Sunday, December 27, 2009
I am already excited for end of year evaluation and goal setting. With a quick look back I have failed many of the goals I set for 2009. More later...
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
I am increasingly aware that guys like Tim Sykes that trade very differently than other market participants have an edge in the trading world.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
So my big picks shorty wise, similar to the above are: CAAS and TSTC. MELI perhaps in a bit.
Longs to watch for:
CGA BPI watch the group TNDM logical but risky LIFE watch for emrbryo/stemcell interest to perk this EJ on a 50 day recovery play CPTS-great #s, maybe bottom of cup AMSC for flat base emergence XOMA puzzles but interests me CYOU has nice volume dryup
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
401k/annuity accounts: At or near all time highs, helped by regular contributions and sitting on my hands. Top balances are in Emerging markets and real estate, worst balance in financials. Good job.
Trading: Four accounts, mixed performance. Four round trips, half profitable. Worthless option expired, holding worthless aaple option, long NFLX in all accounts, only in one is it at a profit. Account changes: -6.9, +5.9, +.5, -2.4%. Overall +.4%.
Discussion: Profitable trades were in CNO twice, once for a loss. Overall I am happy with those, did not bother looking at the dates. GMCR took a small loss ignoring the bullishness in the news and marketing. I believe in the stock but not working out well, still on radar. NFLX is a tougher judgement call, perhaps I am in it too much to be objective. I regret being so large into the position, I am all in. This is counter to position sizing limits designed to help me. The recent weakness in this stock looks to me like it keeps trying to shakeout folks with news on Dubai and downgrades by other firms. One firm a few weeks ago raised target price to 72 or such. I was really looking for it to go to $65 easy (height of recent flagpole move). The past three days with moves down but closes near the high strike me as bullish. If and when I get out of NFLX I need to be more careful with my greed, tone down exposure to any one issue.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
For traders, a worthy read to recognize that the road to hell might be paved with your own good intentions.
For myself, the things I think about I tend to work towards. I am working on my three million!
I was coming home from my parents Saturday and passed by a couple of guys doing something interesting behind a hedgerow. We turned around and met a very interesting man in the midst of grinding sugar cane that he grew. His press is a Goldens from 1909, converted to run on an engine instead of the four legged power source it originally had. He ground a few stalks in front of us, then gave a simple tour of how the stalks were harvested. He then helped us cut a piece to eat, it was delicious and juicy, nothing like the dried up stuff I see irregularly at the grocers. He gave us a very heavy 3-4 foot section of Jamaican Blue Ribbon so we could enjoy it at home, instead of that we planted it. Perhaps in the future we will make some of our own molasses.
I went back and saw him again today, he estimated 15 gallon of juice harvest and he was boiling it down to use in BBQ sauce and pancake syrup. He hopes to grow several acres of the stuff in the future.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Here is the thing with Dubai: After catching overseas market action and news at work, I come home and tell my wife about the bloodletting going on. It came as no surprise to her. She said she has been reading about problems in Dubai for quite a while. So if someone that does not follow the market knew about issues, the big money likely knew also.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
It is also difficult to solely be a systematic trader. A systematic trader has discipline to trade using fairly firm rules for entry and exit, I did okay with it. A discretionary trader makes judgements on what to trade. I expect I will end up blending these two in some fashion. What I fear is constantly changing what I do. Going with whims and emotions is a poor way to go about this.
I have an internal debate going on with regards to stocks vs ETFs. I have had my arse handed to me time after time with stocks in this market but they can offer the best chance of good exponential growth. They also suffer big drops when I buy them (perhaps at the wrong time?). ETFs cut back on this some but suffer just as much as the overall markets.
So I am dipping my toes back into stocks, trying to be a little smarter about buying them. Most of what I have owned has come back above my buy prices: GMCR NFLX AAPL CNO BIDU. I've have been a weak holder. Smarter buying for me is now not chasing price up, if my IBD emotional training has me wanting to buy, maybe now I just put it on my watch list and buy when "they" sell in a panic. If I'd have kept BIDU from when I had it I'd have a 20% gain right now. One of things I will do is concentrate on the stocks that have the best potential for monster runs.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
2. Reading the Miller blog and reflecting on trading public expectations and emotions have me wanting a new book to be written. A lot of the moves in the market are based upon emotional reactions of those involved, I'd like to have an increased awareness of those in the market. An awareness of this is what could set apart traders from the crowd.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
I've only made it through two months of the blog, good stuff.
Pullback in EWZ now at 75.8 seems buyable.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Bollinger band comments in last post hinted that perhaps we were near the bottom of the bands with good low risk entry. The next trading day SPY closed 104.32, now above 109! Note to self! With the modest volatility we've had of late, it looks like exiting near high of bands and buying at bottom would have made nice money.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Saturday, October 31, 2009
I do not want to panic with regards to my 401K and annuity accts so have not looked at them. I got in them long ago, hold nice profits, and want to remain disciplined with regards to buying and selling them. I am looking at 50/200 day moving averages with regards to entry and exits. I do not think we have finished the overall trend up and do not think we will crash and burn to the downside. Mid term we be in limbo!
