Sunday, December 27, 2009

New Feature

I've added a new area to the right to show what I have my work 401K money in. I will try and update this if and when I make any changes. I got my hands spanked for changing these investments too frequently so I can only make changes once per quarter, that is why I reviewed things today and got out of one fund. It is interesting to see that the real estate fund has far exceeded the others this quarter. Growth has also favored value, which makes sense to me in a better market environment.

I am already excited for end of year evaluation and goal setting. With a quick look back I have failed many of the goals I set for 2009. More later...

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Book review

I ran into the video I will try and attach on a site called misstrade. They have some interesting interviews, not always with traders. I read this guys book Confessions of an Economic Hitman after picking it up for a few bucks. It was an interesting read though I am not sure how well his idea that a few powerful families control everything will stand the test of time.

John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hitman and out soon Hoodwinked (11-10-09) and MissTrade, Matt Davio talk Hitmen from miss trade on Vimeo.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Happy wedding

Yahoo had list of most popular youtube videos, this was one of them.

CNO

I might live to regret this but I sold out of a recent purchase in CNO for a very small profit(in 4.77, out 4.91). The stock offering news has me worried in a fundamental sense, I'd rather not lose. The chart still looks good but it is not for me any longer. I think this one will stay back burner for quite a while.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Boring market

This market has me considering some bad moves, need to just sit on my hands and see which way things go. I have not worked much at this the past 2 weeks, allowing distraction to occupy me, this should change after another week or so. I remain in some oversized trades in losing position. Even though at a loss they have not clearly broken down. I will give these some time, wish I had stuck with ETFs in smaller size. Failure of these stocks will have me revert to this again.

I am increasingly aware that guys like Tim Sykes that trade very differently than other market participants have an edge in the trading world.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Short side

All three of my short ideas have come down nice! So has what I own, but not the 2.4 - 6% I see today.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

This is nuts

Scans

It's been a while since I actually looked at charts to see the state of things. I see some nice tradeable issues long and short. The following are all in a stock list of mine that all show great fundamental numbers, stocks I will watch and consider long positions in for great gains if they set up right for me. I recall the last time I did this I posted my ideas in a free chatroom I frequent (click title to go there). One of the ideas I felt strongest about at that time was PLX was a short though risky. It has since come down about 40%, that is mad money! The main thing I saw at the time was how extended it was above the 200 day average and even the 50 day average. At times these things are a lot like rubber bands that get stretched too far. No matter how much enthusiasm or energy there is to push things along, eventually there has to be a return to neutral-I think some folks call this a mean reversion.

So my big picks shorty wise, similar to the above are: CAAS and TSTC. MELI perhaps in a bit.

Longs to watch for:
CGA BPI watch the group TNDM logical but risky LIFE watch for emrbryo/stemcell interest to perk this EJ on a 50 day recovery play CPTS-great #s, maybe bottom of cup AMSC for flat base emergence XOMA puzzles but interests me CYOU has nice volume dryup

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

November Performance-figures never lie

I am really not sure if anyone chooses to read this stuff and sense that this blog is evolving more to my trading journal to look back and reflect a little better. I like the idea of going back and reviewing trades, I'd started journal efforts a few times before but they were never very organized. It is also an honest show, with actual figures. If I ever achieve wild success it will be detailed here.

401k/annuity accounts: At or near all time highs, helped by regular contributions and sitting on my hands. Top balances are in Emerging markets and real estate, worst balance in financials. Good job.

Trading: Four accounts, mixed performance. Four round trips, half profitable. Worthless option expired, holding worthless aaple option, long NFLX in all accounts, only in one is it at a profit. Account changes: -6.9, +5.9, +.5, -2.4%. Overall +.4%.

Discussion: Profitable trades were in CNO twice, once for a loss. Overall I am happy with those, did not bother looking at the dates. GMCR took a small loss ignoring the bullishness in the news and marketing. I believe in the stock but not working out well, still on radar. NFLX is a tougher judgement call, perhaps I am in it too much to be objective. I regret being so large into the position, I am all in. This is counter to position sizing limits designed to help me. The recent weakness in this stock looks to me like it keeps trying to shakeout folks with news on Dubai and downgrades by other firms. One firm a few weeks ago raised target price to 72 or such. I was really looking for it to go to $65 easy (height of recent flagpole move). The past three days with moves down but closes near the high strike me as bullish. If and when I get out of NFLX I need to be more careful with my greed, tone down exposure to any one issue.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Book Review

I've recently finished Barbara Ehrenreich's Bright Sided How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking and Undermined America. An interesting book, full of humor and insight into the buildup of the positive thinking industry. It shows some of the poppycock being brought forward in the workplace, born many years ago out of mysticism. From there it jumps to positive thinking being the downfall of the economy of late. It also seriously rips into many modern day religious leaders. I was left more of a cynic. The main fault of the book, and with the positive thinkers is failing to recognize that faith without works is dead. Wait for the library version, worth a read.

For traders, a worthy read to recognize that the road to hell might be paved with your own good intentions.

For myself, the things I think about I tend to work towards. I am working on my three million!

As sweet as honey


I was coming home from my parents Saturday and passed by a couple of guys doing something interesting behind a hedgerow. We turned around and met a very interesting man in the midst of grinding sugar cane that he grew. His press is a Goldens from 1909, converted to run on an engine instead of the four legged power source it originally had. He ground a few stalks in front of us, then gave a simple tour of how the stalks were harvested. He then helped us cut a piece to eat, it was delicious and juicy, nothing like the dried up stuff I see irregularly at the grocers. He gave us a very heavy 3-4 foot section of Jamaican Blue Ribbon so we could enjoy it at home, instead of that we planted it. Perhaps in the future we will make some of our own molasses.

I went back and saw him again today, he estimated 15 gallon of juice harvest and he was boiling it down to use in BBQ sauce and pancake syrup. He hopes to grow several acres of the stuff in the future.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Dubai

There is no way of telling what world events will change the dynamics of the stock market. 9/11 shocked the world but markets recovered. Bank of Dubai problems will pass also. This is a buying opportunity!

Here is the thing with Dubai: After catching overseas market action and news at work, I come home and tell my wife about the bloodletting going on. It came as no surprise to her. She said she has been reading about problems in Dubai for quite a while. So if someone that does not follow the market knew about issues, the big money likely knew also.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Been busy

I sense I have missed some oppourtunities by not strictly adhering to a scanning routine and by not adhering to some criteria for buying into leading issues. Many of the ETFs I have recently owned have bounced back nicely, I expect they will continue to do well. There has just been a lot going on around here and I am distracted. Easier to miss opportunities than to miss money!

It is also difficult to solely be a systematic trader. A systematic trader has discipline to trade using fairly firm rules for entry and exit, I did okay with it. A discretionary trader makes judgements on what to trade. I expect I will end up blending these two in some fashion. What I fear is constantly changing what I do. Going with whims and emotions is a poor way to go about this.

I have an internal debate going on with regards to stocks vs ETFs. I have had my arse handed to me time after time with stocks in this market but they can offer the best chance of good exponential growth. They also suffer big drops when I buy them (perhaps at the wrong time?). ETFs cut back on this some but suffer just as much as the overall markets.

So I am dipping my toes back into stocks, trying to be a little smarter about buying them. Most of what I have owned has come back above my buy prices: GMCR NFLX AAPL CNO BIDU. I've have been a weak holder. Smarter buying for me is now not chasing price up, if my IBD emotional training has me wanting to buy, maybe now I just put it on my watch list and buy when "they" sell in a panic. If I'd have kept BIDU from when I had it I'd have a 20% gain right now. One of things I will do is concentrate on the stocks that have the best potential for monster runs.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Two simple thoughts

1. I took a night out last night, went to a nice bookstore, perused investing section hoping for a Nison or Bollinger book. I did come across a book on 401Ks, and the problems with them and the deceptions heaped upon long term investors in these vehicles. I did not buy it, now wish I had. I suspect I could better manage my 401K by putting new contributions in money market, then choosing specific buy days on overall market pullbacks. Doing this might yield a few extra percent on the money.

