Sunday, June 28, 2009

She's got eggs!

Actually this is the male in the pic. Leg band on that is seen is for racing. This is a borrowed mated pair from a friend so I can raise some white youngsters. I think 18 days to hatch, should be due about July 15th. Click image for larger.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Book Review

I've just finished reading Greg Morris' Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. A great read, I plan on adding some of this to my daily routine. Some of the stuff is easier to see relationships with than others, my guess is I'll skip the one in a blue moon indicators and stick with broad trend stuff that does not swing around much. Assessment of market breadth notably important.

The McClellan family of indicators gets a lot of mention there and I have seen them elsewhere. I've not seen all of these as an option on sites I've used before so I went to their site:
It looks like too much information to me. In particular I note them calling for bullish moves in June 08 and Oct 08 that clearly did not materialize.

I wise man once wrote to me that "Only price pays".

Friday, June 26, 2009

It's about the money.

I am perusing the recent posts in some online forums and find myself wanting to unleash a fly rant...

I see comments like "my gut", "I feel", "I think". Folks have ideas about the market that I disagree with based upon recent market action and TA 101.

At the top of the bull market, disbelievers like myself lost serious chump change, continuing to ignore market action based upon beliefs and listening to too many glowing whirly boxes.

I have not participated in the bulk of the move off the lows, am kicking myself and trying to learn what happened, why I missed it, how I can note it next time. It don't matter what I believe/think/feel, what happened is BOOM! If I'd have caught some greater portion of that move with some amazing trading vehicles out there my life would be forever changed in financial term.

I like having all the mkt noise off.

Early am thoughts

Believing we are heading for better times, I view having long term money in the market as a good thing. I've tried to be better disciplined about jumping back in after bad days, this has been beneficial. My 401K buys or sells at closing prices so buying on dips helps. The trick YEARS down the road is to recognize things near the top and sell out after big gains.

From a technical analysis standpoint when viewing the SP500 chart, we had a low of 878.94 on 5/15. Our most recent low did not hit that. This can be viewed as a higher low. Our recent high of 956.23 is higher than previous high of 930.17. From what I've read this is bullish or how an uptrend works. Going down below 878 breaks this.

The fed recently began the process of closing 2 manners in which they could help lend money to big folks. I like this.

I am reading a book on market indicators and hope to add a few of these to my analysis of the markets.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

todays answer

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

What are the right questions?

Okay, a post of odd thoughts I'm having.

Observing others at work, in trading rooms and forums, I often suspect that people ask the wrong questions in life and trading. By this I mean they are looking too small, too little, not dreaming enough. Too many just want to get by, find an easy way, be spoon fed. While I know that my dreams and hopes are large, I wonder if seeing these characteristics in others is really just a reflection of myself.

I want to focus on the big things with big questions. What questions do I need to be asking for success in life and trading? I believe that asking the right questions leads us closer to the answer.

Monday, June 15, 2009

I am still bullish...

I did not like the looks of what I owned late last week. TNDM broke hard on large volume. I do not know why. Two bigshots in the company spoke at some fancy thing (, at the end you here they are going to another room to continue the discussion. I figure something was talked about there that scared analysts away. I was up in this with options and stocks by near 20% at one point, ended up losing it and then some. Stock loss was a perfect 8%. I was working big break day, might have sold if I was at home watching that volume come in. I am not sure if I should have taken some profit earlieror if my sit on it for big win would be better. I sold last Friday. BROKEN for now.

GMCR-hot stock. I only had options, instead of over $3 each I got like 20 cents, likely only paid for the trade. TNDM and LFT action had me scared, also got out Friday. This might still be okay to watch.

APWR-the one true winner, got maybe 20% on it in my wifes Roth, nice to have her ahead of my Roth for a change. This account now profitable YTD. Leaders action and my fear had me sell despite being a winner, earnings out 6/16, might be best to sit out earnings. I am continuing to follow and will by this one again if price and volume suggest it to me.

I'm glad I sold these and did not get ill today. I do not think this is a big break in market, leaving everything else where it is, kinda sticking with rules based trading.

My new young birds took first flight yesterday!

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Adjustment, Emotional Check

I was holding off on removing remainder 1/3 of a 401K back into the market until the 50 day index averages were trading above the 200 day (see here please or click on post title to go: but took advantage of yesterdays pull back to put that money back in. I'd had the account split in 5, got rid of two underperformers and added two that have been doing well. This acct is 40% international, 20% realestate, 40% US. Of note: The naz and semis both have 50 day average above 200 day, dah bull is good!

I am grateful I've had things to do the past couple of days and have not spent the entire day in front of computer. My emotions have been running high. I am not sure what it means. But in the same manner that I was calm when some issues were down and slept well, I want the same to be true when stocks are doing well. Even when I was up >80% in late 2007 I was still in and out of the market a lot. If I'd just held some of the leaders I'd have done even better. While I love watching the bells and whistles all day long, I think I'd be better off fully engaged in life and watch things like Darvas.

Then again, I'd have to have the monitor on with full volume so my spouse could grab me when an alert popped!

Tuesday, June 2, 2009


That was my greatest ever day to not trade. I would like to learn such success! My positions will stay as they are.

Account updates:
401K 1: 11.8% YTD (all in)
401k 2: 7% (2/3 in)
annuity: 26% YTD
cash: Under water but improved
Roth1: even
Roth2: 20%YTD
SP500: 4.3%

Goals at start of year were to double the last three accounts by year end.

Monday, June 1, 2009

General thoughts

1. This abortion doctor death is screwy. If these folks would put there energy into productive means they could achieve more. I remember the poster in elementary education room "I might not agree in what you believe, but I will fight to the death for your right to express it".

2. General Motors shows their is no safe stock, no blue chip buy and hold. Evolve or else.

3. I've taken to looking at IBD newspaper graphs a little different. On page B1 of the Monday June 1, 2009 I am impressed with stocks number 4 and number 2 as evidenced by quick scans of the volume patterns. They were nothing and now are huge. We will see how this turns out, I own one of them and am watching the other.

4. Overseas indices are off the hook this am! MOMO is higher! Nobody is selling any longer. For the week ahead I am only watching earnings on SNDA 6/3. My yahoo economic calendar is much longer than normal, we shall see.

5. Click on post title (I think) for interesting link to trader site. Periodic updates and neat rules for uptrend observation. I've been following the new high new low list for a while in IBD and it has been a while since lows were greater than highs.

6. EBAY is tough to use and they continue to make it tougher, also I've heard of unhappy bulk sellers. I think it could go the way of AOL and be nearly useless. AOL always tried to rip me off at cancellation time, such crooked practices can't be sustainable.

Good luck!