I see more money to be made short.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
A few days ago I printed out a list of stocks in the IBD Energy Other group. Looking through them, I see more weakness in solar than expected. For example, it is easy to compare the ETFs TAN vs KOL. Coal is stronger than solar, solar in a bit of a wedge that needs to resolve. There are also a number of solar companies trading below 200 day average, I might stop looking at JASO as much. Compare SOL to where JASO could go from here, right inverse shoulder could easily break.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
I have done much more work on looking at scans. I try to follow high volume moves up, more of these are failing than working out. I look for them to consolidate after big move and then resume the move, that is what is failing. Tough to put that to a statistical advantage without short selling. Speaking of this, RODM looks like just such a sell but volume patterns dont quite say it yet. Stock wise, I continue to follow JASO for a move, has NEW leaders, I see it is in a 4th low volume pullback, each of the previous 3 were tradeable. Long I am watching ASIA TSRA PLD ARST SGMO EXXI.
ETFs. I have been looking at these as low volatility plays, not gonna easily lose 20% in a fast move. Also considering them in turtle sense, a way to play commodity and sector moves, buy new 4 week high, sell at 2 week low. Recent highs that seem to be holding recent breakouts are JJC USO DBC UGA VEU EWH EWS KOL SLX IAI MXI (which has been volatile of late). If market pulls back, tough to get them here, but they seem to bounce well off of shorter term averages. Market panics have been short term of late, so they might present with good buy in this am after first hour.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Friday, October 16, 2009
By being aware of those around us and their investment philosophies we can learn a lot about the psyche of the public. I find some of this instructive, much of it gives me gratititude. First off, solely due to following the price action of the major indices in relation to moving averages, I only experienced a 12% drawdown in 2008. Few people withdrew their funds, they have certainly not moved them back into the market. THose that have done this stock up on guns and ammo, or have gold hoarded ( I am amazed at how much a friend has). They got out worried about the fiat currency system, listened to the news a lot but really had no disciplined method that told them to get out. They also have no disciplined method to get back in the market. That to me is the biggest fault. They have been missing out on the chance to get filthy rich!
Time magazine cover suggests average 401K is valued around 45K? Work harder, save more, spend less people.
A guy at work yesterday, knowing I am interested in retirement accounts, asked me about borrowing from 401K process. Honestly I have no flippin idea how to do this because it is absolutely stupid. Avoid at all costs.
I talked to a gal married to a guy that trades. When they first met, she bragged how he doubled her account in months. Says he also used to daytrade in a group, made a lot of money at it. For some reason he is working for the hospital full time now, you do the math. I know they got out of the market, have not yet gone back in because he is convinced that the market is going to fall apart. DUDE, we have universal worldwide agreement in this rally! Nobody knows when it will end, but it has been a rally. In my opinion, anyone with decently developed analysis could have made some good money.
My current trading is horribly boring. I miss the thrill of big bucks in and out, the hunt, the highs and lows. But I ended up missing the money worse. Post trade analysis has helped me to change finally and I richer and sleeping better for it.
I'd like to get my coworkers rich, being a nurse is really tough at times, the non financial rewards do not often come. If I could figure out some way to add a 401K gadget tracker I would. Real estate is still okay but AF Europac and a MidCap fund are the current leaders.
I have finished the Curtis Faith Turtle book. Good stuff for basic systems people, good methods for their system which could be adaptable without too much effort into an average Joes trading setup. I most liked taking out of it the fact that those that trade for their ego needs will get quashed. I need to be mindful of this and search for ego satisfaction other ways. So much for bragging.
Its early here, time to get down to research.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
The other issue is the message I believe in and would put forth, it would not sell. I have nothing to offer, my message is not unique or sexy, I offer little unique insight. The advice I would offer is what I would say to any youngster coming up in the world: Work hard, study, save as much as you can. Pay yourself first. Invest in the best you can, dont be too risky with money you can't lose. Follow the major trends, ignore the news, follow the price. Read a lot. Daytrading for pennies is tough, try the long balls to stay around. Trade less.
Monday, October 12, 2009
I've only reviewed a few charts, things look nice. Caught that Dow had new closing high for the year, others are close. Higher volume sure would be nice to confirm but this slow creep sure is good too. Informal sentiment still bearish but more bulls awakening. I have some comfort room in ETF profits but it does not look like I will need them.
Some pigeons completed their first 200 miler, took several days for some, this am I think I see more around.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Monday, October 5, 2009
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Having said that there are some warning signs about in the markets. Japan clearly busted its 50 day and has made a lower low. This might be an omen for what near term direction is or might end up being supremely buyable. I am taking it as caution. Recent ETF trades now in mild loss position without clear sell signals, I'm down like $50 in total. I bought into ILF and EWZ, left BRF alone due to low volume. Odd that INP was down when NBR said India was up, another india etf was up on the day. There is some other weakness in charts of regional ETFs. Long term I am watching some commodity ETFs for entry points in energy plays but they are not there yet.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
I pick up my gun permit today...