2. Reading the Miller blog and reflecting on trading public expectations and emotions have me wanting a new book to be written. A lot of the moves in the market are based upon emotional reactions of those involved, I'd like to have an increased awareness of those in the market. An awareness of this is what could set apart traders from the crowd.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Today

I've got a headache from staring at screen all day, this happens a lot. It would be nice to know that someone made some money off that EWZ, but I do not want to get into that habit, cause then I'd have to know when they lost. But, I nailed it there.

I've only made it through two months of the blog, good stuff.

Don Miller Trading Journal

I am really not following the market much today. I am feeling some gratitude for the above (click blog title) blogger. Continuing to recognize his knowledge, I am rereading his entire blog from the start and creating a clipboard document of truisms and pointers that I'd hope to preserve for later use should his blog go away.

Pullback in EWZ now at 75.8 seems buyable.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Recent trades

Recent lack of good discipline on my end. I've been long two issues I've watched for a while. One whole account is in NFLX, pattern looks nice, up out of flag like consolidation. Bought this last week. I also bought CNO, then broke some rules and added down low. Additionally I bought this all in with 3 accounts. So much for turtle trend trading with risk and size management. I sold CNO today, would have held if it had busted up higher, but todays gains on busted rules were enough for me. My average entry was 5.161, got out 5.32-5.33. With the number of shares I was holding, market shaking that is expected Tuesday could hurt.

Bollinger band comments in last post hinted that perhaps we were near the bottom of the bands with good low risk entry. The next trading day SPY closed 104.32, now above 109! Note to self! With the modest volatility we've had of late, it looks like exiting near high of bands and buying at bottom would have made nice money.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Distribution

High volume distribution noted in leaders, everyone in the market knows it. Some indices made lower lows, bull run in trouble. Time will allow new market forces to evolve as selling subsides. I am glad to be in ETFs. Some could argue we are oversold and due to go back higher. I wonder where the SPY is with regards to bollinger bands?

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Great month- a review

I have not been diligent about reviewing my performance at month end periods but I was much more disciplined in October and figures show it. My number of trades was way down. I trade with 4 different accounts, I am not sure how to report the number of trades, but suffice to say that there were 10 round trips, some held over from September. I am holding one option that cost me $40, currently a loss. I made a bad trade, unplanned, over emotional in Apple, a good loss. All the other trades were profitable. I am happy with the outcome, but am disappointed with the selling discipline. The 4 accounts were up 7.5, 9.5, 16.7, 5.8%.

I do not want to panic with regards to my 401K and annuity accts so have not looked at them. I got in them long ago, hold nice profits, and want to remain disciplined with regards to buying and selling them. I am looking at 50/200 day moving averages with regards to entry and exits. I do not think we have finished the overall trend up and do not think we will crash and burn to the downside. Mid term we be in limbo!

I see more money to be made short.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Daytrading

BIDU came out with good numbers and tanked last night. It also tanked this am premarket. I followed it, bought near the bottom at 349.4, sold shortly into the open for 364.7, I think a 4% profit. It is higher, might go quite a bit higher but not my style to daytrade recently. I need to leave the computer after this high. Watch me hotstep outta here.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Risk vs Reward

Wishy washy


A few days ago I printed out a list of stocks in the IBD Energy Other group. Looking through them, I see more weakness in solar than expected. For example, it is easy to compare the ETFs TAN vs KOL. Coal is stronger than solar, solar in a bit of a wedge that needs to resolve. There are also a number of solar companies trading below 200 day average, I might stop looking at JASO as much. Compare SOL to where JASO could go from here, right inverse shoulder could easily break.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Scans and emotional

First off, yesterday was a bad trading day for me. I broke recent rules, got quite emotional over Apple and might take a hit from it. One bad trade begat some others, mainly just taking profits earlier than planned. This am of course I look like a genius, maybe it was intuition. No joke, I sold out of all trading positions minutes before the fall yesterday except for that falling fruit. I still believe in the trade, blue sky breakout ala Jesse.

I have done much more work on looking at scans. I try to follow high volume moves up, more of these are failing than working out. I look for them to consolidate after big move and then resume the move, that is what is failing. Tough to put that to a statistical advantage without short selling. Speaking of this, RODM looks like just such a sell but volume patterns dont quite say it yet. Stock wise, I continue to follow JASO for a move, has NEW leaders, I see it is in a 4th low volume pullback, each of the previous 3 were tradeable. Long I am watching ASIA TSRA PLD ARST SGMO EXXI.

ETFs. I have been looking at these as low volatility plays, not gonna easily lose 20% in a fast move. Also considering them in turtle sense, a way to play commodity and sector moves, buy new 4 week high, sell at 2 week low. Recent highs that seem to be holding recent breakouts are JJC USO DBC UGA VEU EWH EWS KOL SLX IAI MXI (which has been volatile of late). If market pulls back, tough to get them here, but they seem to bounce well off of shorter term averages. Market panics have been short term of late, so they might present with good buy in this am after first hour.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

AAPL

I'm willing to take a 10% hit on this one, bought in. Sold my EWM and RSX to buy. I would have preferred to have kept the 18% gain in RSX longer but AAPL looks too good to me. Many will not believe it for a while.

APPLE

AAPL is a buy by many standards. This is a bull market, it is in new high range. If you can tolerate a little pain down to 190 and can let it go it is a buy now. The sky is the limit as people start jumping over each other to own this one. I am even looking to get an ipod touch and I am not a techie.

Poor research am

Lots going on this am, selling some chickens, company here, looking into financing for solar PV system on a new garage. I've been sitting on my hands with what I own. I have not done many of my scans but the following interest me now and in the future. QDEL listed with both increasing earnings and sales, that has been a true rarity in IBD. Chart a little sloppy here but could be buyable if it does not sell down. Rapid testing play sounds good in this H1N1 time. STC looks like a ss bear flaglike pattern. I am looking at solar group stocks today, JASO in particular. It has been "rangebound" tight around the 200day, management changed, group neutral but stronger, maybe head shoulder bottom with 3.66 stop. PBS "The Warning" great stuff last night.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Bragging, Ego, Reflection

When my brother in law last visited he asked for stock tip, he did not ask in a very serious manner. His previous visit I'd told him Netflix if it broke above a certain price range, which it did and had since moved up about 30%. He owns Harley, John Deere, and Kroger, every now and then I glance at them and have not been impressed. Well this time I pulled up the chart for Conseco life, CNO. Showed him what I thought was the consolidation around 5, drew a trend line, explained that I thought it was buyable then and there. After the pop it has taken this week, I want to call and brag! I suspect he did not buy any, he is kinda set in his ways. He mentioned waiting for certain price targets to come and then he was going to cash out for CDs.

By being aware of those around us and their investment philosophies we can learn a lot about the psyche of the public. I find some of this instructive, much of it gives me gratititude. First off, solely due to following the price action of the major indices in relation to moving averages, I only experienced a 12% drawdown in 2008. Few people withdrew their funds, they have certainly not moved them back into the market. THose that have done this stock up on guns and ammo, or have gold hoarded ( I am amazed at how much a friend has). They got out worried about the fiat currency system, listened to the news a lot but really had no disciplined method that told them to get out. They also have no disciplined method to get back in the market. That to me is the biggest fault. They have been missing out on the chance to get filthy rich!

Time magazine cover suggests average 401K is valued around 45K? Work harder, save more, spend less people.

A guy at work yesterday, knowing I am interested in retirement accounts, asked me about borrowing from 401K process. Honestly I have no flippin idea how to do this because it is absolutely stupid. Avoid at all costs.

I talked to a gal married to a guy that trades. When they first met, she bragged how he doubled her account in months. Says he also used to daytrade in a group, made a lot of money at it. For some reason he is working for the hospital full time now, you do the math. I know they got out of the market, have not yet gone back in because he is convinced that the market is going to fall apart. DUDE, we have universal worldwide agreement in this rally! Nobody knows when it will end, but it has been a rally. In my opinion, anyone with decently developed analysis could have made some good money.

My current trading is horribly boring. I miss the thrill of big bucks in and out, the hunt, the highs and lows. But I ended up missing the money worse. Post trade analysis has helped me to change finally and I richer and sleeping better for it.

I'd like to get my coworkers rich, being a nurse is really tough at times, the non financial rewards do not often come. If I could figure out some way to add a 401K gadget tracker I would. Real estate is still okay but AF Europac and a MidCap fund are the current leaders.

