The big concern I have with MBLY is the awareness that it has been a hot issue for a number of months, lots of new money attracted to it, all the chart monkeys and trend followers. So I enter this research stage with some reticence. I wonder if the attraction to this new issue has been ignorant hope.
Clearly the product is a game changer for the driving world. Tesla is using them as are every other major company. They win 80% of the jobs they bid on, appear to have first mover advantage. The founders are still with the company and own a good bit of stock. They have great growth prospects especially if they can work out the algorithms for future driver less technology. They stand to make money off of every car built each year with products in limited models at present.
Real world example: I tested a Honda Accord Hybrid with all the bells and whistles. Lane departure warnings were nice on major roads. Front camera/radar device did not work, it dropped off the car. I viewed that malfunction as a Honda assembly or salesman issue. Tesla video showing new features also very interesting. The safety features in modern cars are exactly what will save distracted drivers such as myself.
I think BASM checks out.
My concerns: The S-1 mentions immediate dilution of >$23 from the $25 IPO price. GS major owner with conflict of interest. IPO purpose number one is "liquidity for existing shareholders". I get a sense they were doing just fine turning the corner of profitability and wanted to provide a cash out point for early investors. They did not access the capital markets to grow the business.
The business is growing. This is likely a good company to invest and own for the future. I will wait for post IPO phase excitement to settle down and then work on some growth projections if I can wrap my mind around them.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Monday, November 10, 2014
Research report ZOES
Zoes kitchen is a young fast growing restaurant concept. They prepare fresh food only and do not fry or nuke anything. They indicated many strengths in their S-1. 70% shoppers are women whose household incomes exceed 100K. 60% lunch, 17% catering. I would not be good to evaluate real estate team, but site selection is key, they have experienced people in house and have standards for real estate brokers to submit properties for consideration. 750K to open a restauarant, 3yr CAGR 30%. 122 locations now, they predict they can have in excess of 1600 in the future, opening about 30 new spots this year. If they grown at this rate 1600 is a long time away, I would like to see them over time increase the number of stores opened per year. They regularly train new managers at multiple locations. Experienced management team has grown them from 20 stores.
BASM check
I plan on following this company. I plan on buying some shares and holding for as long as they execute. Difficult to come up with a target price, but based upon current price and future number of stores, I expect 13 x current price is possible in the future ($455).
Ownership data that exists suggests not so many funds are in at present though I do see Lord Abbott, an early owner in Tesla. Fido seems to be buying.
Market cap 637million on 16 weeks sales of 46 million.
Attached is map of local location along two major roads. It is an odd location in that it is difficult to see from either of the roads. The one time I've been there it was crowded, I walked by this week and it was crowded. I hope the real estate teams choose locations with better visibility in the future.
BASM check
I plan on following this company. I plan on buying some shares and holding for as long as they execute. Difficult to come up with a target price, but based upon current price and future number of stores, I expect 13 x current price is possible in the future ($455).
Ownership data that exists suggests not so many funds are in at present though I do see Lord Abbott, an early owner in Tesla. Fido seems to be buying.
Market cap 637million on 16 weeks sales of 46 million.
Attached is map of local location along two major roads. It is an odd location in that it is difficult to see from either of the roads. The one time I've been there it was crowded, I walked by this week and it was crowded. I hope the real estate teams choose locations with better visibility in the future.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
IPO research
This is the first round, not very detailed. More later as I read from company data. Seven months of IPOs reviewed, glancing at company profile via finance sites. I screen according to things I have talked about here before: chance for explosive growth in new market, strong leadership, proper use of my money to develop business, and sleepy factor (can I sleep through losses). Two companies peak my interest, one is large enough to consider now, the other is very small. Two others peak my interest as game changers, not sure I can wrap my head around the entire business, will have to see. They happen to be two that have made waves prior to my research.
1. ZOES I've enjoyed the food. 15 states, like 125 stores. There has got to be room for more. If I can read company data and understand a master plan it is a buy.
2. MCUR Risky small Israeli would product company in stage 3 trials. Unmet need for relatively small market, if the stuff works it could do well.
3/4. MBLY and GPRO
1. ZOES I've enjoyed the food. 15 states, like 125 stores. There has got to be room for more. If I can read company data and understand a master plan it is a buy.
2. MCUR Risky small Israeli would product company in stage 3 trials. Unmet need for relatively small market, if the stuff works it could do well.
3/4. MBLY and GPRO
Friday, November 7, 2014
Monday, October 27, 2014
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
The best of this Blog
So basically this blog has been a collection of crap as I have gone thru it. At times I have fancied myself as a writer providing original content for the masses yet I do not organize things well, dont have web skills, and frankly don't care much about others that want to be spoon fed. Somehow though this blog started getting a lot more internet traffic so I thought to do a little spoon feeding. Going back thru late 2010 I find the following to provide the best value, originality, ideas, truisms, or insight into what I do in the markets.