My two hands are still bullishly in the air, gotta wonder if those IBDers at the meetup are still short? This thought comes from a desire to be right, rich, and others wrong. Bad...
I got my second ever comments on the blog. Once again it has nothing to do with my blog, my thoughts, my great trading or wisdom. Instead it seems to be someone that wants to spread some dirt. I do not care to learn the dirt on anyone, it will not help me. I view myself as an ever increasing knowledgeable trader with incredible room to grow. I am capable of the best and worst in the market and have done both. I have listened to others, paid others. But the key is that I am responsible for my money, my trades, my decisions. As far as the past, other than it being instructrive to reflect and change, I prefer to focus on what I can do for me, not what I can do to hurt another.
"The Art of Making Money": A great easy read, not about the market. I read this one on the beach while watching all kinds of fisherman. These guys really reminded me of a bunch of traders in so many ways. Big and little poles, over anxious for small nibbles or normal gyrations, perhaps they missed the real catches due to too much activity.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
What a collective mass of buyers and sellers the IBD crowd must make.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
On the other hand, if one were to insist on calling healthcare a right, please examine what these rights demand. For all of these, wars have been fought with many lives lost. Education has been required for proper use of the pen, weapon, and to select with the lever. These are responsibilities. If you want to own a handgun, you must get a permit. If you want to hunt you must take a safety class. If you want to vote you must meet criteria. If you want to get your free speech out to the public you must get a job, carry a sign, or be a better blogger. What responsibilities will be required for the right to healthcare?
Having a "right" to healthcare is one thing. But does the providing party have a responsibility to provide? Can we legislate the bankruptcy of our system? Are we going to eliminate the profit motive, the capitalistic self preservation that drives our innovation? Will the brightest and the best leave this industry in search of greener pastures?
If the public, with perhaps imperfect knowledge, wants the system to change then perhaps we should change the system. But lets call a duck a duck and stop calling it a right, call it what we want. But be cautious of that which can't be known until we get there.
ETF (IYR DGS EWT INP THD XSD EWM RSX)positions are all +0 to 4% in the short time I've had them. This brings 2 accounts up maybe 5%, two others down a bunch still. Other retirement accounts in mutual fund style investing are up 29, 33, and now 49%! I expect the ETFs to treat me well in coming months. Not as exciting but more profitable.
What is happening right now: major market indexes continue hitting new highs with good breadth, this is bullish!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
I've just finished Tom Lydon's "The ETF Trend Following Playbook". Save the money if you understand moving averages to guide trading and can find a full list of ETFs that are tradeable. Read the book if you want to learn more about ETFs and what is available. It is a playbook in that it teaches what can be traded, general long term guidelines to follow to do so well. It lacks a coach in that it does not offer specific how to guide. I might be biased by experience in that much if not all that was written was familiar to me. My vote: save the money, wait for library. I have not looked at his website to comment on that, more of value might be there.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
I have just a few stocks right now. The video by mail company had been looking good. I bought near the bottom of a pattern/channel/trendline when it was down, it then moved lower. Just a few days ago I got an email suggesting its better days have passed by. I have been printing charts of stocks I think could be big winners, maybe one a month. Well this stock had shown greatly increasing percent ownership by funds, and a larger number of funds owning it each month, including a chart I looked at just a few days ago. Well after the close last night I saw that these numbers are now SIGNIFICANTLY LESS, making it look like funds are getting out of this. So I have lost a lot of confidence in the stock. The close of yesterday makes it look like it will go up a bit this am, I think I will look to sell.
I am hurting in an oversubscribed issue novavax, sold half yesterday. The company story is great for the long term, I might sit with the rest for a bit. CNO has done well but I am changing how I do this.
I am more and more comfortable with the idea of ETF investing. Yes AIG, C, CNO are going to do well long term. But the pain of seeing account values go down is really incredible prior to some of the moves. In a way, I see that I will have a future with greater control over my finances when I quit work and have control over 401Ks. I need to trade bigger trends in less volatile issues. A mutual fund could work out well except one has to take end of day pricing. ETFs allow trades at the market at the time of the order while performing similar to a fund. I have lost a lot of benefit of compounding by overtrading. If I'd have traded more big picture moves like my 401Ks I would surely be a year closer to quitting work.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
I do not have great news programs to listen to but I follow a few things on the net and read a fair amount. People are scared, do not trust the new bull. I find this to be true for amateurs and pros alike. Welcome to the wall of worry.
I bought into pullbacks of some new high (and high relative strength) generally foreign ETFs and one stock with defined risk exit points. If they pullback I expect they will not make lower lows.
