Monday, November 22, 2010

Buy and hold?

I see lots of equities I used to own doing well today. I really wish I better remembered trading near turkey day from years past to have some idea of the ebb and flow of things. I do not keep good track of that sort of thing, perhaps I should. I'd started a simple notebook of market action, tracking indices, VIX, Tick, mainly with the idea of capturing some explosive moves off bottoms and tops. If I kept this up for years maybe it would be easier to look back. This web journal really does not delve into that kind of rhythm reading yet. Hmm.

It is not quite trading related but I passed my orange belt karate test this past weekend. This requires dedication and effort that I hope will reflect well upon my trading. The next belt is green and will require more.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Good reads

Follow these links for some good reading.

Another good trade

Market not right at the present. Daily chart candles suggest move up over for now, 2 days ago big price spike up with close near the low along with lower action yesterday is what had me preserve profits. Percentage wise this is one of my best in months. Click chart for larger image. FYI, these charts are always basic, I follow a few more things like moving averages to decide on trade entry, also some measure of volatility to decide on trade size. I did not follow this strictly on this issue, in fact, when I first decided to enter stock, I proposed a tighter stop for others, and was thinking more like a $21 stop for me, glad it worked.

A few things that I have read about technical analysis and canslim investing suggest that any stock that breaks out of a base and moves 20% in less than three weeks needs to be held for 8 weeks as it might go on to be one of the big market winners. I can look back on my trade history and see plenty of stocks that are higher now than what I paid for them, I will simply just follow this for another favorable controlled risk entry, it has a good story.

Perhaps these short term swing trades should be my specialty? I am doing quite well at them the past few months. I might miss some of the moves at the start and end, but I am banking coin/ringing the register. I want to have the next 3000% stock, but waiting for such a big winner might have me sitting on losses. I need to masticate on my approach to this: go for longer term buy and hold, or stick with short swing moves?

I talked about this stock to two people in my life, not sure how this affected the trade.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

IPO research

Months ago I was keeping good track of IPOs, got quite a list of them. It seemed like some I was following closely at the time have gone on to nice gains. About the time I was getting into futures I stopped this discipline and following. Well today I had it on my list to get back to this research, have now built some watch lists and put some stuff on the quote screens.

At first it seemed like good easy money could be had. One of the key chart patterns I've heard about of late is a Uturn or IPO Uturn. Several IPOs exhibit this, then break out to new highs, generally on better volume with increased or new highs in the RS line. I found many with 10 % gains, other with >60% gains. I got all excited.

But I am the kind of person that has to be careful what I put into my brain. Most of the IPOs were actually very messy in the charts. Many of the issues were tough to believe in on a fundamental level. Much pain could be had.

I will continue to keep my eye on select IPOs, those with good stories with room for exponential growth, those that large institutions would buy and hold for years.

Trading is a lonely pursuit

This am as I put in some honest time reviewing charts I am struck by the utter loneliness of this pursuit. I want to exchange ideas with like minded people. I want to share my insight, I really feel like I am finding some great charts with tradeable patterns setting up. I want to share with my coworkers, my spouse, my family, those on net forums. But they do not share my interests. Even those on the computer like me think much differently, do not appreciate the way I do things.

I guess in a way, I want to avoid the work that needs to be done and just sit around and talk about stocks. But the meat in the middle is found by doing the hunting, putting in the time. This systematized approach is what yields results.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010


This trade entails more risk than I have been taking of late. It will be volatile in the next hour and then after hours. I might be better off walking away and holding this one for years. I took a look at options but they only go out to Jan 2012 which is the earliest time they will put out new cheaper model car.

Think about this IPO. They are using the money to buy and build new products for market. They in many ways are the first entry in this field. They are partnering with Toyota and Mercedes. This could be a game changer.

Now that I've gathered all this evidence we will have to see if I let it affect my trading.

Recent trades

Monday, November 8, 2010

Mahindra Trucks

I have been following for this perhaps 30 mpg truck to be released in the US, got this email last week. It is an interesting tell on aspects of the economy.

Good Morning Mahindra Truck Fans,

Congratulations. You are part of over 30,000 signed up to be the first to experience the hardworking Mahindra trucks.

I know you are wondering when you will have the opportunity to get behind the wheel of one of these amazing, authentic, robust, fuel-efficient trucks at a Mahindra dealer near you. While I cannot give you a firm answer on timing, I can tell you in my estimation, trucks will arrive in the spring of 2011.

Mahindra has applied for and received their EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) certificate, which means the vehicles have passed emission requirements. They also filed with (NHTSA) National Highway Safety Administration, which handles US standards for safety.

With these hurdles completed, it would seem production is imminent, but other factors may hinder the US launch. India’s car sales are on a dramatic trajectory upward. The sales pace combined with an industry wide parts shortage is impacting home market sales, which will have an affect on the United States introduction.

In closing, I know each of you anxiously await the arrival of the Mahindra trucks, and I am confident that you will see a launch announcement in the next few months.

If you haven't seen the Specsheet on the trucks yet, please click on the link below to see it.

Click here to view Specsheet

Or copy and place the following into your browser:


John A. Perez
Global Vehicles USA, Inc.
1720 Windward Concourse
Suite 400
Alpharetta, GA 30005

(770) 753-4441 (Office)
(770) 753-4420 (Fax)

Friday, November 5, 2010


Awesome recovery here by such focus, now down 0.8% YTD.

Thursday, November 4, 2010



It aint going up and market is having broad rally, I sold out around 111.2. First entry was 101.5, then 104.41, then 110.36. Nice profit. Will continue to follow, I might be wrong but will sleep well. Of note, RSX is doing well with pop in oil. Retirement stuff doing well, trading accounts down 3.6% YTD.

Update and fundamental thoughts

First off, I ended up concentrating all of my holdings into one stock. I got in and out of WYNN with a small profit, it has since gone up. Oh well, so has everything else I had. My equity has retracted in price some but I have decent profit. I was questioning myself the past few days as I had nearly retraced ALL of my losses for the year. Normally when I start counting my money and feeling good it is a good time to take profits off the table. It is a significant amount of money I have paid tuition with this year.

When looking at charts of overall market we have held up nicely, not really fallen apart. I do not often feel one way or another about market movement (feel or think about things is different than chart reading) I think that the election results will put an end to things in our government that many view as creating socialism and uncertainty. With a divided Congress, that which passes must more so be reasonable, good, satisfying, and proper. I think this could serve as a catalyst for further market growth.

Besides, all of the previous quarters expectations were underestimated...