11/17/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/11/good-reads.html
10/16/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/10/trading-update-and-randome-thoughts.html
10/26/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/10/psychology-note.html
12/29/10 AWESOME http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/12/volume-weighted-average-price-vwap.html
1/3/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/01/2010-year-in-review-and-reflections.html
2/7/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/02/risk-management.html
8/5/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/08/big-money.html Best investment book ever
5/9/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/05/how-i-think-of-things.html
9/6/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/09/i-made-some-changes.html I bet you don't know Jack!
11/6/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/11/this-market-is-nuts.html
5/21/13 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/traffic-over-profits.html
6/23/13 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/06/electric-cars-and-book.html Stiill the best book
11/17/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/11/good-reads.html
10/16/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/10/trading-update-and-randome-thoughts.html
10/26/10 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/10/psychology-note.html
12/29/10 AWESOME http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2010/12/volume-weighted-average-price-vwap.html
1/3/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/01/2010-year-in-review-and-reflections.html
2/7/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/02/risk-management.html
8/5/11 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2011/08/big-money.html Best investment book ever
5/9/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/05/how-i-think-of-things.html
9/6/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/09/i-made-some-changes.html I bet you don't know Jack!
11/6/12 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2012/11/this-market-is-nuts.html
5/21/13 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/05/traffic-over-profits.html
6/23/13 http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/06/electric-cars-and-book.html Stiill the best book
Thursday, June 12, 2014
June 12, 2014 Novavax Shareholders meeting
For reactions from last years meeting see here: http://4nursebee.blogspot.com/2013/06/novavax-shareholder-meeting.html
Comments from someone else that published them online:
Take aways from the shareholders' meeting
Hi folks. These are from my notes taken during the shareholders' meeting. Unfortunately, I arrive a little late and missed the first 40 minutes, but here are my basic observations:
1) Erck noted the desire to stay independent and promote steady development.
2) There was some discussion of hiring in some people to manage distribution issues in the future. Erck noted that the CDC and ASIC often support some contracting facilitation (I think this is what this amounted to) to promote distribution in the future. No need for a large in-house salesforce (at least not yet).
3) MERS was discussed, the publication regarding NVAX data published (as is known) and simply noted the company's ability to produce, quickly, a viable vaccine candidate.
4) 10 milestone development projects were displayed involving various vaccine indications and there timetables for phase study results. Erck noted that the strategy was to seek earlier approvals via acceleration of development and phase study results.
5) They plan on hiring a Director of Investor Relations and adding 'manufacturing associates' who can management, direct, research manufacturing capabilities. Quality control and Quality assurance specialists may also be sought.
6) The maintain a mix of Intellectual property including patents and trade-secrets. Erck also noted the high barriers to entry in this field.
7) Mention of either on-going or prospective trials in India --- data to be reported in the near future. Some possibility of a MERS manufacturing capability in India could also be envisioned.
Wish I had gotten there earlier --- evidently some discussion of the dilution occurred. Was surprised that only 24 people were in the room. The meeting was then followed by a directors' meeting. Wish I was a fly on the wall at that point.
Erck struck me as very knowledgeable, capable and reasonable person with a reasonable view to the future. Less
Now for my thoughts
Wow what a change from last year. I am not sure the time of day that I had driven around the two campuses last year but this year I saw a lot more cars around 0900 compared to what I saw last year. At the campus where the meeting was held I saw stereotypical lab looking folks coming to work. During the meeting they were making a lot of noise upstairs working on building out additional lab space. Outside the meeting there was a room with Dr Glenn seeming to have some kind of a meeting.
ACIP drives recommendations for vaccinations. They are putting in the networking such that ACIP will suggest RSV vaccine should it be approved. This would eliminate a lot of salesforce development concerns, otherwise they could find some willing partners established in the business. It sounds like they are putting in the PR related staff needed to move forward.
Cash runway confident through 2016 with additional funded trials. 10% dilution at most needed for further trials.
Current employees are working at what needs to be done to grow Novavax. They have reached "critical mass". More people being hired and interviewed.
RSV stage 3 trials maybe 2015. Businessman and lawyer holding CEO back from pushing too much too soon. Lawyer looked anxious.
Staying it alone allows them to move faster.
India holds additional GMP manufacturing should US not be able to handle anything in future. Rabies and two other stage one trials underway. Indian FDA tougher than US.
BARDA approached Erck to talk about MERS. They "cloned" the MERS virus to work on it in the lab.