On the 401K review, real estate is the bomb! Something like 15% growth in two months! Large cumbersome US based funds severely lag all other stock funds so I will likely close out that which is invested with Ferdinand and move into the others that are doing better by several percentage points. Beyond that, the relative performance of international issues seems to be better but not as much so of late. Value, small cap, mid cap have all had decent moves. I discovered IBD lets me graph these funds vs an index all on the same page and adjust the viewable date so I can see what has done better for given time frames. A great feature for just a few hundred bucks a year. The charts at the Ferdinand sight are more awkward to use.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
I take this fear as a good dose of rational market maturity all too hardly earned.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Monday, August 31, 2009
I have no idea what direction the market is going. But we were beaten down so bad for so long that I suspect those that had to sell sold and that nobody is left that has to sell.
I cancelled my remaining newsletter from Gilmo but have paid thru November, gonna grab the stick on my own again. I've traded better of late that way.
I remember a biblical story of a man that had a demon cast out only to attract seven more demons. I view the search for trading truths somewhat similarly in that in looking for the holy grail one opens oneself up to partial or half truths (demons). It just takes a lot of time and perspective to figure this out some. You gotta be careful looking for something as it might just be found.
Save your money, pay yourself first, manage risk so the benefits of compound interest can work for you.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
I have to use internet explorer for IBD graphs. I use Mozilla Firefox for all else, Thunderbird for email. I try to turn all auto updates off, do not want things screwing up my day. If I see computer start slowing down, I shut down everything except my trading platform. I might also open the task manager to look at processes running and using lots of memory or whatever. Then I shut them down if I can tell what they are.
I regularly scan with Norton and the following:
I will also run whatever preloaded clean your computer up stuff their is with the computer and more so the application that come with Norton. I'll also look at all programs installed and get rid of what I do not use or want. Extra programs really bog things down.
Stay away from net filth!
If trading speed is important, less is best.
I've received a few calls and heard some stories about ground bees that gave folks a run for their money. I always assumed these were a small yellow jacket kind of bee until a few days ago when I was weedeating near the house. I came across this nest, at first I thought that it was just a couple but it ended up being more like hundreds. The three stings I got hurt like heck.
If you click on the title of this post you ought o go to a video that answers this question for me that was brought forward to the original turtles. I did this at a time in my life that I was expressing little personal power, had barely a nickel to my name, no real education, and I allowed others to do my thinking for me. Since that time, or as part of the whole process of changing my life, many of those things have changed and I am a different person.
Fear does not bind me into inaction.
Friday, August 21, 2009
So I determined that I would change some stuff with how I invest, focus on ETFs that allow swing trading without easy 10-20% losses the way some IBD "leading" stocks have done at so called technical breakout points. I still need to get back to getting this list together, formulate how I will track them, and then determine entry and exits.
Having said that, chance favors the prepared mind. I've recovered some with some decent trades off the bottoms in two stocks whose charts I'll try and post here. CNO entry was unexpected but the action a few days ago screamed it was ready to go higher. Story wise I suspect that it is not as oversold as AIG but should see some significant upside action in coming years. I traded for some nice profit in this one already. C is a similar story, I've had it for a short while, now with a cushion to consider being an investor. Both of these stocks were hit poorly by market selloff of late. I think moneys here could be doubled in near term with some market magic.
Reflecting further on IBD complaints, I think the poor performance of this style for now is really an indication of market conditions being not too hot near term. Rubber band theory working well, things coming more to neutral after being stretched too far in odd directions. Also, banking and insurance are highly rated groups in IBD but likely have too much fear associated with them to be amateur subscribed.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Sunday, August 9, 2009
The stocks I am in vary a bit. One has a lot of industry attention as a leader and might go further. It seems like some folks are selling it as it has moved to new 52 week highs this past week. Another is one I have visited a few times before and vomited all over the place, back in at new highs on volume, some folks are saying it has bad pattern. After I bought it tanked and has hurt my best performing trading account seriously. Two others do not meet normal criteria that I look for, but seem to be moving up a lot on potential. If swine flu turns out to be a big problem it might have me rolling in mud like a happy pig. I traded CNO for nice short term gain. It looks like it could be a buy and hold issue.
We canned some tomatoes, apple saucce this weekend. I've got the best and loving spouse in the world. I am grateful for these things.
I need to put in more footwork!
Sunday, July 26, 2009
This is a tough business to be in. I need to do much more on a daily basis. I need to sharpen my mission statement. I am starting to scan for more stocks in industries that could grow well, many have had giant moves with some tells weeks before the move. Some of these are off the radar issues, never make a net mention or IBD until long after the move has begun. I want to follow these better.
I need a bigger monitor for longer quote screens. Gotta bank some buck to get it. I think screen real estate would be better reward than a chair.
I did some things very well this week. I remember the pasta rally in AIPC, seemed to be a great winner in a new bull market but I sat on the sidelines and made no money off of it. The rally seemed to be helped by addition of the company to some index, making lots of volume flow into the stock. I was befuddled at the time. Recently RHT was announced as replacing some issue in the SP 500, gapped open big and has held. I figured itwould go higher, bought a call on 7/20, sold on 7/24 near the high of the day, made a dollar for each five at risk. It might go more but I've lost a lot of money on calls when I did not take the quick profit.
