Sunday, July 26, 2009

End of weekend reflection

Earnings in am on my major stock holding!!!

This is a tough business to be in. I need to do much more on a daily basis. I need to sharpen my mission statement. I am starting to scan for more stocks in industries that could grow well, many have had giant moves with some tells weeks before the move. Some of these are off the radar issues, never make a net mention or IBD until long after the move has begun. I want to follow these better.

I need a bigger monitor for longer quote screens. Gotta bank some buck to get it. I think screen real estate would be better reward than a chair.

Post 2 Celebrate

I did some things very well this week. I remember the pasta rally in AIPC, seemed to be a great winner in a new bull market but I sat on the sidelines and made no money off of it. The rally seemed to be helped by addition of the company to some index, making lots of volume flow into the stock. I was befuddled at the time. Recently RHT was announced as replacing some issue in the SP 500, gapped open big and has held. I figured itwould go higher, bought a call on 7/20, sold on 7/24 near the high of the day, made a dollar for each five at risk. It might go more but I've lost a lot of money on calls when I did not take the quick profit.

The other trade I executed well was one that just kind of fell in my lap. Maybe not. I've been following GMCR as potential leader for quite a while, have traded in it once pre split, price action scared me out. Alarms went off again on 7/20 as it went higher. I'd just sold REIT HTS thinking that market strength was turning more in favor of strong stocks. I bought into GMCR on what I view as day of breakout and am sitting on a profit now in one account.

Sunday post 1

I was going to go outside to mow but sat down to review charts. I have a notebook I keep some records in, took a look at overall performance YTD of 10.2%, bulk of gains in retirement accts, bulk of losses in active trading accounts. If this keeps up I might have to start being a very passive investor in the overall style of my 401Ks. I'd be so much further ahead if I'd done that from the beginning. If I decide to go that route it will be a tough pill to swallow.

I have the sheet of paper I kept records on from January 5th, 2009. I was following the range of the Dow and SP and it looks like I was actively following NFLX(31.94-42.20 now), FRPT Feb $5 calls ( made money from there and then blew up) and VISN (7.3 then, 6.7 now-I am still following this range bound great fundy stock). At the bottom of the paper are stocks I made a note to start following. Prices are the high of the day for 1/5 and closing price of issue this past Friday

SXCI 19.27 29.61
MDRX 10.2 16.44
SOHU 50.39-63.63
BIDU 139-358
APWR 5.49 10.78

Clearly I can pick some winners to follow. I've traded in NFLX, VISN, and APWR since then, done with APWR. Today I am looking more in depth with my lack of trading these other issues, and reminding myself that pending some horrible breakdown in the stock, perhaps holding them longer without the bouncing in and out is the way to go.

Looking at charts, BIDU is the only one that seems to have not clearly given a sell signal during these moves.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Thursday, July 16, 2009


1. I've got 2 day old pigeons! Some of my young birds have not returned from a training flight, not sure what the issue was, thought I'd treated them well. Perhaps it is time to spend some coin and get some of the classic texts.

2. The market continues to amaze many. For the most part I have stayed long the same issues for quite a while. I got too extended with losing option positions in SNDA and STAR. STAR then broke out of nice consolidation area, SNDA might do the same. I suspect I bought as they went to new high, then had to sit thru pain. Option expiry ahead had me get lighter. Correction, I was not in SNDA, rather in SYNA which is broke big for now, still on the watch list...

3. After such a big Wednesday, it is a lot easier to say that I am still bullish. I was sleeping well with what I had. I bought a stock on new high b/o on volume and sat on it thru 20% loss, now coming back. But it is a newer issue that is more volatile. My buy on it was good, my analysis was good, it just wasnt continuing higher. I feel my buys and sells have been much less emotional, much more so rules and analysis based. It feels good, if it continues I'll get somebig winners.

4. Market seemed to pop nicely when breadth indicators were pretty bad, must have been an oversold thing in a bull market!