I have finished the Curtis Faith Turtle book. Good stuff for basic systems people, good methods for their system which could be adaptable without too much effort into an average Joes trading setup. I most liked taking out of it the fact that those that trade for their ego needs will get quashed. I need to be mindful of this and search for ego satisfaction other ways. So much for bragging.

Its early here, time to get down to research.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

CLICK HERE

Stockcharts guy I newly bookmarked

Gym membership


I was thinking I needed to join a martial arts club to get rid of some bodyfat. Turns out my winter gym membership arrived today...

What I am watching (and stocks that look ok)

One of my accounts is in EWM, only up 3.4%, most everything else is double that or more. I might look to sell and wait or enter some of the following. I'll likely only go for an ETF, but chart wise the following look watchable: CNO BMI HLCS VGZ TXT ZGEN SHZ JJC SLV IXG SEA CEDC GTN EWO CERS. Short candidates RODM USEG.

Monetizing blogs, my message

I took a quick look around the adsense stuff, thought back to blogs I liked and found helpful. I was considering trying to make a few bucks off of this down the road, but I am just not that worried about making a few pennies. I'd rather enjoy my life and make the big bucks.

The other issue is the message I believe in and would put forth, it would not sell. I have nothing to offer, my message is not unique or sexy, I offer little unique insight. The advice I would offer is what I would say to any youngster coming up in the world: Work hard, study, save as much as you can. Pay yourself first. Invest in the best you can, dont be too risky with money you can't lose. Follow the major trends, ignore the news, follow the price. Read a lot. Daytrading for pennies is tough, try the long balls to stay around. Trade less.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Breadth indicators

Click title

Week review

The best thing I heard all week (from Gilmo) was how odd it was that O won the Nobel on the same day that the US bombed the moon!

I've only reviewed a few charts, things look nice. Caught that Dow had new closing high for the year, others are close. Higher volume sure would be nice to confirm but this slow creep sure is good too. Informal sentiment still bearish but more bulls awakening. I have some comfort room in ETF profits but it does not look like I will need them.

Some pigeons completed their first 200 miler, took several days for some, this am I think I see more around.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Fear and Greed

I like the movement of the market. I am still looking at individual stocks but still see where some of what I would have chosen has stayed flat or lost, would have damaged pride some more. Greed keeps me looking, fear keeps me out. Real estate pulled back I expect it is still okay in my 401K for long term hold. Odd how the foreign ETFs move throughout the day, they look like they could be traded intraday. I'd like to read more fundamental international news but might not go looking for anything. EWA interesting, I reviewed my blog, should have bought when I commented on the real infrastructure high speed spending they are doing, not the new sidewalks I see here in the states. I'm all in! DGS EWM EWZ ILF INP RSX THD Systems and Forecasts seems to be good at measuring the VS of the market.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

nada

BRF doing okay even with low volume.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Sitting tight

Perhaps after getting your abs punched enough in the market one can develop a little fortitude and be successful after all. Lets just say I am not down fifty dollars no more sucker! Time and price will tell...

Saturday, October 3, 2009

ETF scans

Odd for me to do some work on Saturday am but it is nice and quiet this am. First off, I view it as important to trade the markets and what they are doing, not trade the economy and what the numbers say. I understand those that argue about a jobless recovery but frankly don't give a darn about figures.

Having said that there are some warning signs about in the markets. Japan clearly busted its 50 day and has made a lower low. This might be an omen for what near term direction is or might end up being supremely buyable. I am taking it as caution. Recent ETF trades now in mild loss position without clear sell signals, I'm down like $50 in total. I bought into ILF and EWZ, left BRF alone due to low volume. Odd that INP was down when NBR said India was up, another india etf was up on the day. There is some other weakness in charts of regional ETFs. Long term I am watching some commodity ETFs for entry points in energy plays but they are not there yet.

Friday, October 2, 2009

End of life

That crap hurt yesterday didn't it? I am reading a new book, "Freakanomics". Check out this site I learned about from it. http://www.tributedirect.com/index.html

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Gun Shy

I reviewed a bunch of charts and see some nice set ups in stocks. I would wait for CEDC to breakout, others that look good here and now are VISN CNO EXXI UTSI HLCS. I almost pulled the trigger on MVIS at 5.1 a couple days ago, it looks in play still. I likely have too much fear to go for stocks but many of those I mentioned have had pullbacks that might go up from here. ETFs that I might more likely buy on pullbacks are ILF EWZ BRF.

I pick up my gun permit today...

Thoughts

I added to INP, sold IYR EWT and XSD as under performers. EWT looks stronger now. I likely would not have bought THD if I looked closer at it then as it is low volume. I am amazed at intraday ETF price movement.

My two hands are still bullishly in the air, gotta wonder if those IBDers at the meetup are still short? This thought comes from a desire to be right, rich, and others wrong. Bad...

I got my second ever comments on the blog. Once again it has nothing to do with my blog, my thoughts, my great trading or wisdom. Instead it seems to be someone that wants to spread some dirt. I do not care to learn the dirt on anyone, it will not help me. I view myself as an ever increasing knowledgeable trader with incredible room to grow. I am capable of the best and worst in the market and have done both. I have listened to others, paid others. But the key is that I am responsible for my money, my trades, my decisions. As far as the past, other than it being instructrive to reflect and change, I prefer to focus on what I can do for me, not what I can do to hurt another.

"The Art of Making Money": A great easy read, not about the market. I read this one on the beach while watching all kinds of fisherman. These guys really reminded me of a bunch of traders in so many ways. Big and little poles, over anxious for small nibbles or normal gyrations, perhaps they missed the real catches due to too much activity.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Sheep or not?

Overall the meetup was a good expereience. I suggest it to anyone new to IBD methods. Leader was knowledgeable, kept good focus. It seemed that a few people knew what they were talking about when they spoke but some of these did not talk much. One guy hijacked a lot, but he was older and had a chart printout with elliott waves drawn on the spy chart. I wanted to here of some great experience hitting home runs but did not. Most everyone there was a young sheep, not sure if they will get shorn... If you are new to active trading beware of losing funds. Very few people were fully invested in the market, I think that the heavy hitters were short after the close last night, many of them acted like the close was as ugly as it gets, I see the numbers as not that bad. I view pullback as buyable, not a collapse. I'll wait for charts and trendlines to say when. A few of my ETFs went red.

What a collective mass of buyers and sellers the IBD crowd must make.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Health care reform

Health care is not a right. Using the word right is just horrible use of the word. The way it is used suggests people are owed this right, but their use more so suggests entitlement to others efforts and resources. We have the right to free speech but not the right to control someone else's free speech or to cause injury with ours. We have the right to bear arms but not the right to shoot others. We have the right to make our vote be known, but not the right to control the vote of another. To say that healthcare is a right is not in a similar vein as the above rights. Stop thinking of this as a right.

On the other hand, if one were to insist on calling healthcare a right, please examine what these rights demand. For all of these, wars have been fought with many lives lost. Education has been required for proper use of the pen, weapon, and to select with the lever. These are responsibilities. If you want to own a handgun, you must get a permit. If you want to hunt you must take a safety class. If you want to vote you must meet criteria. If you want to get your free speech out to the public you must get a job, carry a sign, or be a better blogger. What responsibilities will be required for the right to healthcare?

Having a "right" to healthcare is one thing. But does the providing party have a responsibility to provide? Can we legislate the bankruptcy of our system? Are we going to eliminate the profit motive, the capitalistic self preservation that drives our innovation? Will the brightest and the best leave this industry in search of greener pastures?

If the public, with perhaps imperfect knowledge, wants the system to change then perhaps we should change the system. But lets call a duck a duck and stop calling it a right, call it what we want. But be cautious of that which can't be known until we get there.

Let's meetup

IBD works with a group called meetup for investors to get together and learn/share, sometimes they even send speakers to the meetings. Years ago I tried to start my own in town here, never got a hit from anyone real. Tonight I am going to my first meeting albeit in a larger town many miles away. I am searching for inspiration and a fun night out. I expect I have something to share though not that inspiring. I have been a sheep amongst wolves, expect I will see quite a few sheep.

