: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/06/novavax-shareholder-meeting.html
VLP research: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/virus-like-particle-vaccine-research.html
A competitor, I think since sold: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/medicago-research-and-tsla-update.html
More research: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/06/novavax-shareholder-meeting.html
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Timber!
Pain, churning, not working well- all signs to get out of the way. Former leaders cracked. Others read this well. I did not but have preserved capital and hope to stay on the sidelines for a while.
I am looking for TSLA entry over the next year or two. Model X and Gen 3 announcements, along with (un)expected announcements could drive further investment decisions by market movers. There will be some explosive short term movements before ideal entry.
TWTR needs to shake the tree and get back to the IPO price.
All of this action strikes me as the hidden hand of the market having distributed to the public very well. Now they get to hold the bag.
I am looking for TSLA entry over the next year or two. Model X and Gen 3 announcements, along with (un)expected announcements could drive further investment decisions by market movers. There will be some explosive short term movements before ideal entry.
TWTR needs to shake the tree and get back to the IPO price.
All of this action strikes me as the hidden hand of the market having distributed to the public very well. Now they get to hold the bag.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Things to say
I am rereading Livermore related books and find them full of gems. I expect I could not relate as well in the past.
IPO research July to Sept yielded little. SFM ss? CTRL(slow reading S-1) looks very ready long, PGEM worth watching. Both are too small for me right now. PCRFY added to my list as a tandem play with TSLA.
TSLA at 50 day but no near term catalyst. I expect it might not need a catalyst but it is not attractive to me. I'm watching and want to catch a bull run again. Some distribution imo.
I'm surprised at cautious statements of others. sp500 at all time highs, follow leaders.
Earnings play tough now. FB tonight, I've been holding with small losses.
IPO research July to Sept yielded little. SFM ss? CTRL(slow reading S-1) looks very ready long, PGEM worth watching. Both are too small for me right now. PCRFY added to my list as a tandem play with TSLA.
TSLA at 50 day but no near term catalyst. I expect it might not need a catalyst but it is not attractive to me. I'm watching and want to catch a bull run again. Some distribution imo.
I'm surprised at cautious statements of others. sp500 at all time highs, follow leaders.
Earnings play tough now. FB tonight, I've been holding with small losses.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Size matters
I'm starting to swing a bigger stick and find myself with little tolerance for smaller cap stocks. Stocks like NVAX and ENPH and just too low priced low cap non movers. I am really starting to favor big cap must have issues, when the bat gets swung on these they seem to really move better. I had bought a lot of ENPH but the chance of not being able to get out was too great, I took a small profit.
I've had a formula at my desk for how much of an issue to buy based upon volatility, if I ever go small cap again I need to use something like this for SMALL position size in these things. There is so much more comfort with a large cap like TSLA, FB, SCTY LNKD NFLX etc
I've had a formula at my desk for how much of an issue to buy based upon volatility, if I ever go small cap again I need to use something like this for SMALL position size in these things. There is so much more comfort with a large cap like TSLA, FB, SCTY LNKD NFLX etc
SCTY research
Another better never late story, first comments here
This is another one of those companies that is a little complicated for me to wrap my mind around but I like anyway, kind of like Facebook. My analysis of TSLA allowed me to figure out some forward price targets based upon historical car data and known prices. When thinking about NEW businesses using new business models, that comparison is not as easy. I have followed solar city on the stock charts nearly since the IPO. I am a solar producer and will add more panels in a few years.
I want to write about this using the Kobrick BASM model to guide me, kind of as a checklist.
Business Model: SCTY with the Rive boys and Elon wanted to get into the solar business. It sounds like on a road trip (I am thinking in the style of Harold and Kumar) they thought about this. I think they went to solar trade shows, analyzed the participants, came up with a game plan. What they do is raise funds from investment pools or companies like Google, use that money to install a free solar system on homes in like 14 states, then sell electricity at a discounted rate to the occupant. They also install large systems for companies like Walmart. My guess or assumption is they pay investors a percent on the money, then pocket the difference between that and the rate they bill for. In some states, this rate is quite high (CA charges peak rates more than double my rate at home).
Assumptions: Clean Energy is good. People like cheaper energy.
Strategy: Some of this is wrapped up with the biz model. They are growing into new markets, partnering with large builders and suppliers, do large installations, have value added services to provide after a virtual energy audit.
Management: Elon gives them only a few hours a month per a report I saw. Rive brothers are his cousins. One of them is serious athlete in odd sport. Not as proven in business I think, but steering this new young ship well.
Other: I have a tough time knowing exactly what the full potential of this company is. They offer most home owners a compelling product. From a homeowners perspective, the initial outlay for solar is very expensive, I took out a loan. Many might not be able to do this. So this company handles all of that, all a customer has to do is buy cheaper electric from them. This makes it easy to decide. I think they are only in high energy cost states so profits ought to be good. I think they make the spread between price they install for along with servicing costs paid to financiers and the price they get to charge for the electric. Not yet profitable but they ought to be later this year. They are working on some kind of debt ratings deal, my guess is packaging up old debt in a manner that the risk can be professionally quantified such that many other investment pools can own SCTY debt. They have 3 billion in funds available to build out systems at present. There are likely some tax credits available to financiers and SCTY after buildout. They seem to have an integrated outfit with acquisitions helping. Solar can play a big part of energy independence. They are likely helping with ecar adapatation by installations of charge locations.
