It had been trending down a bit, I think the old high was 83.1%, went just below 83%. THis am is shows 83.23%, a new high per nasdaq site. Just amazing. I dont put much weight in these small little changes. More data expected over the next two weeks, perhaps some bigger changes.
Price action seems slow. While I would prefer a buildup in price, it mostly seems to me as a gentle shaking of the tree. Emotions and expectations are high, I have some fear. Selling out would relieve this pressure, I've done that before. I am sleeping well. My spouse is sleeping well.
Phase 3 data for elderly RSV could come any time. I expect it could come before earnings so they get a chance to pound their chests a little. Then perhaps further partnership info though I have no feel for that.
OKAY, how about a little help figuring out future price targets.
Two pharma companies I missed out on owning were ALXN, on my watch list years ago at $25, and JAZZ which a chat room I was in was being touted when around $30. I could not wrap my head around those drugs, nor come up with decent analysis for growth.
When I was really getting on board with TSLA, I again had a tough time figuring out a future price target. I asked for some help here, conversations got real perverted.
If I take a look at ALXN, it has 2B in sales and a 33.5B mkt cap. cap is about 16x sales.
JAZZ has 1B in sales and a 9.45B cap, about 9xsales.
NVAX working on RSV vaccines- published by many to be a 5B market each year.
5B multiplied by the above comps yields mkt cap of 45B-80B. Today it is roughly 1B, closed at $4.6.
So future price target based just on RSV sales could be $207-$368.
Price now should clearly be less based upon risk and time.
What is wrong with my analysis?