Wednesday, January 30, 2013

This market puzzles me

I have beliefs about the market direction that might be clouding my judgement. I really think the market should not do well over the coming months, the bulk of my money has been"safe" out of the market for a couple months, little disheartening to see the rally. With the Nasdaq not fully participating it is tough to tell that I am right early or just wrong. I judge risk to not be worth the gain and really want a market scare or pullback to get long again. Things I believe: 1. Presidential election cycles favor proper functioning of govt for a couple years. They might do things unpopular and needed now, might be bad for market. 2. 2% more in taxes to govt bad for the spending numbers. 3. More taxes possible. 4. Credit seems difficult and slow despite the low rates. 5. I think banks that own foreclosures are up to something, holding onto inventory, not putting it on the market, or even pulling it off the market. I had a deal go south on a place I bid asking price that is off the market now.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013