Risk: End of subsidies, CNG, a chance of better performing assets (from the financiers perspective), cheap energy. Read S-1 for more discussion. I did.
Chart thoughts: What a freaking great return off the IPO price! Good job whoever did that. IPO risk gone, early sellers can be out. Here is what I noted recently. I am sitting around at my computer a few days ago (10/8) scared and emotional in a way I should have grown out of. I was talking specifics with my spouse, sometimes not a good idea. I sell out of FB with half the profit I'd had, and less profit that I'd have if I had held. So I sell out, the emotional pressure leaves my body and I can watch a little more peacefully. GLARING at me is the fact that SCTY had not gone down like the rest of the world. In fact, it was making new recent highs on decent volume. I swear to GOD I saw this. Perhaps in the future I will buy it! So what happens is it soon zooms like 16-17% based upon some news event, just the trigger to make this thing explode. How the hell to handle this one at this juncture? Well, I put my big boy pants on, buy LEAPS and stock. By end of day both positions are profitable. Price hangs out a couple of days, then busts a move again, so I add.
Click image for larger
I recall someone saying that the earliest market movers in each cycle can go on to be the big winners!
This is another one of those companies that is a little complicated for me to wrap my mind around but I like anyway, kind of like Facebook. My analysis of TSLA allowed me to figure out some forward price targets based upon historical car data and known prices. When thinking about NEW businesses using new business models, that comparison is not as easy. I have followed solar city on the stock charts nearly since the IPO. I am a solar producer and will add more panels in a few years.
I want to write about this using the Kobrick BASM model to guide me, kind of as a checklist.
Business Model: SCTY with the Rive boys and Elon wanted to get into the solar business. It sounds like on a road trip (I am thinking in the style of Harold and Kumar) they thought about this. I think they went to solar trade shows, analyzed the participants, came up with a game plan. What they do is raise funds from investment pools or companies like Google, use that money to install a free solar system on homes in like 14 states, then sell electricity at a discounted rate to the occupant. They also install large systems for companies like Walmart. My guess or assumption is they pay investors a percent on the money, then pocket the difference between that and the rate they bill for. In some states, this rate is quite high (CA charges peak rates more than double my rate at home).
Assumptions: Clean Energy is good. People like cheaper energy.
Strategy: Some of this is wrapped up with the biz model. They are growing into new markets, partnering with large builders and suppliers, do large installations, have value added services to provide after a virtual energy audit.
Management: Elon gives them only a few hours a month per a report I saw. Rive brothers are his cousins. One of them is serious athlete in odd sport. Not as proven in business I think, but steering this new young ship well.
Other: I have a tough time knowing exactly what the full potential of this company is. They offer most home owners a compelling product. From a homeowners perspective, the initial outlay for solar is very expensive, I took out a loan. Many might not be able to do this. So this company handles all of that, all a customer has to do is buy cheaper electric from them. This makes it easy to decide. I think they are only in high energy cost states so profits ought to be good. I think they make the spread between price they install for along with servicing costs paid to financiers and the price they get to charge for the electric. Not yet profitable but they ought to be later this year. They are working on some kind of debt ratings deal, my guess is packaging up old debt in a manner that the risk can be professionally quantified such that many other investment pools can own SCTY debt. They have 3 billion in funds available to build out systems at present. There are likely some tax credits available to financiers and SCTY after buildout. They seem to have an integrated outfit with acquisitions helping. Solar can play a big part of energy independence. They are likely helping with ecar adapatation by installations of charge locations.
Risk: End of subsidies, CNG, a chance of better performing assets (from the financiers perspective), cheap energy. Read S-1 for more discussion. I did.
Chart thoughts: What a freaking great return off the IPO price! Good job whoever did that. IPO risk gone, early sellers can be out. Here is what I noted recently. I am sitting around at my computer a few days ago (10/8) scared and emotional in a way I should have grown out of. I was talking specifics with my spouse, sometimes not a good idea. I sell out of FB with half the profit I'd had, and less profit that I'd have if I had held. So I sell out, the emotional pressure leaves my body and I can watch a little more peacefully. GLARING at me is the fact that SCTY had not gone down like the rest of the world. In fact, it was making new recent highs on decent volume. I swear to GOD I saw this. Perhaps in the future I will buy it! So what happens is it soon zooms like 16-17% based upon some news event, just the trigger to make this thing explode. How the hell to handle this one at this juncture? Well, I put my big boy pants on, buy LEAPS and stock. By end of day both positions are profitable. Price hangs out a couple of days, then busts a move again, so I add.
Click image for larger
I recall someone saying that the earliest market movers in each cycle can go on to be the big winners!
Saturday, October 12, 2013
ENPH research and update
First post on this here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/04/enph.html
ENPH manufactures and sells microinverter modules for solar panels. Capitalization is small for now at 361 M for now. I am a customer, will have to pay them $2 a year per module for the monitoring capability. I would like to know how much of their current and future income will come from this. Growth rate looks great, almost 4 million units shipped. Leadership experienced. I seen gentle accumulation, perhaps some rotation away from the early holders. I'd like to see more quality. I can't predict the future but the international expansion and 4th gen module sound good. First mover advantage. Click images for larger.
