Saturday, October 31, 2009

Great month- a review

I have not been diligent about reviewing my performance at month end periods but I was much more disciplined in October and figures show it. My number of trades was way down. I trade with 4 different accounts, I am not sure how to report the number of trades, but suffice to say that there were 10 round trips, some held over from September. I am holding one option that cost me $40, currently a loss. I made a bad trade, unplanned, over emotional in Apple, a good loss. All the other trades were profitable. I am happy with the outcome, but am disappointed with the selling discipline. The 4 accounts were up 7.5, 9.5, 16.7, 5.8%.

I do not want to panic with regards to my 401K and annuity accts so have not looked at them. I got in them long ago, hold nice profits, and want to remain disciplined with regards to buying and selling them. I am looking at 50/200 day moving averages with regards to entry and exits. I do not think we have finished the overall trend up and do not think we will crash and burn to the downside. Mid term we be in limbo!

I see more money to be made short.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009


BIDU came out with good numbers and tanked last night. It also tanked this am premarket. I followed it, bought near the bottom at 349.4, sold shortly into the open for 364.7, I think a 4% profit. It is higher, might go quite a bit higher but not my style to daytrade recently. I need to leave the computer after this high. Watch me hotstep outta here.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Risk vs Reward

Wishy washy

A few days ago I printed out a list of stocks in the IBD Energy Other group. Looking through them, I see more weakness in solar than expected. For example, it is easy to compare the ETFs TAN vs KOL. Coal is stronger than solar, solar in a bit of a wedge that needs to resolve. There are also a number of solar companies trading below 200 day average, I might stop looking at JASO as much. Compare SOL to where JASO could go from here, right inverse shoulder could easily break.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Scans and emotional

First off, yesterday was a bad trading day for me. I broke recent rules, got quite emotional over Apple and might take a hit from it. One bad trade begat some others, mainly just taking profits earlier than planned. This am of course I look like a genius, maybe it was intuition. No joke, I sold out of all trading positions minutes before the fall yesterday except for that falling fruit. I still believe in the trade, blue sky breakout ala Jesse.

I have done much more work on looking at scans. I try to follow high volume moves up, more of these are failing than working out. I look for them to consolidate after big move and then resume the move, that is what is failing. Tough to put that to a statistical advantage without short selling. Speaking of this, RODM looks like just such a sell but volume patterns dont quite say it yet. Stock wise, I continue to follow JASO for a move, has NEW leaders, I see it is in a 4th low volume pullback, each of the previous 3 were tradeable. Long I am watching ASIA TSRA PLD ARST SGMO EXXI.

ETFs. I have been looking at these as low volatility plays, not gonna easily lose 20% in a fast move. Also considering them in turtle sense, a way to play commodity and sector moves, buy new 4 week high, sell at 2 week low. Recent highs that seem to be holding recent breakouts are JJC USO DBC UGA VEU EWH EWS KOL SLX IAI MXI (which has been volatile of late). If market pulls back, tough to get them here, but they seem to bounce well off of shorter term averages. Market panics have been short term of late, so they might present with good buy in this am after first hour.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009


I'm willing to take a 10% hit on this one, bought in. Sold my EWM and RSX to buy. I would have preferred to have kept the 18% gain in RSX longer but AAPL looks too good to me. Many will not believe it for a while.


AAPL is a buy by many standards. This is a bull market, it is in new high range. If you can tolerate a little pain down to 190 and can let it go it is a buy now. The sky is the limit as people start jumping over each other to own this one. I am even looking to get an ipod touch and I am not a techie.