ETF (IYR DGS EWT INP THD XSD EWM RSX)positions are all +0 to 4% in the short time I've had them. This brings 2 accounts up maybe 5%, two others down a bunch still. Other retirement accounts in mutual fund style investing are up 29, 33, and now 49%! I expect the ETFs to treat me well in coming months. Not as exciting but more profitable.

What is happening right now: major market indexes continue hitting new highs with good breadth, this is bullish!

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Book Review

First off, I do not regret selling out of all stocks this week even though one is quite a bit higher now. They still need five and six million dollar volume up days to impress me as that is what they did on recent distribution days.

I've just finished Tom Lydon's "The ETF Trend Following Playbook". Save the money if you understand moving averages to guide trading and can find a full list of ETFs that are tradeable. Read the book if you want to learn more about ETFs and what is available. It is a playbook in that it teaches what can be traded, general long term guidelines to follow to do so well. It lacks a coach in that it does not offer specific how to guide. I might be biased by experience in that much if not all that was written was familiar to me. My vote: save the money, wait for library. I have not looked at his website to comment on that, more of value might be there.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Real Estate, videos by mail

When I adjusted my portfolio I got out of the energy sector as it has lagged others. I do so at a time when I see suggestions to start getting overweight in energy. At some point I think energy will be a buy but I did not see it for now. It had underperformed everything else I was invested in. I bought more real estate in 401Ks and enjoyed watching IYR move more yesterday.

I have just a few stocks right now. The video by mail company had been looking good. I bought near the bottom of a pattern/channel/trendline when it was down, it then moved lower. Just a few days ago I got an email suggesting its better days have passed by. I have been printing charts of stocks I think could be big winners, maybe one a month. Well this stock had shown greatly increasing percent ownership by funds, and a larger number of funds owning it each month, including a chart I looked at just a few days ago. Well after the close last night I saw that these numbers are now SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, making it look like funds are getting out of this. So I have lost a lot of confidence in the stock. The close of yesterday makes it look like it will go up a bit this am, I think I will look to sell.

I am hurting in an oversubscribed issue novavax, sold half yesterday. The company story is great for the long term, I might sit with the rest for a bit. CNO has done well but I am changing how I do this.

I am more and more comfortable with the idea of ETF investing. Yes AIG, C, CNO are going to do well long term. But the pain of seeing account values go down is really incredible prior to some of the moves. In a way, I see that I will have a future with greater control over my finances when I quit work and have control over 401Ks. I need to trade bigger trends in less volatile issues. A mutual fund could work out well except one has to take end of day pricing. ETFs allow trades at the market at the time of the order while performing similar to a fund. I have lost a lot of benefit of compounding by overtrading. If I'd have traded more big picture moves like my 401Ks I would surely be a year closer to quitting work.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Buy and hold

Perhaps I am not the best trader and need more of a buy and hold approach. I like coupling this with moving average analysis similar to many classic texts and here.

http://home.pacbell.net/easan//SRFAI.html

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Market sentiment, recent buys, 401k analysis


I do not have great news programs to listen to but I follow a few things on the net and read a fair amount. People are scared, do not trust the new bull. I find this to be true for amateurs and pros alike. Welcome to the wall of worry.

I bought into pullbacks of some new high (and high relative strength) generally foreign ETFs and one stock with defined risk exit points. If they pullback I expect they will not make lower lows.

On the 401K review, real estate is the bomb! Something like 15% growth in two months! Large cumbersome US based funds severely lag all other stock funds so I will likely close out that which is invested with Ferdinand and move into the others that are doing better by several percentage points. Beyond that, the relative performance of international issues seems to be better but not as much so of late. Value, small cap, mid cap have all had decent moves. I discovered IBD lets me graph these funds vs an index all on the same page and adjust the viewable date so I can see what has done better for given time frames. A great feature for just a few hundred bucks a year. The charts at the Ferdinand sight are more awkward to use.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

FEAR

This morning I find myself filled with fear as I look at charts. I see lots of good set ups, the market failed to tank last week, and I expect mad money can be made. But I feel like my teeth have been kicked in too many times. I also will be doing just fine with average returns for now. So I will look to stay long with what I have, go long with 50-100% of available cash in a handful of ETFs, evaluate retirement accounts and perhaps adjust them. I will not sell out of many positions due to short term panics, rather see our current market as slow grower worthy of owning (the big boys ain't selling). I expect ETFs to grow modestly better than the SP500 without the expensive haircuts.

I take this fear as a good dose of rational market maturity all too hardly earned.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Systematic set up

Today I am reviewing some recent books and evaluating statistical analysis of trading in an effort to systematize my trading better. I will likely look at setting up rules to track and trade sector ETFs and individual stocks.

Monday, August 31, 2009

Keeping score

Market direction

I continue with amazement at the number of people not saving money. Very few of my coworkers even know what they are contributing to retirement funds IF they contribute at all. They have no idea what the money is invested in. One gal suggested she would go talk to a financial advisor to tell her what to do! I suggested she read Jane Bryant Quinns "Making the most of Your Money" or even consider some Dave Ramsey books (never read them but get the idea).

I have no idea what direction the market is going. But we were beaten down so bad for so long that I suspect those that had to sell sold and that nobody is left that has to sell.

I cancelled my remaining newsletter from Gilmo but have paid thru November, gonna grab the stick on my own again. I've traded better of late that way.

I remember a biblical story of a man that had a demon cast out only to attract seven more demons. I view the search for trading truths somewhat similarly in that in looking for the holy grail one opens oneself up to partial or half truths (demons). It just takes a lot of time and perspective to figure this out some. You gotta be careful looking for something as it might just be found.

Save your money, pay yourself first, manage risk so the benefits of compound interest can work for you.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I'm giddy

Gotta get away and do some hard labor. Current positions in trading accounts are up: 47,14,14,42,9%. This brings one of the accounts up >10% YTD! Gotta stick with rules and ride them until the trend is over.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Computer set-up

I have a few years old HP dual core computer. I can't find much that will help me trade better yet so I stick with what I have until much better comes out or my net service gets faster. I have 2 monitors of different size so that I can see charts, generally keep 3 issues up, the one I am most interested in has it up in 3 time frames, otherwise just 2 time frames for the others.

I have to use internet explorer for IBD graphs. I use Mozilla Firefox for all else, Thunderbird for email. I try to turn all auto updates off, do not want things screwing up my day. If I see computer start slowing down, I shut down everything except my trading platform. I might also open the task manager to look at processes running and using lots of memory or whatever. Then I shut them down if I can tell what they are.

I regularly scan with Norton and the following:
http://www.lavasoft.com/products/ad_aware_free.php
http://download.cnet.com/Spybot-Search-amp-Destroy/3000-8022_4-10122137.html

I will also run whatever preloaded clean your computer up stuff their is with the computer and more so the application that come with Norton. I'll also look at all programs installed and get rid of what I do not use or want. Extra programs really bog things down.

Stay away from net filth!

If trading speed is important, less is best.

Flavorful pears

Ground bees










I've received a few calls and heard some stories about ground bees that gave folks a run for their money. I always assumed these were a small yellow jacket kind of bee until a few days ago when I was weedeating near the house. I came across this nest, at first I thought that it was just a couple but it ended up being more like hundreds. The three stings I got hurt like heck.

5. Name a risky thing you have done and why.

Like many traders I have seen the turtle trader books on the shelves. I've passed them by time and again after flipping through their pages but have just recently picked one up by someone that studies great traders. I highly suggest Michael Covel's Trend Following: Learn how to make millions in up or down markets. I find many powerful ideas in this book that many do not talk or write about.

If you click on the title of this post you ought o go to a video that answers this question for me that was brought forward to the original turtles. I did this at a time in my life that I was expressing little personal power, had barely a nickel to my name, no real education, and I allowed others to do my thinking for me. Since that time, or as part of the whole process of changing my life, many of those things have changed and I am a different person.

Fear does not bind me into inaction.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Rethinking



So I determined that I would change some stuff with how I invest, focus on ETFs that allow swing trading without easy 10-20% losses the way some IBD "leading" stocks have done at so called technical breakout points. I still need to get back to getting this list together, formulate how I will track them, and then determine entry and exits.