ENPH manufactures and sells microinverter modules for solar panels. Capitalization is small for now at 361 M for now. I am a customer, will have to pay them $2 a year per module for the monitoring capability. I would like to know how much of their current and future income will come from this. Growth rate looks great, almost 4 million units shipped. Leadership experienced. I seen gentle accumulation, perhaps some rotation away from the early holders. I'd like to see more quality. I can't predict the future but the international expansion and 4th gen module sound good. First mover advantage. Click images for larger.
Trading coaches
Over at Elite Trader Forums I recently came across a post that discussed something that really smacked me in the face. For years my focus has been on profits. If you have a technique, an idea, something to say, anything to comment on related to trading, I want to weigh that with how well things have worked for you. I care if you have beaten the market in any regard, weighing the amount of work your methods take with the results they derive.
What I have found as I ask those I encounter (mostly online, few in real life) about their returns has been interesting.
1. Many won't answer.
2. Those that do answer generally underperform the market.
3. Few beat the market averages.
4. Many justifications exist as to why folks underperform, most are unacceptable in the paradigm I operate in.
5. It seems that extraordinary efforts are undertaken in many stocks to eak out a gain. This appears to be emotional trading for some and chasing the latest fad for others. Just watch someones twitter feed, amazing the change of themes, focus, and timing.
So I focus on profits over and above the averages and find the masses ill prepared to be my trading coach because of their relative underperformance. What smacked me in the face was someone asking if Phil Jackson could not beat Michael Jordan in basketball, could he coach the Bulls? I instantly went overboard with guilt, wondering if I have been shutting out those that offered me something. Perhaps these people that don't do well offer some tool or method I should adopt?
POPPYCOCK! Phil Jackson was a winner before he coached Jordan.
Perhaps others can coach or teach without beating the market, but I do not want to be the first student. Show me the records of your students!
If you earn returns in excess of the market I'll listen to you. All else is useless dribble
What I have found as I ask those I encounter (mostly online, few in real life) about their returns has been interesting.
1. Many won't answer.
2. Those that do answer generally underperform the market.
3. Few beat the market averages.
4. Many justifications exist as to why folks underperform, most are unacceptable in the paradigm I operate in.
5. It seems that extraordinary efforts are undertaken in many stocks to eak out a gain. This appears to be emotional trading for some and chasing the latest fad for others. Just watch someones twitter feed, amazing the change of themes, focus, and timing.
So I focus on profits over and above the averages and find the masses ill prepared to be my trading coach because of their relative underperformance. What smacked me in the face was someone asking if Phil Jackson could not beat Michael Jordan in basketball, could he coach the Bulls? I instantly went overboard with guilt, wondering if I have been shutting out those that offered me something. Perhaps these people that don't do well offer some tool or method I should adopt?
POPPYCOCK! Phil Jackson was a winner before he coached Jordan.
Perhaps others can coach or teach without beating the market, but I do not want to be the first student. Show me the records of your students!
If you earn returns in excess of the market I'll listen to you. All else is useless dribble
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Market thoughts
In my opinion Tesla presents great risk short term. I've considered moving money into other things that are moving better. I suspect there is some chain yanking. I see many more people interested in the stock. This zeal was to be one of the signs for me to get out. Overall I think the long term outlook is much higher so I will watch this forever...
FB looks strong. I can't fathom a target, tough to do research and back of napkin calculations. Will I ever get too old to understand new tech?
NVAX: I was wrong. I've responded accordingly.
401K- Europe and international choices were scary for a long while but now outperform the SP500 that I thought to move the funds into. It seems that buy and hold and/or regular rebalancing per Bogleheads is a good idea. I suggest you read more at the bogleheads forums.
A few weaks ago I got in a bad space in my head and got all emotional. I'm glad my trading results don't show it, I was worried they might. I thought I'd do stupid things and screw up. If I did things stupidly they are working out okay.
If I were managing my own 401K funds in the same manner as other trading I could have quit work by now. Do you see that little performance stat YTD to the right?
I'm now on twitter @4nursebee.
FB looks strong. I can't fathom a target, tough to do research and back of napkin calculations. Will I ever get too old to understand new tech?
NVAX: I was wrong. I've responded accordingly.
401K- Europe and international choices were scary for a long while but now outperform the SP500 that I thought to move the funds into. It seems that buy and hold and/or regular rebalancing per Bogleheads is a good idea. I suggest you read more at the bogleheads forums.
A few weaks ago I got in a bad space in my head and got all emotional. I'm glad my trading results don't show it, I was worried they might. I thought I'd do stupid things and screw up. If I did things stupidly they are working out okay.
If I were managing my own 401K funds in the same manner as other trading I could have quit work by now. Do you see that little performance stat YTD to the right?
I'm now on twitter @4nursebee.
Friday, August 23, 2013
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Research and position update
I continue to find reasons to not wait on NVAX, generally they need to at least start stage 3 trials for RSV. There is some movement in the VLP space with Medicago buy out and the INO pump and dump ongoing. I have made at least 20% on average and sold the rest today.
I have negative feelings about my excitement for this one of late coupled with what I could have had in TSLA.