The other trade I executed well was one that just kind of fell in my lap. Maybe not. I've been following GMCR as potential leader for quite a while, have traded in it once pre split, price action scared me out. Alarms went off again on 7/20 as it went higher. I'd just sold REIT HTS thinking that market strength was turning more in favor of strong stocks. I bought into GMCR on what I view as day of breakout and am sitting on a profit now in one account.
I was going to go outside to mow but sat down to review charts. I have a notebook I keep some records in, took a look at overall performance YTD of 10.2%, bulk of gains in retirement accts, bulk of losses in active trading accounts. If this keeps up I might have to start being a very passive investor in the overall style of my 401Ks. I'd be so much further ahead if I'd done that from the beginning. If I decide to go that route it will be a tough pill to swallow.
I have the sheet of paper I kept records on from January 5th, 2009. I was following the range of the Dow and SP and it looks like I was actively following NFLX(31.94-42.20 now), FRPT Feb $5 calls ( made money from there and then blew up) and VISN (7.3 then, 6.7 now-I am still following this range bound great fundy stock). At the bottom of the paper are stocks I made a note to start following. Prices are the high of the day for 1/5 and closing price of issue this past Friday
SXCI 19.27 29.61
MDRX 10.2 16.44
APWR 5.49 10.78
Clearly I can pick some winners to follow. I've traded in NFLX, VISN, and APWR since then, done with APWR. Today I am looking more in depth with my lack of trading these other issues, and reminding myself that pending some horrible breakdown in the stock, perhaps holding them longer without the bouncing in and out is the way to go.
Looking at charts, BIDU is the only one that seems to have not clearly given a sell signal during these moves.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
2. The market continues to amaze many. For the most part I have stayed long the same issues for quite a while. I got too extended with losing option positions in SNDA and STAR. STAR then broke out of nice consolidation area, SNDA might do the same. I suspect I bought as they went to new high, then had to sit thru pain. Option expiry ahead had me get lighter. Correction, I was not in SNDA, rather in SYNA which is broke big for now, still on the watch list...
3. After such a big Wednesday, it is a lot easier to say that I am still bullish. I was sleeping well with what I had. I bought a stock on new high b/o on volume and sat on it thru 20% loss, now coming back. But it is a newer issue that is more volatile. My buy on it was good, my analysis was good, it just wasnt continuing higher. I feel my buys and sells have been much less emotional, much more so rules and analysis based. It feels good, if it continues I'll get somebig winners.
4. Market seemed to pop nicely when breadth indicators were pretty bad, must have been an oversold thing in a bull market!
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Saturday, June 27, 2009
The McClellan family of indicators gets a lot of mention there and I have seen them elsewhere. I've not seen all of these as an option on sites I've used before so I went to their site: http://www.mcoscillator.com/
It looks like too much information to me. In particular I note them calling for bullish moves in June 08 and Oct 08 that clearly did not materialize.
I wise man once wrote to me that "Only price pays".
Friday, June 26, 2009
I am perusing the recent posts in some online forums and find myself wanting to unleash a fly rant...
I see comments like "my gut", "I feel", "I think". Folks have ideas about the market that I disagree with based upon recent market action and TA 101.
At the top of the bull market, disbelievers like myself lost serious chump change, continuing to ignore market action based upon beliefs and listening to too many glowing whirly boxes.I have not participated in the bulk of the move off the lows, am kicking myself and trying to learn what happened, why I missed it, how I can note it next time. It don't matter what I believe/think/feel, what happened is BOOM! If I'd have caught some greater portion of that move with some amazing trading vehicles out there my life would be forever changed in financial term.
I like having all the mkt noise off.
From a technical analysis standpoint when viewing the SP500 chart, we had a low of 878.94 on 5/15. Our most recent low did not hit that. This can be viewed as a higher low. Our recent high of 956.23 is higher than previous high of 930.17. From what I've read this is bullish or how an uptrend works. Going down below 878 breaks this.
The fed recently began the process of closing 2 manners in which they could help lend money to big folks. I like this.
I am reading a book on market indicators and hope to add a few of these to my analysis of the markets.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Observing others at work, in trading rooms and forums, I often suspect that people ask the wrong questions in life and trading. By this I mean they are looking too small, too little, not dreaming enough. Too many just want to get by, find an easy way, be spoon fed. While I know that my dreams and hopes are large, I wonder if seeing these characteristics in others is really just a reflection of myself.
I want to focus on the big things with big questions. What questions do I need to be asking for success in life and trading? I believe that asking the right questions leads us closer to the answer.
Monday, June 15, 2009
GMCR-hot stock. I only had options, instead of over $3 each I got like 20 cents, likely only paid for the trade. TNDM and LFT action had me scared, also got out Friday. This might still be okay to watch.
APWR-the one true winner, got maybe 20% on it in my wifes Roth, nice to have her ahead of my Roth for a change. This account now profitable YTD. Leaders action and my fear had me sell despite being a winner, earnings out 6/16, might be best to sit out earnings. I am continuing to follow and will by this one again if price and volume suggest it to me.