Having said that, chance favors the prepared mind. I've recovered some with some decent trades off the bottoms in two stocks whose charts I'll try and post here. CNO entry was unexpected but the action a few days ago screamed it was ready to go higher. Story wise I suspect that it is not as oversold as AIG but should see some significant upside action in coming years. I traded for some nice profit in this one already. C is a similar story, I've had it for a short while, now with a cushion to consider being an investor. Both of these stocks were hit poorly by market selloff of late. I think moneys here could be doubled in near term with some market magic.

Reflecting further on IBD complaints, I think the poor performance of this style for now is really an indication of market conditions being not too hot near term. Rubber band theory working well, things coming more to neutral after being stretched too far in odd directions. Also, banking and insurance are highly rated groups in IBD but likely have too much fear associated with them to be amateur subscribed.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Yo dips, buy the dips!

The fed is closing another thingamabob they been propping the economy with with in October. This is a good thing. Prechter is wrong-nobody left needs to sell, I expect he'll be waving to lost money. Price is telling a different story dude. And for those without money in the market right now, waiting for the story to be different, turn your news outlets off and look at charts. We are playing around with new highs for the year right here and now. Ignore your emotions, get a set of rules to live and trade buy. Buy buy.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Weekend Reflections

I am amazed that I can have my finger on the overall big picture of the market reasonable well and do so poorly in my active trading. The growth in retirement accounts at work and an annuity still have me up over 15% YTD, but the trading accounts are dismal. I am fairly well resolved to stick with what positions I have (4 stocks) until they violate serious long term averages like the 30 week or 50 week and if they do this to then only trade in ETFs of mutual funds for big picture moves.

The stocks I am in vary a bit. One has a lot of industry attention as a leader and might go further. It seems like some folks are selling it as it has moved to new 52 week highs this past week. Another is one I have visited a few times before and vomited all over the place, back in at new highs on volume, some folks are saying it has bad pattern. After I bought it tanked and has hurt my best performing trading account seriously. Two others do not meet normal criteria that I look for, but seem to be moving up a lot on potential. If swine flu turns out to be a big problem it might have me rolling in mud like a happy pig. I traded CNO for nice short term gain. It looks like it could be a buy and hold issue.

We canned some tomatoes, apple saucce this weekend. I've got the best and loving spouse in the world. I am grateful for these things.

I need to put in more footwork!

Sunday, July 26, 2009

End of weekend reflection

Earnings in am on my major stock holding!!!

This is a tough business to be in. I need to do much more on a daily basis. I need to sharpen my mission statement. I am starting to scan for more stocks in industries that could grow well, many have had giant moves with some tells weeks before the move. Some of these are off the radar issues, never make a net mention or IBD until long after the move has begun. I want to follow these better.

I need a bigger monitor for longer quote screens. Gotta bank some buck to get it. I think screen real estate would be better reward than a chair.

Post 2 Celebrate


I did some things very well this week. I remember the pasta rally in AIPC, seemed to be a great winner in a new bull market but I sat on the sidelines and made no money off of it. The rally seemed to be helped by addition of the company to some index, making lots of volume flow into the stock. I was befuddled at the time. Recently RHT was announced as replacing some issue in the SP 500, gapped open big and has held. I figured itwould go higher, bought a call on 7/20, sold on 7/24 near the high of the day, made a dollar for each five at risk. It might go more but I've lost a lot of money on calls when I did not take the quick profit.

The other trade I executed well was one that just kind of fell in my lap. Maybe not. I've been following GMCR as potential leader for quite a while, have traded in it once pre split, price action scared me out. Alarms went off again on 7/20 as it went higher. I'd just sold REIT HTS thinking that market strength was turning more in favor of strong stocks. I bought into GMCR on what I view as day of breakout and am sitting on a profit now in one account.

Sunday post 1


I was going to go outside to mow but sat down to review charts. I have a notebook I keep some records in, took a look at overall performance YTD of 10.2%, bulk of gains in retirement accts, bulk of losses in active trading accounts. If this keeps up I might have to start being a very passive investor in the overall style of my 401Ks. I'd be so much further ahead if I'd done that from the beginning. If I decide to go that route it will be a tough pill to swallow.

I have the sheet of paper I kept records on from January 5th, 2009. I was following the range of the Dow and SP and it looks like I was actively following NFLX(31.94-42.20 now), FRPT Feb $5 calls ( made money from there and then blew up) and VISN (7.3 then, 6.7 now-I am still following this range bound great fundy stock). At the bottom of the paper are stocks I made a note to start following. Prices are the high of the day for 1/5 and closing price of issue this past Friday

SXCI 19.27 29.61
MDRX 10.2 16.44
SOHU 50.39-63.63
BIDU 139-358
APWR 5.49 10.78

Clearly I can pick some winners to follow. I've traded in NFLX, VISN, and APWR since then, done with APWR. Today I am looking more in depth with my lack of trading these other issues, and reminding myself that pending some horrible breakdown in the stock, perhaps holding them longer without the bouncing in and out is the way to go.

Looking at charts, BIDU is the only one that seems to have not clearly given a sell signal during these moves.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Rehash

1. I've got 2 day old pigeons! Some of my young birds have not returned from a training flight, not sure what the issue was, thought I'd treated them well. Perhaps it is time to spend some coin and get some of the classic texts.

2. The market continues to amaze many. For the most part I have stayed long the same issues for quite a while. I got too extended with losing option positions in SNDA and STAR. STAR then broke out of nice consolidation area, SNDA might do the same. I suspect I bought as they went to new high, then had to sit thru pain. Option expiry ahead had me get lighter. Correction, I was not in SNDA, rather in SYNA which is broke big for now, still on the watch list...

3. After such a big Wednesday, it is a lot easier to say that I am still bullish. I was sleeping well with what I had. I bought a stock on new high b/o on volume and sat on it thru 20% loss, now coming back. But it is a newer issue that is more volatile. My buy on it was good, my analysis was good, it just wasnt continuing higher. I feel my buys and sells have been much less emotional, much more so rules and analysis based. It feels good, if it continues I'll get somebig winners.

4. Market seemed to pop nicely when breadth indicators were pretty bad, must have been an oversold thing in a bull market!

Sunday, June 28, 2009

She's got eggs!


Actually this is the male in the pic. Leg band on that is seen is for racing. This is a borrowed mated pair from a friend so I can raise some white youngsters. I think 18 days to hatch, should be due about July 15th. Click image for larger.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Book Review

I've just finished reading Greg Morris' Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. A great read, I plan on adding some of this to my daily routine. Some of the stuff is easier to see relationships with than others, my guess is I'll skip the one in a blue moon indicators and stick with broad trend stuff that does not swing around much. Assessment of market breadth notably important.

The McClellan family of indicators gets a lot of mention there and I have seen them elsewhere. I've not seen all of these as an option on sites I've used before so I went to their site: http://www.mcoscillator.com/
It looks like too much information to me. In particular I note them calling for bullish moves in June 08 and Oct 08 that clearly did not materialize.

I wise man once wrote to me that "Only price pays".

Friday, June 26, 2009

It's about the money.

I am perusing the recent posts in some online forums and find myself wanting to unleash a fly rant...

I see comments like "my gut", "I feel", "I think". Folks have ideas about the market that I disagree with based upon recent market action and TA 101.

At the top of the bull market, disbelievers like myself lost serious chump change, continuing to ignore market action based upon beliefs and listening to too many glowing whirly boxes.

I have not participated in the bulk of the move off the lows, am kicking myself and trying to learn what happened, why I missed it, how I can note it next time. It don't matter what I believe/think/feel, what happened is BOOM! If I'd have caught some greater portion of that move with some amazing trading vehicles out there my life would be forever changed in financial term.

I like having all the mkt noise off.

Early am thoughts

Believing we are heading for better times, I view having long term money in the market as a good thing. I've tried to be better disciplined about jumping back in after bad days, this has been beneficial. My 401K buys or sells at closing prices so buying on dips helps. The trick YEARS down the road is to recognize things near the top and sell out after big gains.

From a technical analysis standpoint when viewing the SP500 chart, we had a low of 878.94 on 5/15. Our most recent low did not hit that. This can be viewed as a higher low. Our recent high of 956.23 is higher than previous high of 930.17. From what I've read this is bullish or how an uptrend works. Going down below 878 breaks this.

The fed recently began the process of closing 2 manners in which they could help lend money to big folks. I like this.