Raleigh NC service center has at least 2 new employees including a salesman that can give test drives, even travels with the car to let folks drive at their house. There were at least 10 cars at the shop, the most I've seen and the Service Manager said they had 26 on the lot last week. Nothing was said, but I got the vibe they have plans for larger service center and/or sales location. A couple came in to pick up their car while I was there! Service Manager spoke well about how things were going to be with supercharger network.
I added today, prepared to not sell again. If it drops down with earnings I will consider adding more.
I have negative feelings about my excitement for this one of late coupled with what I could have had in TSLA.
Raleigh NC service center has at least 2 new employees including a salesman that can give test drives, even travels with the car to let folks drive at their house. There were at least 10 cars at the shop, the most I've seen and the Service Manager said they had 26 on the lot last week. Nothing was said, but I got the vibe they have plans for larger service center and/or sales location. A couple came in to pick up their car while I was there! Service Manager spoke well about how things were going to be with supercharger network.
I added today, prepared to not sell again. If it drops down with earnings I will consider adding more.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Mark Zuckerburg
I find this company leader and his company difficult to ignore. The stock is moving into recent new highs, is in a new market, is executing, scared out weak hands. TSLA in a way is teaching me about buying new highs in great growth stocks, they are buyable. I lightened up on TSLA earlier as it continued to move up well, including with some scared money in a margin account that would have had massive gains now. So late yesterday and this am I lightened up on my NVAX position and bought FB. I'd considered some ITM leaps but had to wait for settled funds so just bought stock.
I'm now starting to do my first research on the company...
NVAX might come back to bite me but I still own a lot. They need stage 3 results to move well, that can take years. I'm able to find other justifications but it is a gut feel learned from experience.
I'm now starting to do my first research on the company...
NVAX might come back to bite me but I still own a lot. They need stage 3 results to move well, that can take years. I'm able to find other justifications but it is a gut feel learned from experience.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Good news and chart pattern
Novavax moving up, likely multifactorial:
1. It is a growth story worthy of owning.
2. Scared money scared away.
3. ONXX sympathy move.
4. Good RSV news for elderly this am.
I expect it will take some time but it looks like we could see right hand of a cup kind of price action. I'm not adding but break above 2.77 confirms good stuff in the future.
Click image if you want larger.
1. It is a growth story worthy of owning.
2. Scared money scared away.
3. ONXX sympathy move.
4. Good RSV news for elderly this am.
I expect it will take some time but it looks like we could see right hand of a cup kind of price action. I'm not adding but break above 2.77 confirms good stuff in the future.
Click image if you want larger.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Electric cars and book
When I drive around other cars now I really notice the noise. I'm getting older, don't play loud music quite so much, and really appreciate a quiet background. There are days at work that the power goes out and the hum of the lights and the HVAC blowers go off that the level of peace is palpable. Electric offer some of the same. I've had visitors drive up to my house in hybrid cars and not heard the vehicle.
Electric cars offer many other benefits: no oil spills, no gas odors (less carcinogen exposure), no smog, no emissions. The fuel is cheaper and fuel can be had at home.
I'm re-reading what I now consider the best investment book ever written. Tesla naysayers generally have a critical fault, they do not investigate the car. They talk to internal combustion engine people but won't go sit in a car. They worry about purchase price and won't read company investor relations website. They complain about car range without facts. They complain about long distance accessibility of charging without understanding the master plan. If the Tesla bears talked to a Tesla owner or drove in the car they would be better informed.
So back to the book, it early on tells the story of a guy name Dave that bought Xerox when it was starting with copying machines, a new technology. He talked to people that used the product, learned how they enjoyed it. He did his own calculations, figured how large it could be. He bought near the IPO, held for 12 years and got 40X his money. Other stocks mentioned in this book are Dell, Home Depot, Compaq, Microsoft. All were game changers and made the big money. That is what I want!
Read the book The Big Money by Frederick R. Kobrick and go drive a Tesla!
Electric cars offer many other benefits: no oil spills, no gas odors (less carcinogen exposure), no smog, no emissions. The fuel is cheaper and fuel can be had at home.
I'm re-reading what I now consider the best investment book ever written. Tesla naysayers generally have a critical fault, they do not investigate the car. They talk to internal combustion engine people but won't go sit in a car. They worry about purchase price and won't read company investor relations website. They complain about car range without facts. They complain about long distance accessibility of charging without understanding the master plan. If the Tesla bears talked to a Tesla owner or drove in the car they would be better informed.
So back to the book, it early on tells the story of a guy name Dave that bought Xerox when it was starting with copying machines, a new technology. He talked to people that used the product, learned how they enjoyed it. He did his own calculations, figured how large it could be. He bought near the IPO, held for 12 years and got 40X his money. Other stocks mentioned in this book are Dell, Home Depot, Compaq, Microsoft. All were game changers and made the big money. That is what I want!
Read the book The Big Money by Frederick R. Kobrick and go drive a Tesla!
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Novavax Shareholder meeting
This was a first for me. I have been thinking of going since they announced the date. I had grand visions of rubbing elbows with bigwigs of investing. My plan had been to get to the area late yesterday and talk my way into a tour of the plant. I got there at sunset after DC traffic problems and other errands.
