Thursday, January 14, 2016

NVAX, the big flush

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Sunday, January 3, 2016


Timeline for blockbuster drug Jakafi
6/8/11  NDA
8/3/11 FDA accepts filing
11/16/11  1st approval, 2nd indication approval comes 12/4/14

This one made some wild moves:
2/11/8 $12.83   11/7/8   1.85, a whopping 86% decline, long recovery until 3/8/10   25 months
4/5/10   14.87    5/3/10   8.5   43% decline, recover 9/20/10    5 months
5/2/11  21.15    11/21/11   11.76  44% decline, recover 4/23/12   11 months

now above $108, a 745% gain since 2008

Bear market brutal but sitting tight can work out.
Options, I've used Leaps before, perhaps better to buy when they have declined 30-40% off a peak.

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I followed this company back when it was trading near $25, kind of kicked myself for not buying in to it.  It is now 190ish.  Regulatory time frame for Solaris:
09/06  submitted for regulatory approval
11/06  FDA granted it priority review
03/07  approved
09/11  approved for an additional indication

Price action:
9/5 7.5      11/5 4.59    38% decline, 1/6 recover    2,400% gain since 9/5, 1.5 years prior to product.
3/6 9.55     5/6 7.45      22%, 11/6 recover
11/6  11.45  3/7 8.78    23%, 3/7 recover
10/7   20.03    3/8  12.32    38%  7/8 recover
It took until 2010 to clear out the $25 range

Lots of volatility in price
Price mostly recovers within a year.
The climb is not really fast, especially at the approval time frame.  Revenues really do matter, take time to recognize.
Price can double in the year or two before approval (double from previous peak even).
Gotta sit tight to be right.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

A potential comparable

Tough to find old charts on this one.  Amgen received approval for Epogen in June 1989.  The share price had a steady albeit bumpy ride up until the approval, thereafter it took a while to grow.  In June 86 the price was about 51 cents, June 87 it was 75 cents, and about $1 when the product came on the market.

In 1992 the price had grown to a high of 9.72.  In Feb of 93 the price dropped as low as 3.97, a 59% drop!  Recovery was long and hard for this one, it took until 1995.

There were further bumps in the road for this one in 1997, when it declined 34% from May to September.  By July of 98 it recovered, and in March of 99 it had doubled.  January 2000 it was $75.

This company now trades in the 160's albeit 30 years past its pre approval stage.  320 times your money.  Good and bad times will come and go for the market, but buying and holding great product companies of the future can work well.

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Friday, January 1, 2016

2015 year in review, reflections, thoughts

First off, and clearly a big deal to not forget, this was the 5th year in a row that my trading has beat the SP500.  Another clear positive was the dollar amount added, perhaps as much as gross income from day jobs.  The SP 500 was down 0.73%, my trading up 13.5%.

The tough thing to ignore reflecting back on 2015 is that a very large portion of my gains evaporated with the market downturn this fall.  I had been up 125%, over a million dollars!  It was a huge year for me in that regard and oh so difficult to think of the losses.  For years I've harbored thoughts of some professional money manager swooping in to hire me for big bucks, something like a hedge fund.  I bet they don't hire people that give back such a large portion of their gains!

Why did this drawdown happen?  Because the premise for trade entries remained, the end point had not been reached.  Because I set up some rules and while I am willing to be flexible and make spur of the moment decisions any decisions would have only reflected emotional trading.  Because I have enough money to live a comfortable life already, have a good job, and my goal is to have "F YOU" kind of money.

ZOES is not so interesting to me any longer.  Other ideas remain front and center as they have for years.

Retirement from normal work life likely awaits us at the end of 2016.

If your trading can't beat the SP500, perhaps just go buy a low cost index fund like a Boglehead and enjoy your life.

Have a good 2016.