I am reading a book on market indicators and hope to add a few of these to my analysis of the markets.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

todays answer

http://www.chartpattern.com/10_golden_rules.html

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

What are the right questions?

Okay, a post of odd thoughts I'm having.

Observing others at work, in trading rooms and forums, I often suspect that people ask the wrong questions in life and trading. By this I mean they are looking too small, too little, not dreaming enough. Too many just want to get by, find an easy way, be spoon fed. While I know that my dreams and hopes are large, I wonder if seeing these characteristics in others is really just a reflection of myself.

I want to focus on the big things with big questions. What questions do I need to be asking for success in life and trading? I believe that asking the right questions leads us closer to the answer.

Monday, June 15, 2009

I am still bullish...

I did not like the looks of what I owned late last week. TNDM broke hard on large volume. I do not know why. Two bigshots in the company spoke at some fancy thing (http://www.wsw.com/webcast/blair17/tndm/), at the end you here they are going to another room to continue the discussion. I figure something was talked about there that scared analysts away. I was up in this with options and stocks by near 20% at one point, ended up losing it and then some. Stock loss was a perfect 8%. I was working big break day, might have sold if I was at home watching that volume come in. I am not sure if I should have taken some profit earlieror if my sit on it for big win would be better. I sold last Friday. BROKEN for now.

GMCR-hot stock. I only had options, instead of over $3 each I got like 20 cents, likely only paid for the trade. TNDM and LFT action had me scared, also got out Friday. This might still be okay to watch.

APWR-the one true winner, got maybe 20% on it in my wifes Roth, nice to have her ahead of my Roth for a change. This account now profitable YTD. Leaders action and my fear had me sell despite being a winner, earnings out 6/16, might be best to sit out earnings. I am continuing to follow and will by this one again if price and volume suggest it to me.

I'm glad I sold these and did not get ill today. I do not think this is a big break in market, leaving everything else where it is, kinda sticking with rules based trading.

My new young birds took first flight yesterday!

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Adjustment, Emotional Check

I was holding off on removing remainder 1/3 of a 401K back into the market until the 50 day index averages were trading above the 200 day (see here please or click on post title to go: http://home.pacbell.net/easan/SRFAI.html) but took advantage of yesterdays pull back to put that money back in. I'd had the account split in 5, got rid of two underperformers and added two that have been doing well. This acct is 40% international, 20% realestate, 40% US. Of note: The naz and semis both have 50 day average above 200 day, dah bull is good!

I am grateful I've had things to do the past couple of days and have not spent the entire day in front of computer. My emotions have been running high. I am not sure what it means. But in the same manner that I was calm when some issues were down and slept well, I want the same to be true when stocks are doing well. Even when I was up >80% in late 2007 I was still in and out of the market a lot. If I'd just held some of the leaders I'd have done even better. While I love watching the bells and whistles all day long, I think I'd be better off fully engaged in life and watch things like Darvas.

Then again, I'd have to have the monitor on with full volume so my spouse could grab me when an alert popped!

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Yesterday

That was my greatest ever day to not trade. I would like to learn such success! My positions will stay as they are.

Account updates:
401K 1: 11.8% YTD (all in)
401k 2: 7% (2/3 in)
annuity: 26% YTD
cash: Under water but improved
Roth1: even
Roth2: 20%YTD
SP500: 4.3%

Goals at start of year were to double the last three accounts by year end.

Monday, June 1, 2009

General thoughts

1. This abortion doctor death is screwy. If these folks would put there energy into productive means they could achieve more. I remember the poster in elementary education room "I might not agree in what you believe, but I will fight to the death for your right to express it".

2. General Motors shows their is no safe stock, no blue chip buy and hold. Evolve or else.

3. I've taken to looking at IBD newspaper graphs a little different. On page B1 of the Monday June 1, 2009 I am impressed with stocks number 4 and number 2 as evidenced by quick scans of the volume patterns. They were nothing and now are huge. We will see how this turns out, I own one of them and am watching the other.

4. Overseas indices are off the hook this am! MOMO is higher! Nobody is selling any longer. For the week ahead I am only watching earnings on SNDA 6/3. My yahoo economic calendar is much longer than normal, we shall see.

5. Click on post title (I think) for interesting link to trader site. Periodic updates and neat rules for uptrend observation. I've been following the new high new low list for a while in IBD and it has been a while since lows were greater than highs.

6. EBAY is tough to use and they continue to make it tougher, also I've heard of unhappy bulk sellers. I think it could go the way of AOL and be nearly useless. AOL always tried to rip me off at cancellation time, such crooked practices can't be sustainable.

Good luck!

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Some Bird brained buys


Sometimes one gets crazy ideas of things to buy and hold. This might turn out to be a lifetime investment. Surely more to follow. The way these have worked before, click image for larger size.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Greed

This morning I awaken to look at charts and find myself wishing I had more money to invest. There just seem to be a lot of stocks doing well or ready to do well. The future really does look bright. Things might not do well this week, but the trend in my view is no longer down. This will be confirmed by more stocks hitting new highs, indexes both trading above their 200 day averages and have their 200 day averages level out and start moving up.

I am surprised at the disbelief that abounds. I'd ask those that don't believe when they would change their minds. I suspect they will be late comers to the party as they are waiting for news to be better. As for me, I am willing to climb the wall of worry (and I am sleeping well at night).

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Emotions

Dominated my trading of the past week or two. NFLX went against me and I sold. Tough to say if I should not buy something in a downtrend, or was my judgement just wrong at that time and it was good I took a small loss rather than a large one. Time might not tell on that one. TNDM continues to yank chains all over the place, perhaps thursday past was bullish action with recovery off massive loss.

Market moves down and poor recent returns had me singing the blues. One thought is to quit this all. The other is to focus on what great traders would do and then do it. Fake it until I make it. So today I look at lots of charts to see what is going on.

I've done this before, the positive thing with this funk is relative shortness, just a few days.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Resolved

I will develop a mission list, business plan to detail how I will trade in the market. This is born out of wasting time, falling back on old habits, and not working a plan. I am unhappy with my actively managed trading accounts, very happy with annuity and 401Ks.

I find myself wanting to pay an advisor to spoon feed me. I know what to do, just need to do it.

FCRS

I admit I am! I left a buck on the table compared to close.

If it does not go parabolic it should set up for a bit prior to going higher much. NFLX has consolidated on lower volume and has greater chance. However, it was bad trade entry for me, bad emotion, not planned.

Bad news for banks and they up. Trade charts not news. Nibbled UYG.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Update

It might prove to be an amateur move but TNDM gave me a scare this am and I sold. It is still very much on my watch list. I'd just printed out the daily and weekly graphs to compare to when I got in it, lots of things were better like estimates, EPS growth rate and estimates, fund ownership, and the number of funds in. On the down side it listed lower (only average) group strength and a lower U/D Volume ratio. With yet another high volume gap crap open my I sold. It looked like I could give back profits. If it recovers I will be the first to call myself a FIRST CLASS REPEAT SHITHEAD!

One of the things I think about doing is a mission statement or business plan. One of the things I would have to address is how I want to make money in the market. Do I want to buy and hold in good market, or do I want to try and focus on moving in and out of the leaders only when the charts suggest they are ready for a move?

Along those lines I went long NFLX with unsettled funds. It has pulled back from 50 to near 45 now, looks like it chased folks out with a spurt to 42 and should hold 44 at this juncture. Volume low for the day, I expect this might be a few days early for a big move.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

I want a 50 bagger!

I wonder if any handicappers gambled on the jockey.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Position update

I'm happy to report that money I have put back in the market is working on my behalf nicely. Longterm retirement money is up 1.6, 1.8, and maybe 8%, these in funds that I cant exchange but once a quarter. The big gainer is largely from real estate and financials. I have had some whipsaws in these accounts but have stuck to plan. I do think this has been good start to accumulation in the market.

I see NFLX has been on the map big. I have not traded this one of late but I continue to like its prospects. It looks like a hold or avoid for now, perhaps wait for more tree shaking to finish up. One of the things on my to do list is to get a list of what are good buy points in leading stocks, this one sure bounced nice near the 50 day average.

I was stupid recently with some SAY, lost very little, holding $90 worth of calls on it for July 2.5. Odds figure further decline at this point.