The meeting was to start at 10. After my morning coffee I set the GPS to go see the new facilities and the current office space. They were easy to get to from my hotel. In the immediate area were several other pharmaceutical concerns. The new plant was just starting to get active, I saw someone that appeared to be arriving for work. A man was doing something outside along the perimeter, I assume it was pest control or sprinkler maintenance. At the far end of the parking lot there were three signs designating different areas to meet at in case of emergency. A large tractor trailer size generator was outside, I assume to keep critical operations going. I was not presentable so stayed in the car.
I drove then to the office where the meeting was to be held. A few cars around, a man in a truck doing nothing.
When I came back around 9:30 there were more cars. Most were from the area. I did see a BMW from Massachusetts and I wondered if that was a Fidelity man or some out of town mutual fund. Cars were generally nice, nothing outrageous in expense. There was a light rain as I approached the locked doors. I read what signs were there, nothing about the meeting. Then a woman opened the door for me, normally one has to use an employee badge to get in the building. A big man was leaning on the desk, struck me as off duty law enforcement (there was a LEO car outside), a pleasant woman at the desk, two young ladies sitting nearby. After checking in I sat with the young ladies, apparently escorts for the event. I read a book as I waited.
Present in the meeting were many of the people I'd read about on the website. There was only one other investor there, not what I was expecting. Nobody from Massachusetts that I could tell. Biz meeting held, then CEO talked, then we got to ask questions. The other investor had been there before, asked some good questions. Here is what I learned from observation:
1. RSV market estimated 2B US, 5B worldwide per year. Likely on the website, but this figure sunk in hard.
2. They are developing H7N9 candidate. I knew nothing about this possible pandemic.
From asking I learned:
1. Animal testing is contracted out.
2. Business plan for marketing not much of an issue. For pandemics the CEO deals with government. For flu, only a few people needed to sell all the can make right now. For RSV, would need more of a salesforce, depending upon what their partnerships were at the time.
3. Medicago and others developing VLP vaccines should favor already established systems for growth. A PHD mentioned that in years past the US government started a vaccine program using mosquitoes. The first person it was tested on had an anaphylactic reaction.
4. HPV vaccines developed with yeast.
5. They are only working with Fall army Worm cells and have been able to develop everything they wanted using this. PHD did suggest there might be limitations to this.
Reviewing this meeting in my head on the drive home today, I am left with the following thoughts.
1. Considering PHD buying 100,000 shares of late, I'd say more good stuff coming.
2. They are banking on RSV.
3. CEO would not answer clearly what timeline exists for the future. Tough to tell if that was normal, avoidance, or something else. I'd want to follow up on this more. Next year.
4. I'll hold what I have.
5. Patient investors ought to reap great benefit if this company executes well.
6. My back of the napkin price target based just on RSV approval is now $33 minimum (83 maximum).
The meeting was to start at 10. After my morning coffee I set the GPS to go see the new facilities and the current office space. They were easy to get to from my hotel. In the immediate area were several other pharmaceutical concerns. The new plant was just starting to get active, I saw someone that appeared to be arriving for work. A man was doing something outside along the perimeter, I assume it was pest control or sprinkler maintenance. At the far end of the parking lot there were three signs designating different areas to meet at in case of emergency. A large tractor trailer size generator was outside, I assume to keep critical operations going. I was not presentable so stayed in the car.
I drove then to the office where the meeting was to be held. A few cars around, a man in a truck doing nothing.
When I came back around 9:30 there were more cars. Most were from the area. I did see a BMW from Massachusetts and I wondered if that was a Fidelity man or some out of town mutual fund. Cars were generally nice, nothing outrageous in expense. There was a light rain as I approached the locked doors. I read what signs were there, nothing about the meeting. Then a woman opened the door for me, normally one has to use an employee badge to get in the building. A big man was leaning on the desk, struck me as off duty law enforcement (there was a LEO car outside), a pleasant woman at the desk, two young ladies sitting nearby. After checking in I sat with the young ladies, apparently escorts for the event. I read a book as I waited.
Present in the meeting were many of the people I'd read about on the website. There was only one other investor there, not what I was expecting. Nobody from Massachusetts that I could tell. Biz meeting held, then CEO talked, then we got to ask questions. The other investor had been there before, asked some good questions. Here is what I learned from observation:
1. RSV market estimated 2B US, 5B worldwide per year. Likely on the website, but this figure sunk in hard.
2. They are developing H7N9 candidate. I knew nothing about this possible pandemic.
From asking I learned:
1. Animal testing is contracted out.
2. Business plan for marketing not much of an issue. For pandemics the CEO deals with government. For flu, only a few people needed to sell all the can make right now. For RSV, would need more of a salesforce, depending upon what their partnerships were at the time.
3. Medicago and others developing VLP vaccines should favor already established systems for growth. A PHD mentioned that in years past the US government started a vaccine program using mosquitoes. The first person it was tested on had an anaphylactic reaction.
4. HPV vaccines developed with yeast.
5. They are only working with Fall army Worm cells and have been able to develop everything they wanted using this. PHD did suggest there might be limitations to this.
Reviewing this meeting in my head on the drive home today, I am left with the following thoughts.
1. Considering PHD buying 100,000 shares of late, I'd say more good stuff coming.
2. They are banking on RSV.
3. CEO would not answer clearly what timeline exists for the future. Tough to tell if that was normal, avoidance, or something else. I'd want to follow up on this more. Next year.