Journal of Vaccines mentioned. I need to read it.
They have a "critical mass" of staff.
In my opinion, having Ernst and Young adds legitimacy.
They have 2 (maybe 3) GMP labs.
Genocea partnership for HSV using Matrix M from Iscanova. Some revenue flow possible.
Growth comps mentioned from previous companies others worked for in the past were 15B market cap and 22B market cap. Someone asked to justify additional stock purchases. Erck rightly said determine future value, subtract for years to get there along along with theta to arrive at current pricing. So my simple math says 15 x current price minimum is there thought, so 15 x $4 = $60 future share price. Subtract 20 % for four years to get there for my back of cuff valuation is $24.57 now. As each trial gets done, the confidence in these numbers grows.
Novavax is set in the heart of Biotech pharmaceuticals on the east coast. They are a real company, have leadership doing what needs to be done to get RSV and other vaccines to market.
Comments from someone else that published them online:
Take aways from the shareholders' meeting
Hi folks. These are from my notes taken during the shareholders' meeting. Unfortunately, I arrive a little late and missed the first 40 minutes, but here are my basic observations:
1) Erck noted the desire to stay independent and promote steady development.
2) There was some discussion of hiring in some people to manage distribution issues in the future. Erck noted that the CDC and ASIC often support some contracting facilitation (I think this is what this amounted to) to promote distribution in the future. No need for a large in-house salesforce (at least not yet).
3) MERS was discussed, the publication regarding NVAX data published (as is known) and simply noted the company's ability to produce, quickly, a viable vaccine candidate.
4) 10 milestone development projects were displayed involving various vaccine indications and there timetables for phase study results. Erck noted that the strategy was to seek earlier approvals via acceleration of development and phase study results.
5) They plan on hiring a Director of Investor Relations and adding 'manufacturing associates' who can management, direct, research manufacturing capabilities. Quality control and Quality assurance specialists may also be sought.
6) The maintain a mix of Intellectual property including patents and trade-secrets. Erck also noted the high barriers to entry in this field.
7) Mention of either on-going or prospective trials in India --- data to be reported in the near future. Some possibility of a MERS manufacturing capability in India could also be envisioned.
Wish I had gotten there earlier --- evidently some discussion of the dilution occurred. Was surprised that only 24 people were in the room. The meeting was then followed by a directors' meeting. Wish I was a fly on the wall at that point.
Erck struck me as very knowledgeable, capable and reasonable person with a reasonable view to the future. Less
Now for my thoughts
Wow what a change from last year. I am not sure the time of day that I had driven around the two campuses last year but this year I saw a lot more cars around 0900 compared to what I saw last year. At the campus where the meeting was held I saw stereotypical lab looking folks coming to work. During the meeting they were making a lot of noise upstairs working on building out additional lab space. Outside the meeting there was a room with Dr Glenn seeming to have some kind of a meeting.
ACIP drives recommendations for vaccinations. They are putting in the networking such that ACIP will suggest RSV vaccine should it be approved. This would eliminate a lot of salesforce development concerns, otherwise they could find some willing partners established in the business. It sounds like they are putting in the PR related staff needed to move forward.
Cash runway confident through 2016 with additional funded trials. 10% dilution at most needed for further trials.
Current employees are working at what needs to be done to grow Novavax. They have reached "critical mass". More people being hired and interviewed.
RSV stage 3 trials maybe 2015. Businessman and lawyer holding CEO back from pushing too much too soon. Lawyer looked anxious.
Staying it alone allows them to move faster.
India holds additional GMP manufacturing should US not be able to handle anything in future. Rabies and two other stage one trials underway. Indian FDA tougher than US.
BARDA approached Erck to talk about MERS. They "cloned" the MERS virus to work on it in the lab.
Journal of Vaccines mentioned. I need to read it.
They have a "critical mass" of staff.
In my opinion, having Ernst and Young adds legitimacy.
They have 2 (maybe 3) GMP labs.
Genocea partnership for HSV using Matrix M from Iscanova. Some revenue flow possible.
Growth comps mentioned from previous companies others worked for in the past were 15B market cap and 22B market cap. Someone asked to justify additional stock purchases. Erck rightly said determine future value, subtract for years to get there along along with theta to arrive at current pricing. So my simple math says 15 x current price minimum is there thought, so 15 x $4 = $60 future share price. Subtract 20 % for four years to get there for my back of cuff valuation is $24.57 now. As each trial gets done, the confidence in these numbers grows.
Novavax is set in the heart of Biotech pharmaceuticals on the east coast. They are a real company, have leadership doing what needs to be done to get RSV and other vaccines to market.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