I own one stock in several trading accounts. It has an okay story, not quite on public radar, good numbers, good price movement. I aim to hold it for good market moves. It is tempting to sell it for my 10-11% gain that I have thus far as I am back to start of year account balances. But above my trading area I keep charts of big winners I have owned before that I sold out of prior to end of run, basically being chicken shit with poor rules. The current charts up are FSLR, POT, and ISRG. ISRG was one that I left a lot of money on the table with the puts I had after market turned down. I just had very little big market perspective at the time and allowed my $20 put to go to 100 in a week...

I hate the action of the market indices action yesterday. I suspect lots of wind lost from the sails. Early candles line up to say if we have a bad day, or even a slightly bad day that turn of market direction could be coming next week. That would be good for eyeing ideal market entry!!! QQQQ near its 200 day average, it would be nice to see that pierced. My buy call for QLD at 30 with 20 stop looks rich. Shoot from the hip entry would be 32.

I am rereading Weinstein classic.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Book Review

I've recently finished Boik book Monster Stocks. I normally buy my books used but bit the bullet for this one new. It is a rehash of WON books, easily read, okay examples. I enjoyed it and suggest to those looking for big runs in bull market. It is best for swing or investors, not as much for day trading how to.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Yah baby holding working

401K, fear

Lots of people are scared of the market. There is a lot of bad news coming out now, things really seem bad. Despite this the market has improved. I moved over half of retirement account funds back into the market a short period of time ago. While the volatility has been crazy and has me fearful, the account balances in all regards are up.

Now what two sectors are amongst those we should be most cautious of? Would financials and/or real estate be on that list? These are the two that have performed the best! It was a bit of a speculative play, not much that said they were strong, but they are clearly doing better.

It is interesting to see the disagreement in the market. It is interesting to sense some personal growth as I hold trades longer, move in the market during time of fear, and see some previously well respected net resources be different than I.

I was working my day job on the 15th, but the candles sure screamed buy netflix around 3 pm. What a profit it could have been.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Travelling idea

Check this site out
http://www.airbnb.com/

Gold fundamentals

Lots of folks look into gold trades, some buy it as long term investment for collapse of US economy. I have never followed gold in any fashion, recently heard someone comment that it is useless to do so for the following reason. We spend lots of money to get gold out of the ground, ship it, buy it, then spend lots of money to bury it in the ground and protect it. It is not being used for new or more goods or services that increase it values in a manner that netflix is growing their new product or service. I want exponential growth! My guess is that some of the gold issues will set up for good short sales in the coming months.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Netflix-need to hold em

I'm beyond kicking myself on this one but man did I have Netflix correct. I'd said here to buy when above 40.9, then had it at 41.63. This am I see it approaching 49, a 17% move in less than a month. But I am far from perfect and sold this one when I elt myself get chased out. Sometimes fear really screws with you, forces your hand. I forget how firm of a stop loss on this, but it was a mental one.

I'd like to ask myself WWDD? What would Darvas do? He would have been away from the market, ignoring intraday price action, might have even had this one on margin. I suspect he would watch this one for a pullback to $45 or even the 50 day average. For now it really looks like a great winner of the future. Installed on LG tvs and now video games. Increasing stock of bluray also.

NFLX lesson is helping me to hold onto another leading stock that is a little more sluggish, not as much in the public eye, but showing great fundamentals and price action-constructive pullback now.

Happy trading!

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Long Live the queen


I cut back on my queen order, down to 5. I'd only had 9 okay hives alive and unable to buy frames of brood with ease. They are sitting in the kitchen for now, need to get them out to the splits I made yesterday. What you are seeing here is a 3 hole cage, right side has a fondant candy plug that all the bees will eat through when I remove the cork covering the end. The left side has a cork to keep the bees in, I will pull the cork out if queen is not released in 3 days (never had to do it). The queen has her head aimed for 12 oclock, tail towards 6 oclock. It can be seen here that she is larger than the rest, with a little food and attention her abdomen does get larger. These are the cordovan italians from CF Koehnen, a favorite of mine. CLICK IMAGE FOR DETAILS

Now that's infrastructure



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Australia-to-build-30-bln-apf-14866603.html

Via yahoo finance this am I see a story of Australia building out broadband network to increase traffic speeds 100x. I wish the US had more of this. I understand some of the plans for utility buildouts, but this does not really change things much for the average Joe.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Suggested reading

1977 mine was 2nd ed
Michael G. Zahorchak
The Art of Low Risk Investing.
Easy, simple, understandable.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Be prepeared


The hard work done now will bear fruit in the future. It can't be seen or touched but it will grow and ripen and be delicious.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Time to stop sleeping

I feel energized and hopeful that things will be better ahead. I see great stock set ups and quality issues breaking out to new highs. Be on the lookout! Mums the word from here on out.

Blow me down popeye

Click on header above for interesting thoughts on AIG and banks unwinding at taxpayer expense. Why haven't I seen this in mainstream press?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/guest-post-banks-were-profitable-in.html

I'm out of NFLX, should have walked away from computer and held...

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Recent trade comments

As I have said before, if I would just follow my rules, things I know to be correct, than I would be rich. It was absolutely idiocy to buy in a downtrend...which I did for both of them. I got stopped out of STAR, got wiser per my rules on some of the NFLX. The other NFLX was in an account that I needed to let previous trade settle prior to selling, to I am back in a profit. I felt like a shmuck with the loss I had on the other part, but rules is rules. All time frames say up for now, average price 41.63 (it would have been lower if I did what I was originally planning on).

http://www.netflix.com

Monday, March 30, 2009

Paid site

I've followed the above site for a few months. Searching for the holy grail of trading leads one on all kinds of searches. The above site is from a guy that talks to other traders about how they do things, there is a lot of info there, I enjoyed the old interviews also.

Recently it has become a paid site. Figuring it was something of great value after reading the sales pitch, I emailed the owner requesting info as to how he has done. After all it is the acid test of trading (and why one should use caution in following me). Keep in mind that he interviewed a guy that publicly recorded 2008 gains in excess of one million. I salute this guy for being honest in his reply. You be the judge of the value of the knowledge and interviews at the site. Reply follows:

Thanks for the note. I'm probably a better interviewer than a trader, but I
shoot for a conservative $500 a week with my trading and have been fairly
steady that way for a year. My issue, and I hope to figure it out by
talking with these traders myself, is that every time I start to increase my
position size to make that $500 go to $2,000 or $3,000 per week, I don't
seem to have the same success.

So I'm on a trading journey just as everyone else is. Hope that helps.

All the best,

Tim

---
Tim Bourquin, Co-Founder, Ideas For Download
27285 Las Ramblas Ste 235 | Mission Viejo, CA 92691

http://www.traderinterviews.com/

For some, the world is full of gold.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Forbes magazine

I caught up on my reading of Forbes the past two weeks. Once or twice a year I read back issues when visiting family. This time brought two things worthy of sharing.

1. To avoid being a victim of fraud from investment advisors they should not be the ones in charge of your money. Have a money manager and an advisor.

2. When watching TV such as PBS' Nightly Business Report it is interesting to note how those on the show have to make minimum disclosures regarding when they own what they talk about. Forbes has many columnists that "suggest" several trading vehicles in each publication yet I saw nary a disclosure. Part of the financial system overhaul needs to include much greater regulation of such things. I want dates, prices, relationships etc... In other words Forbes aint getting none of my money.

Waiting


The market has been amazing me in many ways. I fear I am missing out on a great new bull market, this stirs my greed to the point I consider some bad decisions. I've cleared my head a little with some comfortable time away from the bright lights. Yesterday and today I made a few hundred with two quick trades going long QID after it gapped opened lower. NFLX stays strong, I'll look to buy if it can pull back more Friday. This risks holding over the weekend after such a great run but I think the up days on 1/27 and 2/23 on massive volume show strong buying by the big guys. I bought some STAR today and will hold it for a bit. It showed up on my screening last night, numbers are good, 50 DMA is near 15 and is sloped up. RS and group is good. The big money to be made is with the 401K account, still in cash. SMA 50 on SPY still sloped down and short term averages still less than the 200 day average. SPY is peaking above trends lines in following, more to be revealed. Click on chart image for full size.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Bee on Hyacinth


Click on pic for larger image, note the moist looking light colored pollen sac

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Economic stimulus

Barry is our first African American president, truly history. I am proud to be an American. I wish he would stop talking so much on TV. Every time he talks he just has to tell the US how big his package is, and that he is going to stimulate us. Too much!