4. I'll hold what I have.
5. Patient investors ought to reap great benefit if this company executes well.
6. My back of the napkin price target based just on RSV approval is now $33 minimum (83 maximum).
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Short interest
This is the highest available share count I have seen. My guess is that short term holders are giving over quality company to those that want to cover. Heck, I sold a little and sold my long held options for 450% profit. I still own a lot of stock...
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Traffic over Profits
I really hate what I observe in the investing arena, especially in the day and swing trading crowd. Everybody has questions and doubts so rather than reflecting inward they turn to others. These others seem to know what is going on, but upon further examination all they care about is internet traffic and subscriptions.
Dan Zanger: I take a look at his twitter stuff, he seems to stay on top of the market but he does not disclose his own trading results other than audited results from a long time ago. Has he reverted to mean? Take a look around your idols in the investing world and judge their performance before listening to their message.
It just seems like nobody knows nothing and that there are too many sheep getting shorn.
Dan Zanger: I take a look at his twitter stuff, he seems to stay on top of the market but he does not disclose his own trading results other than audited results from a long time ago. Has he reverted to mean? Take a look around your idols in the investing world and judge their performance before listening to their message.
It just seems like nobody knows nothing and that there are too many sheep getting shorn.
Friday, May 17, 2013
TSLA secondary
So first an observation of short interest. The list at IB seems to indicate short term players with shorting and covering. Currently there is 400K shares available. I am not sure what the comp is to look at. Logically lost of shorts should be covered. My guess and intuition is that they have not yet really pulled them in.
Rumor is the secondary priced 2.7 million shares at $92.24. Absolutely awesome. Me thinks those waiting for pullback will be buying this one higher.
Rumor is the secondary priced 2.7 million shares at $92.24. Absolutely awesome. Me thinks those waiting for pullback will be buying this one higher.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Medicago research and TSLA update
I had to travel and stopped by the Medicago facility in RTP, NC. It was a very large new modern building, lots of people working, or I should say there were 30 or more cars there. No bikes in the bike rack. There was another vaccine company just up the road. A young man greeted me when I came in the door. He removed his headphones and assisted me in trying to obtain a tour. I quickly gleaned from him that I knew much more about what his company does then he had learned in his time there. While waiting for someone to come give me a tour (and to ask why tobacco instead of other growth vectors) I could see in a glass wall into an area where it seemed like plants were being worked on, perhaps to dip them in the solution seen in the company video. Several people could be seen observing the process, none were in the fancy white suits from the video.
The lady came down and seemed like she had her bitch on, I got an instant sense that this was not to be someone helpful. I presented myself as a potential investor interested in seeing the facilities and wanted to ask some questions about the process. I was referred to someone in Quebec. I won't be following up on that.
I drove around the building. They have the largest indoor greenhouse I've ever seen. I now assume they could produce product all year, but do not know. Only a few vehicles parked out back. As I completed my exterior tour, a sign that I'd missed came into vision. "Medicago is a tobacco free campus". I'd stay away from this tobacco stock for quite a while but it was nice to see the place. Perhaps I should call before I go visit Novavax next week?
I went by the Tesla service center. Three cars wrapped, indicating they were ready for delivery. Several more being worked on. It looks to me like they need a larger service center to help expansion.
The lady came down and seemed like she had her bitch on, I got an instant sense that this was not to be someone helpful. I presented myself as a potential investor interested in seeing the facilities and wanted to ask some questions about the process. I was referred to someone in Quebec. I won't be following up on that.
I drove around the building. They have the largest indoor greenhouse I've ever seen. I now assume they could produce product all year, but do not know. Only a few vehicles parked out back. As I completed my exterior tour, a sign that I'd missed came into vision. "Medicago is a tobacco free campus". I'd stay away from this tobacco stock for quite a while but it was nice to see the place. Perhaps I should call before I go visit Novavax next week?
I went by the Tesla service center. Three cars wrapped, indicating they were ready for delivery. Several more being worked on. It looks to me like they need a larger service center to help expansion.
TSLA Short interest
I follow the shorts in TSLA. The major reporting seems to be every 2 to 4 weeks which makes it tough to see day to day action. My broker does not make data public, they are for retail. But I found a broker site that lists how many shares are available with regular updates. Prior to earnings I saw 300K shares available, this number has gone down as far as 45K I think. Post earnings it bounced around such that prior to close yesterday it was still below the 300K I first observed. After hours yesterday the stock moved higher a couple bucks, still offered that high this am, and the short figures seem to finally be getting better. I now see 400K available to short. This broker is THE big one.
I looked at other issues just to make sure and other stocks have millions of shares available. For those counting on a squeeze or thinking a squeeze might be getting started, I'd say we could still go a lot higher. Much of the action could as yet be attributed to trend followers and large institutions establishing a long term long position based upon business outlook and true profitability. I don't know these things to be true but it is what I am observing.
I looked at other issues just to make sure and other stocks have millions of shares available. For those counting on a squeeze or thinking a squeeze might be getting started, I'd say we could still go a lot higher. Much of the action could as yet be attributed to trend followers and large institutions establishing a long term long position based upon business outlook and true profitability. I don't know these things to be true but it is what I am observing.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Sunday, May 12, 2013
IPO research thru 4/2013
Nothing of interest. I am surprised. But I am picky.