Poor research am

Lots going on this am, selling some chickens, company here, looking into financing for solar PV system on a new garage. I've been sitting on my hands with what I own. I have not done many of my scans but the following interest me now and in the future. QDEL listed with both increasing earnings and sales, that has been a true rarity in IBD. Chart a little sloppy here but could be buyable if it does not sell down. Rapid testing play sounds good in this H1N1 time. STC looks like a ss bear flaglike pattern. I am looking at solar group stocks today, JASO in particular. It has been "rangebound" tight around the 200day, management changed, group neutral but stronger, maybe head shoulder bottom with 3.66 stop. PBS "The Warning" great stuff last night.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Bragging, Ego, Reflection

When my brother in law last visited he asked for stock tip, he did not ask in a very serious manner. His previous visit I'd told him Netflix if it broke above a certain price range, which it did and had since moved up about 30%. He owns Harley, John Deere, and Kroger, every now and then I glance at them and have not been impressed. Well this time I pulled up the chart for Conseco life, CNO. Showed him what I thought was the consolidation around 5, drew a trend line, explained that I thought it was buyable then and there. After the pop it has taken this week, I want to call and brag! I suspect he did not buy any, he is kinda set in his ways. He mentioned waiting for certain price targets to come and then he was going to cash out for CDs.

By being aware of those around us and their investment philosophies we can learn a lot about the psyche of the public. I find some of this instructive, much of it gives me gratititude. First off, solely due to following the price action of the major indices in relation to moving averages, I only experienced a 12% drawdown in 2008. Few people withdrew their funds, they have certainly not moved them back into the market. THose that have done this stock up on guns and ammo, or have gold hoarded ( I am amazed at how much a friend has). They got out worried about the fiat currency system, listened to the news a lot but really had no disciplined method that told them to get out. They also have no disciplined method to get back in the market. That to me is the biggest fault. They have been missing out on the chance to get filthy rich!

Time magazine cover suggests average 401K is valued around 45K? Work harder, save more, spend less people.

A guy at work yesterday, knowing I am interested in retirement accounts, asked me about borrowing from 401K process. Honestly I have no flippin idea how to do this because it is absolutely stupid. Avoid at all costs.

I talked to a gal married to a guy that trades. When they first met, she bragged how he doubled her account in months. Says he also used to daytrade in a group, made a lot of money at it. For some reason he is working for the hospital full time now, you do the math. I know they got out of the market, have not yet gone back in because he is convinced that the market is going to fall apart. DUDE, we have universal worldwide agreement in this rally! Nobody knows when it will end, but it has been a rally. In my opinion, anyone with decently developed analysis could have made some good money.

My current trading is horribly boring. I miss the thrill of big bucks in and out, the hunt, the highs and lows. But I ended up missing the money worse. Post trade analysis has helped me to change finally and I richer and sleeping better for it.

I'd like to get my coworkers rich, being a nurse is really tough at times, the non financial rewards do not often come. If I could figure out some way to add a 401K gadget tracker I would. Real estate is still okay but AF Europac and a MidCap fund are the current leaders.

I have finished the Curtis Faith Turtle book. Good stuff for basic systems people, good methods for their system which could be adaptable without too much effort into an average Joes trading setup. I most liked taking out of it the fact that those that trade for their ego needs will get quashed. I need to be mindful of this and search for ego satisfaction other ways. So much for bragging.

Its early here, time to get down to research.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009


Stockcharts guy I newly bookmarked

Gym membership

I was thinking I needed to join a martial arts club to get rid of some bodyfat. Turns out my winter gym membership arrived today...

What I am watching (and stocks that look ok)

One of my accounts is in EWM, only up 3.4%, most everything else is double that or more. I might look to sell and wait or enter some of the following. I'll likely only go for an ETF, but chart wise the following look watchable: CNO BMI HLCS VGZ TXT ZGEN SHZ JJC SLV IXG SEA CEDC GTN EWO CERS. Short candidates RODM USEG.

Monetizing blogs, my message

I took a quick look around the adsense stuff, thought back to blogs I liked and found helpful. I was considering trying to make a few bucks off of this down the road, but I am just not that worried about making a few pennies. I'd rather enjoy my life and make the big bucks.

The other issue is the message I believe in and would put forth, it would not sell. I have nothing to offer, my message is not unique or sexy, I offer little unique insight. The advice I would offer is what I would say to any youngster coming up in the world: Work hard, study, save as much as you can. Pay yourself first. Invest in the best you can, dont be too risky with money you can't lose. Follow the major trends, ignore the news, follow the price. Read a lot. Daytrading for pennies is tough, try the long balls to stay around. Trade less.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Breadth indicators

Click title

Week review

The best thing I heard all week (from Gilmo) was how odd it was that O won the Nobel on the same day that the US bombed the moon!