I'm glad I sold these and did not get ill today. I do not think this is a big break in market, leaving everything else where it is, kinda sticking with rules based trading.
My new young birds took first flight yesterday!
Thursday, June 4, 2009
I am grateful I've had things to do the past couple of days and have not spent the entire day in front of computer. My emotions have been running high. I am not sure what it means. But in the same manner that I was calm when some issues were down and slept well, I want the same to be true when stocks are doing well. Even when I was up >80% in late 2007 I was still in and out of the market a lot. If I'd just held some of the leaders I'd have done even better. While I love watching the bells and whistles all day long, I think I'd be better off fully engaged in life and watch things like Darvas.
Then again, I'd have to have the monitor on with full volume so my spouse could grab me when an alert popped!
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
401K 1: 11.8% YTD (all in)
401k 2: 7% (2/3 in)
annuity: 26% YTD
cash: Under water but improved
Goals at start of year were to double the last three accounts by year end.
Monday, June 1, 2009
2. General Motors shows their is no safe stock, no blue chip buy and hold. Evolve or else.
3. I've taken to looking at IBD newspaper graphs a little different. On page B1 of the Monday June 1, 2009 I am impressed with stocks number 4 and number 2 as evidenced by quick scans of the volume patterns. They were nothing and now are huge. We will see how this turns out, I own one of them and am watching the other.
4. Overseas indices are off the hook this am! MOMO is higher! Nobody is selling any longer. For the week ahead I am only watching earnings on SNDA 6/3. My yahoo economic calendar is much longer than normal, we shall see.
5. Click on post title (I think) for interesting link to trader site. Periodic updates and neat rules for uptrend observation. I've been following the new high new low list for a while in IBD and it has been a while since lows were greater than highs.
6. EBAY is tough to use and they continue to make it tougher, also I've heard of unhappy bulk sellers. I think it could go the way of AOL and be nearly useless. AOL always tried to rip me off at cancellation time, such crooked practices can't be sustainable.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
I am surprised at the disbelief that abounds. I'd ask those that don't believe when they would change their minds. I suspect they will be late comers to the party as they are waiting for news to be better. As for me, I am willing to climb the wall of worry (and I am sleeping well at night).
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Market moves down and poor recent returns had me singing the blues. One thought is to quit this all. The other is to focus on what great traders would do and then do it. Fake it until I make it. So today I look at lots of charts to see what is going on.
I've done this before, the positive thing with this funk is relative shortness, just a few days.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
I find myself wanting to pay an advisor to spoon feed me. I know what to do, just need to do it.
If it does not go parabolic it should set up for a bit prior to going higher much. NFLX has consolidated on lower volume and has greater chance. However, it was bad trade entry for me, bad emotion, not planned.
Bad news for banks and they up. Trade charts not news. Nibbled UYG.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
One of the things I think about doing is a mission statement or business plan. One of the things I would have to address is how I want to make money in the market. Do I want to buy and hold in good market, or do I want to try and focus on moving in and out of the leaders only when the charts suggest they are ready for a move?
Along those lines I went long NFLX with unsettled funds. It has pulled back from 50 to near 45 now, looks like it chased folks out with a spurt to 42 and should hold 44 at this juncture. Volume low for the day, I expect this might be a few days early for a big move.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
I see NFLX has been on the map big. I have not traded this one of late but I continue to like its prospects. It looks like a hold or avoid for now, perhaps wait for more tree shaking to finish up. One of the things on my to do list is to get a list of what are good buy points in leading stocks, this one sure bounced nice near the 50 day average.
I was stupid recently with some SAY, lost very little, holding $90 worth of calls on it for July 2.5. Odds figure further decline at this point.
I own one stock in several trading accounts. It has an okay story, not quite on public radar, good numbers, good price movement. I aim to hold it for good market moves. It is tempting to sell it for my 10-11% gain that I have thus far as I am back to start of year account balances. But above my trading area I keep charts of big winners I have owned before that I sold out of prior to end of run, basically being chicken shit with poor rules. The current charts up are FSLR, POT, and ISRG. ISRG was one that I left a lot of money on the table with the puts I had after market turned down. I just had very little big market perspective at the time and allowed my $20 put to go to 100 in a week...
I hate the action of the market indices action yesterday. I suspect lots of wind lost from the sails. Early candles line up to say if we have a bad day, or even a slightly bad day that turn of market direction could be coming next week. That would be good for eyeing ideal market entry!!! QQQQ near its 200 day average, it would be nice to see that pierced. My buy call for QLD at 30 with 20 stop looks rich. Shoot from the hip entry would be 32.
I am rereading Weinstein classic.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Now what two sectors are amongst those we should be most cautious of? Would financials and/or real estate be on that list? These are the two that have performed the best! It was a bit of a speculative play, not much that said they were strong, but they are clearly doing better.