Most of what I have reported on here for IPO research remains on my quote screen. I have owned most of them at one time or another, generally taking small gains. VSI surprised me with downward move, they seem to remain a well run company. I think CPTS could now be a double from when I first watched it, I just never held onto any confidence. DXCM and PODD remain solid, just don't seem to have enough of a target market for what I am looking for. A vaccine that everyone takes every year is much better gamble than a company that makes devices that only a portion of diabetics would use. Solazyme bears some watching though I have not kept up with them well due to price action. SCTY strikes me as high risk, especially before IPO lock up. Perhaps after June 11, with better institutional following I will consider.
CLNE strikes me as one to follow now. There is a lot bad to think about it but the chart screams long term support and buying, I just don't see quality when I scan who owns the thing. If price starts moving up and better owners step in, I'd consider buying. But I have only started to watch this one and need to study more.
I try to swing a big bat. I am studying game film of the pitchers and am waiting for my pitch. I've now got my first ever double and want a game winning grand slam.
Most of what I have reported on here for IPO research remains on my quote screen. I have owned most of them at one time or another, generally taking small gains. VSI surprised me with downward move, they seem to remain a well run company. I think CPTS could now be a double from when I first watched it, I just never held onto any confidence. DXCM and PODD remain solid, just don't seem to have enough of a target market for what I am looking for. A vaccine that everyone takes every year is much better gamble than a company that makes devices that only a portion of diabetics would use. Solazyme bears some watching though I have not kept up with them well due to price action. SCTY strikes me as high risk, especially before IPO lock up. Perhaps after June 11, with better institutional following I will consider.
CLNE strikes me as one to follow now. There is a lot bad to think about it but the chart screams long term support and buying, I just don't see quality when I scan who owns the thing. If price starts moving up and better owners step in, I'd consider buying. But I have only started to watch this one and need to study more.
I try to swing a big bat. I am studying game film of the pitchers and am waiting for my pitch. I've now got my first ever double and want a game winning grand slam.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Virus Like particle vaccine research.
This is a work in progress and I have found blogger to not allow things to go smoothly. I am not sure how polished I will get this but I need to start typing as I go.
Vaccine approval process article with links to follow at the end: http://www.path.org/publications/files/VAC_understanding_fs.pdf
Academic paper expounding on above: http://faculty.washington.edu/peterg/papers/HudgensGilbertSelfSMMR.pdf
Slidshare on approval process: http://www.slideshare.net/rwmalonemd/Clinical-Vaccine-Development-Introduction
Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus-like_particle
I am mainly interested in a company called Novavax, first came to light years ago when I got stung in bird flu hysteria. Like a dog to vomit I have watched this pile and have an increased interest. I have spent some time reading a lot of their site and publications, think I have written about them before. I am reading further on competitors. It seems like a lot of companies have similar technologies, I have not seen discussions on why one company might be better than another. What I do see is that Fidelity owns 15% of NVAX, though it is only a 303M market cap company which means they have invested only 45 M.
NVAX: Long history in business. Partnered with GE, Cadila in India, LG in South Korea. Barda-Path help with funding. Many things in pipeline. Uses fall army worm. I am not sure of the benefit of using an insect compared to a plant or even an egg. Market seems large for RSV (all newborns), and anything flue related (they estimate growing market from 3.6 B now to 4.7B in 10 years).
Medicago MDCGF in Canadian smaller capped company that works with VLP in tobacco plants. 4 weeks to testable product. Has a RTP NC office, I need to go visit. Seems smaller scale with fewer candidates. Very thinly traded OTC, like 15K shares a day. SP report here: http://solutions.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/WS/EntryServlet?pc=IVS&tracking=IVSMEDICAGO_INC&auth=userA&pagename=encrStockReportPDF&company=116138171134164074121236231068161220198195146032
Ligocyte has been purchased by Takeda for 60M, not traded, main candidate is for norovirus/gastroenteritis. Not a big market but others think if you get sick from norov you will get the vaccine.
Other companies:
Oxford Expression Technologies: UK based provider of training and supplies. private
VLP Biotech: private, service company with hints of future vaccines from 2010
Technovax-private VLP developer that has not started testing yet.
VLP vaccine note: I had naively thought this was brand new technology but it already has safe accepted products on the market. The two HPV vaccines marketed to young teens are from VLP.
I like NVAX for now, expect they could be a multibagger if they win first arrival advantage or get bought out. It can take many years for this and I am willing to wait. JAZZ and DNDN are examples of what can happen with smaller captive market hysteria, and VLP could be larger captive market. It is tough to arrive at target price. I recall that a company might be worth 4-10x yearly sales. So if they captured just 1B of potential vaccine market, market cap could be 4B for share price of $26.6, without any other vaccines being approved and without accounting for over exhuberance. RSV vaccine could add more as there are nearly 4M births per year in the U.S.
Vaccine approval process article with links to follow at the end: http://www.path.org/publications/files/VAC_understanding_fs.pdf
Academic paper expounding on above: http://faculty.washington.edu/peterg/papers/HudgensGilbertSelfSMMR.pdf
Slidshare on approval process: http://www.slideshare.net/rwmalonemd/Clinical-Vaccine-Development-Introduction
Wikipedia : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus-like_particle
I am mainly interested in a company called Novavax, first came to light years ago when I got stung in bird flu hysteria. Like a dog to vomit I have watched this pile and have an increased interest. I have spent some time reading a lot of their site and publications, think I have written about them before. I am reading further on competitors. It seems like a lot of companies have similar technologies, I have not seen discussions on why one company might be better than another. What I do see is that Fidelity owns 15% of NVAX, though it is only a 303M market cap company which means they have invested only 45 M.