I've only reviewed a few charts, things look nice. Caught that Dow had new closing high for the year, others are close. Higher volume sure would be nice to confirm but this slow creep sure is good too. Informal sentiment still bearish but more bulls awakening. I have some comfort room in ETF profits but it does not look like I will need them.

Some pigeons completed their first 200 miler, took several days for some, this am I think I see more around.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Fear and Greed

I like the movement of the market. I am still looking at individual stocks but still see where some of what I would have chosen has stayed flat or lost, would have damaged pride some more. Greed keeps me looking, fear keeps me out. Real estate pulled back I expect it is still okay in my 401K for long term hold. Odd how the foreign ETFs move throughout the day, they look like they could be traded intraday. I'd like to read more fundamental international news but might not go looking for anything. EWA interesting, I reviewed my blog, should have bought when I commented on the real infrastructure high speed spending they are doing, not the new sidewalks I see here in the states. I'm all in! DGS EWM EWZ ILF INP RSX THD Systems and Forecasts seems to be good at measuring the VS of the market.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009


BRF doing okay even with low volume.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Sitting tight

Perhaps after getting your abs punched enough in the market one can develop a little fortitude and be successful after all. Lets just say I am not down fifty dollars no more sucker! Time and price will tell...

Saturday, October 3, 2009

ETF scans

Odd for me to do some work on Saturday am but it is nice and quiet this am. First off, I view it as important to trade the markets and what they are doing, not trade the economy and what the numbers say. I understand those that argue about a jobless recovery but frankly don't give a darn about figures.

Having said that there are some warning signs about in the markets. Japan clearly busted its 50 day and has made a lower low. This might be an omen for what near term direction is or might end up being supremely buyable. I am taking it as caution. Recent ETF trades now in mild loss position without clear sell signals, I'm down like $50 in total. I bought into ILF and EWZ, left BRF alone due to low volume. Odd that INP was down when NBR said India was up, another india etf was up on the day. There is some other weakness in charts of regional ETFs. Long term I am watching some commodity ETFs for entry points in energy plays but they are not there yet.

Friday, October 2, 2009

End of life

That crap hurt yesterday didn't it? I am reading a new book, "Freakanomics". Check out this site I learned about from it.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Gun Shy

I reviewed a bunch of charts and see some nice set ups in stocks. I would wait for CEDC to breakout, others that look good here and now are VISN CNO EXXI UTSI HLCS. I almost pulled the trigger on MVIS at 5.1 a couple days ago, it looks in play still. I likely have too much fear to go for stocks but many of those I mentioned have had pullbacks that might go up from here. ETFs that I might more likely buy on pullbacks are ILF EWZ BRF.

I pick up my gun permit today...


I added to INP, sold IYR EWT and XSD as under performers. EWT looks stronger now. I likely would not have bought THD if I looked closer at it then as it is low volume. I am amazed at intraday ETF price movement.

My two hands are still bullishly in the air, gotta wonder if those IBDers at the meetup are still short? This thought comes from a desire to be right, rich, and others wrong. Bad...

I got my second ever comments on the blog. Once again it has nothing to do with my blog, my thoughts, my great trading or wisdom. Instead it seems to be someone that wants to spread some dirt. I do not care to learn the dirt on anyone, it will not help me. I view myself as an ever increasing knowledgeable trader with incredible room to grow. I am capable of the best and worst in the market and have done both. I have listened to others, paid others. But the key is that I am responsible for my money, my trades, my decisions. As far as the past, other than it being instructrive to reflect and change, I prefer to focus on what I can do for me, not what I can do to hurt another.

"The Art of Making Money": A great easy read, not about the market. I read this one on the beach while watching all kinds of fisherman. These guys really reminded me of a bunch of traders in so many ways. Big and little poles, over anxious for small nibbles or normal gyrations, perhaps they missed the real catches due to too much activity.