It is interesting to see the disagreement in the market. It is interesting to sense some personal growth as I hold trades longer, move in the market during time of fear, and see some previously well respected net resources be different than I.
I was working my day job on the 15th, but the candles sure screamed buy netflix around 3 pm. What a profit it could have been.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Monday, April 13, 2009
I'd like to ask myself WWDD? What would Darvas do? He would have been away from the market, ignoring intraday price action, might have even had this one on margin. I suspect he would watch this one for a pullback to $45 or even the 50 day average. For now it really looks like a great winner of the future. Installed on LG tvs and now video games. Increasing stock of bluray also.
NFLX lesson is helping me to hold onto another leading stock that is a little more sluggish, not as much in the public eye, but showing great fundamentals and price action-constructive pullback now.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
I cut back on my queen order, down to 5. I'd only had 9 okay hives alive and unable to buy frames of brood with ease. They are sitting in the kitchen for now, need to get them out to the splits I made yesterday. What you are seeing here is a 3 hole cage, right side has a fondant candy plug that all the bees will eat through when I remove the cork covering the end. The left side has a cork to keep the bees in, I will pull the cork out if queen is not released in 3 days (never had to do it). The queen has her head aimed for 12 oclock, tail towards 6 oclock. It can be seen here that she is larger than the rest, with a little food and attention her abdomen does get larger. These are the cordovan italians from CF Koehnen, a favorite of mine. CLICK IMAGE FOR DETAILS
Via yahoo finance this am I see a story of Australia building out broadband network to increase traffic speeds 100x. I wish the US had more of this. I understand some of the plans for utility buildouts, but this does not really change things much for the average Joe.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
I'm out of NFLX, should have walked away from computer and held...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Recently it has become a paid site. Figuring it was something of great value after reading the sales pitch, I emailed the owner requesting info as to how he has done. After all it is the acid test of trading (and why one should use caution in following me). Keep in mind that he interviewed a guy that publicly recorded 2008 gains in excess of one million. I salute this guy for being honest in his reply. You be the judge of the value of the knowledge and interviews at the site. Reply follows:
Thanks for the note. I'm probably a better interviewer than a trader, but I
shoot for a conservative $500 a week with my trading and have been fairly
steady that way for a year. My issue, and I hope to figure it out by
talking with these traders myself, is that every time I start to increase my
position size to make that $500 go to $2,000 or $3,000 per week, I don't
seem to have the same success.
So I'm on a trading journey just as everyone else is. Hope that helps.
All the best,
Tim Bourquin, Co-Founder, Ideas For Download
27285 Las Ramblas Ste 235 | Mission Viejo, CA 92691
Thursday, March 26, 2009
1. To avoid being a victim of fraud from investment advisors they should not be the ones in charge of your money. Have a money manager and an advisor.
2. When watching TV such as PBS' Nightly Business Report it is interesting to note how those on the show have to make minimum disclosures regarding when they own what they talk about. Forbes has many columnists that "suggest" several trading vehicles in each publication yet I saw nary a disclosure. Part of the financial system overhaul needs to include much greater regulation of such things. I want dates, prices, relationships etc... In other words Forbes aint getting none of my money.
The market has been amazing me in many ways. I fear I am missing out on a great new bull market, this stirs my greed to the point I consider some bad decisions. I've cleared my head a little with some comfortable time away from the bright lights. Yesterday and today I made a few hundred with two quick trades going long QID after it gapped opened lower. NFLX stays strong, I'll look to buy if it can pull back more Friday. This risks holding over the weekend after such a great run but I think the up days on 1/27 and 2/23 on massive volume show strong buying by the big guys. I bought some STAR today and will hold it for a bit. It showed up on my screening last night, numbers are good, 50 DMA is near 15 and is sloped up. RS and group is good. The big money to be made is with the 401K account, still in cash. SMA 50 on SPY still sloped down and short term averages still less than the 200 day average. SPY is peaking above trends lines in following, more to be revealed. Click on chart image for full size.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
I do not understand much of what is being done with regard to the real stimulus and bailouts. The government in my view is wasting money, throwing good after bad. The autos are much cheaper than when the US bought in via loans. Th banks are significantly less than when they were first kept open. And AIG is another. Programs to create jobs seem to be more along the lines of temporary fixes rather than programs to help. I guess there is likely something to be said for teachers, policeman, and bridges but giving them money for jobs is not favoring growth. We need to increase incentives for entrepeneurs to start new business and to encourage profitable businesses to expand. That is how this will get fixed and it will not be quick. What percent of the bailout is designated along these means?
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
There are 2 major losses when it comes to the market. Lost opportunities and lost capital. I am willing to pass on some chancey situations to preserve money.