NVAX: Long history in business. Partnered with GE, Cadila in India, LG in South Korea. Barda-Path help with funding. Many things in pipeline. Uses fall army worm. I am not sure of the benefit of using an insect compared to a plant or even an egg. Market seems large for RSV (all newborns), and anything flue related (they estimate growing market from 3.6 B now to 4.7B in 10 years).
Medicago MDCGF in Canadian smaller capped company that works with VLP in tobacco plants. 4 weeks to testable product. Has a RTP NC office, I need to go visit. Seems smaller scale with fewer candidates. Very thinly traded OTC, like 15K shares a day. SP report here: http://solutions.standardandpoors.com/NASApp/WS/EntryServlet?pc=IVS&tracking=IVSMEDICAGO_INC&auth=userA&pagename=encrStockReportPDF&company=116138171134164074121236231068161220198195146032
Ligocyte has been purchased by Takeda for 60M, not traded, main candidate is for norovirus/gastroenteritis. Not a big market but others think if you get sick from norov you will get the vaccine.
Other companies:
Oxford Expression Technologies: UK based provider of training and supplies. private
VLP Biotech: private, service company with hints of future vaccines from 2010
Technovax-private VLP developer that has not started testing yet.
VLP vaccine note: I had naively thought this was brand new technology but it already has safe accepted products on the market. The two HPV vaccines marketed to young teens are from VLP.
I like NVAX for now, expect they could be a multibagger if they win first arrival advantage or get bought out. It can take many years for this and I am willing to wait. JAZZ and DNDN are examples of what can happen with smaller captive market hysteria, and VLP could be larger captive market. It is tough to arrive at target price. I recall that a company might be worth 4-10x yearly sales. So if they captured just 1B of potential vaccine market, market cap could be 4B for share price of $26.6, without any other vaccines being approved and without accounting for over exhuberance. RSV vaccine could add more as there are nearly 4M births per year in the U.S.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
NO SHARES LEFT TO SHORT
I am not worried about the action, I see massive pain ahead. Even if not, I am holding for years, not for this action.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Some follow up
I drove around the service center again. Seemed to still be four cars out back. A hired crew was cleaning an S, saw an S and a Roadster in the shop.
Also saw this article at a book store: http://www.waltermagazine.com/its-so-easy-being-green-when-your-ride-looks-like-this/
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Monday, April 22, 2013
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Raleigh NC service center
Service center is open. Large garage door, room for two cars inside. One car was in for some kind of service, the happy owner was there advocating buying a car instead of holding stock. One lift seemed the type with swingarms to go under car, another seemed like a heavy duty platform, I think it was 4 post. Under this lift was a battery pack in a crate. A customers new car came in with a battery that Tesla HQ could tell was not working well so they changed it out before the customer even took delivery, never new of the issue.
There were 4 cars out back to be delivered. Each car gets detailed, takes about two hours. Perhaps the last chance for some quality checks. There were charging cords inside, some charging hardware (like for installing a 2nd charger on the car), lots of new stuff in boxes, typical shop equipment. The serviceman Javier was very nice spending time with me. He took me out and let me sit in one of the cars, no test drive as they all belonged to others. I FIT IN THE CAR and I am tall and fat!
There was another employee helping a customer. They are hiring a service manager. Javier said they already have more work than they can handle. He thinks there are 30 cars in the area and 100 in the state. Click images for larger.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Puzzled
Recent market strength puzzles me. I expected a slow spring and summer with bullishness returning in the fall or next year. Clearly I am lousy at market prediction, need to adhere to a cohesive intelligent strategy. I have not done this well the past couple months though it has not been destructive. The number of mutual funds holding ecar stock has grown to 242. It has gone north of 40 for the first time on great strength. I ADDED higher than where we are now 41.56. I subscribed to IBD again but dislike the salesmanship. They have a new 2013 book out from their meetup representative. Basically it rehashes everything ever said, profiles those that have used the "system". Lots of small players seem to hold for short periods, scare off easy, perhaps churn accounts. They do not talk about overall returns. The book seems to be a sales tool for many of the things that IBD sells, generally monthly charges for products that likely wont help me do better.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
This market puzzles me
I have beliefs about the market direction that might be clouding my judgement. I really think the market should not do well over the coming months, the bulk of my money has been"safe" out of the market for a couple months, little disheartening to see the rally. With the Nasdaq not fully participating it is tough to tell that I am right early or just wrong. I judge risk to not be worth the gain and really want a market scare or pullback to get long again. Things I believe:
1. Presidential election cycles favor proper functioning of govt for a couple years. They might do things unpopular and needed now, might be bad for market.
2. 2% more in taxes to govt bad for the spending numbers.
3. More taxes possible.
4. Credit seems difficult and slow despite the low rates.
5. I think banks that own foreclosures are up to something, holding onto inventory, not putting it on the market, or even pulling it off the market. I had a deal go south on a place I bid asking price that is off the market now.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
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