I do not understand much of what is being done with regard to the real stimulus and bailouts. The government in my view is wasting money, throwing good after bad. The autos are much cheaper than when the US bought in via loans. Th banks are significantly less than when they were first kept open. And AIG is another. Programs to create jobs seem to be more along the lines of temporary fixes rather than programs to help. I guess there is likely something to be said for teachers, policeman, and bridges but giving them money for jobs is not favoring growth. We need to increase incentives for entrepeneurs to start new business and to encourage profitable businesses to expand. That is how this will get fixed and it will not be quick. What percent of the bailout is designated along these means?

Politics

It is unfreakenbelievable to me that the state department does not have a Russian dictionary.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

October 87

I was listening to bloomberg radio this am, thought to watch some of Nightly Business Report and Wall Street week on youtube from "October 87 crash". Amazing to see where the market numbers were then relative to where they are now. And the market came back stronger than ever.

There are 2 major losses when it comes to the market. Lost opportunities and lost capital. I am willing to pass on some chancey situations to preserve money.

Wait

I sit in front of the computer most days off watching and waiting for the market to be better. I expect that I have learned an awful lot, I think I have all the tools to be a great trader and yet am full of character defects that have prevented the million dollar payday. Post analysis tells me I have done well in bull markets but my continual hope for money and fear of missing out had me trading too much for quite a while now. Discipline in this regard has been much improved. I'd set a rule a while ago to only trade when I was confident enough to have retirement funds in the market. Then the rising tide that carries all ships will again be in my favor.

The great thing about the market is that it always does come back and that demand for stocks will return. One just has to wait it out while raising more cash for the big paychecks of the future.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Spring fever

I am not sure if I'll need them all but I went ahead and ordered 20 queens for expected delivery April 6th. I thought about packages but they are nearly $100 each.

Beekeeping


I've kept bees for maybe 8 years now. Last year I got real lazy, my back was sore, and I was following the market a lot more. I sold the bulk of my hives and kept some. More than 50% of what I had alive has died. Overall my low chemical methods have had 50% winter kill but this winter it was likely more from a lazy beekeeper not feeding enough. I've got maybe 10 hives alive now. I do not want to get large again but would prefer to grow some as able and sell off some hives each year to sell off what equipment I have (enough for 100). Just feeding the bees today my back is quite sore, lifting patients at work does not trouble me this much. So I plan to chronicle my casual reexpansion here. The following pic is from on of the hives today. In general I am happy with what is alive now.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Free Money!

Market whipsaw

The volatility in the market is amazing these days. I imagine that skilled daytraders can make a killing but for the average Joe it is too much. Three percent movement is just insane either way you take it. Without standards to go by, one can't help but be whipsawed around.

I have some beliefs regarding fundamentals. There are too many unknowns. Deleveraging of these new banks (trading firms that used to be like 30:1 and now might have 10:1 limit) might still be going on. I have no idea about the "banks gotta lend money" again story but it sounds like bunk to me. I do not know anyone trying to borrow that has been refused. Maybe this is just about loaning money to the Circuit Citys of the world to prop them up? Hiring has not started. Capital resources are being deployed absent free market ideals, this will slow recovery. While this is not well written, there is too much that is bad for this to be a time to enter the market.

What if we have seen the bottom? Picture an army about to battle hand to hand. Do you want to be the first one charging? Not me but neither do I want to be last. The first might get all the glory or cash, but they are more likely to be slaughtered.

How can we know it is safe to enter? I will look for several things. IBD should call rally mode. Market should start moving higher and make higher highs. Large volume should come in. There should be solid market leadership (this is something I have concerns about properly spotting). And the shorter term averages should be trading above the longer term ones. More on this here: http://tiny.pl/bmb7

Sunday, February 22, 2009

My retirement account proposal

Did anyone get a phone call from a broker or advisor warning them of this market mess? Have the biggest and brightest on TV and DC told us that the fan was gunked up? No, no, no.

The deleveraging process appears to continue helped out by Geithner imprecision, election year market cycle, and horrible fundamentals. And yet still the message to buy now, hold onto your mutual funds message remains. They are all wrong.

What freedom does the common man have in this? My guess is that most of us have our retirement funds in an employer sponsored plan that limits choices and exchanges. This offers us little choice. In the case of my employer the selections have been chosen by a consulting firm. The only way to solve this is to change or quit current employer and roll funds over to a self directed account, wherein tens of thousands of choices are available. The collective voices all seem to force us to hold, after all it only took 14 years to recover to pre great depression levels, not bad is it?

It is time for a change. I want all employer sponsored plans to offer a brokerage account option. It is my money, let me do with it as I wish.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Stock Newsletters

IBD today has an article about a service from ZepInvest, they resell investment newsletter info. Pay them $600, get access to 85 newsletters. They offer some time for free as do many. What do you think of this?

TMI! If I do not have a game plan with how I am going to trade, how the flip will I come up with anything worthwhile reading over 85 newsletters? Too much data to sort through.

Having said that, I do think that I have learned from looking at some services and think I will share my thoughts on what I have seen.

Motley Fool book was one of my first, NFLX trade came from them. Good tips, good community, poor timing of things as they relate to technical analysis. My guess is they have some winners like everyone. I do not think I ever paid them.

Dan Zanger: perhaps a great trader. 4 nights a week get email of pics with analysis of them and the general market. Includes a chat room real time with hundreds of others. I have twice subscribed for long periods. Suggested reading resources are top notch. Current market not good. Tough to tell if there is any front running, can't judge performance of traders in chat. I finally stopped this one the 2nd time realizing that it was still too much info for me, I wanted to trade and took too many on the fly. Give this one a whirl for free newsletter, then decide for yourself.

Breakout watch. Similar to above in service, with real time email alerts (TMI again). Perhaps some good picks, generally thin issues. Sign up for this one once and you will get weekly commentary sent on the weekend.

I currently get Gilmo report. He wrote short sale book for IBD, used to work for them. I think he managed some money on his own. Cheaper than Zanger, no real time interference, much better market commentary, tells you what he owns from current newsletter. You have to go to his site to pick up info which is released just twice a week. For now more my pace.

I also get the IBD paper, follow big picture like a nut. Overall I think that the winning trades from advisory services made me a lazy inefficient overconfident trader.

Friday, February 20, 2009

What I've been doing with money

In a way this is a movie review post. Watch the movie Kenny, great humor. I got it through netflix. Interesting story on the origin of the word shit. Kenny says it stands for how they would try and move some excrement on the high seas "Store High In Transit" is how the boxes were marked. The financial markets have been turbulent worthy of storing nest eggs high also.

My first trade as an adult was for a 30% return on netflix. I keep this one on my long watchlist. A fundamental and new story is there, numbers are good, demand has been good, sponsorship good. The only problem is overall market direction. Anything that has tried to lead in the past months has fallen, like education stocks this week. If it moves in a good market, especially above 40.9 old high, I might be a buyer.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Spy chart



THis is the chart mentioned in previous post

Talking Heads

Everyone and anyone that offers financial advice, writes a column, talks on TV, or sells some service ought to have full disclosure statements that detail relationships to financial things and most important, show the rates of returns of any investment vehicles they are involved in.

This past weekend the local paper had an article by a finance guy. He talked the same old mess heard for weeks if not longer now as to how now was the time to be buying stocks. NPR also had some people on saying the same thing.

This as the market tanked about 4% yesterday. Fine advice indeed.

I have followed the markets and my money for over two years now. I have come to understand the big picture a clearer now. The market and the economy moves in cycles. We are currently in a period of contraction and it is not a time to be owning much in the way of stocks or mutual funds. What money I have control over is in cash or cash equivalents awaiting a new bull market.

Only price pays. Nothing else. Ignore the talking idiots, it does not matter what the say. Some simple math can show how to see long term view of the market. Take a look at the chart. Note that the long term 200 day average is around 110 right now and the shorter term averages are much less, this means bad market. Stay away from stocks.



I am saving as much money as I can. 401K contributions, Roth IRA are all maxed out. I'll save more money in non retirement accounts also. But I will wait for this mess to change. I hope you can do the same.