The great thing about the market is that it always does come back and that demand for stocks will return. One just has to wait it out while raising more cash for the big paychecks of the future.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
I've kept bees for maybe 8 years now. Last year I got real lazy, my back was sore, and I was following the market a lot more. I sold the bulk of my hives and kept some. More than 50% of what I had alive has died. Overall my low chemical methods have had 50% winter kill but this winter it was likely more from a lazy beekeeper not feeding enough. I've got maybe 10 hives alive now. I do not want to get large again but would prefer to grow some as able and sell off some hives each year to sell off what equipment I have (enough for 100). Just feeding the bees today my back is quite sore, lifting patients at work does not trouble me this much. So I plan to chronicle my casual reexpansion here. The following pic is from on of the hives today. In general I am happy with what is alive now.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
I have some beliefs regarding fundamentals. There are too many unknowns. Deleveraging of these new banks (trading firms that used to be like 30:1 and now might have 10:1 limit) might still be going on. I have no idea about the "banks gotta lend money" again story but it sounds like bunk to me. I do not know anyone trying to borrow that has been refused. Maybe this is just about loaning money to the Circuit Citys of the world to prop them up? Hiring has not started. Capital resources are being deployed absent free market ideals, this will slow recovery. While this is not well written, there is too much that is bad for this to be a time to enter the market.
What if we have seen the bottom? Picture an army about to battle hand to hand. Do you want to be the first one charging? Not me but neither do I want to be last. The first might get all the glory or cash, but they are more likely to be slaughtered.
How can we know it is safe to enter? I will look for several things. IBD should call rally mode. Market should start moving higher and make higher highs. Large volume should come in. There should be solid market leadership (this is something I have concerns about properly spotting). And the shorter term averages should be trading above the longer term ones. More on this here: http://tiny.pl/bmb7
Sunday, February 22, 2009
The deleveraging process appears to continue helped out by Geithner imprecision, election year market cycle, and horrible fundamentals. And yet still the message to buy now, hold onto your mutual funds message remains. They are all wrong.
What freedom does the common man have in this? My guess is that most of us have our retirement funds in an employer sponsored plan that limits choices and exchanges. This offers us little choice. In the case of my employer the selections have been chosen by a consulting firm. The only way to solve this is to change or quit current employer and roll funds over to a self directed account, wherein tens of thousands of choices are available. The collective voices all seem to force us to hold, after all it only took 14 years to recover to pre great depression levels, not bad is it?
It is time for a change. I want all employer sponsored plans to offer a brokerage account option. It is my money, let me do with it as I wish.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
TMI! If I do not have a game plan with how I am going to trade, how the flip will I come up with anything worthwhile reading over 85 newsletters? Too much data to sort through.
Having said that, I do think that I have learned from looking at some services and think I will share my thoughts on what I have seen.
Motley Fool book was one of my first, NFLX trade came from them. Good tips, good community, poor timing of things as they relate to technical analysis. My guess is they have some winners like everyone. I do not think I ever paid them.
Dan Zanger: perhaps a great trader. 4 nights a week get email of pics with analysis of them and the general market. Includes a chat room real time with hundreds of others. I have twice subscribed for long periods. Suggested reading resources are top notch. Current market not good. Tough to tell if there is any front running, can't judge performance of traders in chat. I finally stopped this one the 2nd time realizing that it was still too much info for me, I wanted to trade and took too many on the fly. Give this one a whirl for free newsletter, then decide for yourself.
Breakout watch. Similar to above in service, with real time email alerts (TMI again). Perhaps some good picks, generally thin issues. Sign up for this one once and you will get weekly commentary sent on the weekend.
I currently get Gilmo report. He wrote short sale book for IBD, used to work for them. I think he managed some money on his own. Cheaper than Zanger, no real time interference, much better market commentary, tells you what he owns from current newsletter. You have to go to his site to pick up info which is released just twice a week. For now more my pace.
I also get the IBD paper, follow big picture like a nut. Overall I think that the winning trades from advisory services made me a lazy inefficient overconfident trader.
Friday, February 20, 2009
My first trade as an adult was for a 30% return on netflix. I keep this one on my long watchlist. A fundamental and new story is there, numbers are good, demand has been good, sponsorship good. The only problem is overall market direction. Anything that has tried to lead in the past months has fallen, like education stocks this week. If it moves in a good market, especially above 40.9 old high, I might be a buyer.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
This past weekend the local paper had an article by a finance guy. He talked the same old mess heard for weeks if not longer now as to how now was the time to be buying stocks. NPR also had some people on saying the same thing.
This as the market tanked about 4% yesterday. Fine advice indeed.
I have followed the markets and my money for over two years now. I have come to understand the big picture a clearer now. The market and the economy moves in cycles. We are currently in a period of contraction and it is not a time to be owning much in the way of stocks or mutual funds. What money I have control over is in cash or cash equivalents awaiting a new bull market.
Only price pays. Nothing else. Ignore the talking idiots, it does not matter what the say. Some simple math can show how to see long term view of the market. Take a look at the chart. Note that the long term 200 day average is around 110 right now and the shorter term averages are much less, this means bad market. Stay away from stocks.
I am saving as much money as I can. 401K contributions, Roth IRA are all maxed out. I'll save more money in non retirement accounts also. But I will wait for this mess to change. I hope you can do the same.