Friday, July 29, 2016

NVAX Ownership, RSV phase 3

It had been trending down a bit, I think the old high was 83.1%, went just below 83%.  THis am is shows 83.23%, a new high per nasdaq site.  Just amazing.  I dont put much weight in these small little changes.  More data expected over the next two weeks, perhaps some bigger changes.

Price action seems slow.  While I would prefer a buildup in price, it mostly seems to me as a gentle shaking of the tree.  Emotions and expectations are high, I have some fear.  Selling out would relieve this pressure, I've done that before.  I am sleeping well.  My spouse is sleeping well.

Phase 3 data for elderly RSV could come any time.  I expect it could come before earnings so they get a chance to pound their chests a little.  Then perhaps further partnership info though I have no feel for that.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Other comps Anacor ANAC

Based upon the data here:

A product with a peak sales of 2B has the company sold for almost 6B, a 3x rule of thumb applied to previously accepted sales figures for RSV of 5B yields future sales price based on market cap of 15B of at least $50.

Current market cap is 2.06B, price is 7.43
Future market cap is 15B, 7.28 times current price..
7.43 x 7.28 = $54.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Novavax NVAX $7 options

WOW!  Click image for larger...