Tuesday, January 31, 2012


Research Report ZIP

Recent IPO but in business for a number of years. They focus on large communities and universities that have established public transportation systems. Good organic and purchased growth with evidence of vehicels and number of customers increasing. I find the story not quite believeable but that is the kind of thing that had me sell out of NFLX too early. Gadgets in cars a nice feature, lots of young customers. Presentations seem well laid out and they are executing well. Recent Donchian b/o, perhaps extended. I'd rather buy a pullback when price rate of change goes red again. Odd how steady the price decline has been, early purchasers are pained. I can't recall seeing any in use in DC. No tell as far as institutions.

I'd say this could be a buy now, or after a pullback for a nice long term investment. They look like the have room to grow and business model that has been working.

Research report NVAX

Novavax is a player in the vaccine develpment market. Vaccines typically are made with chicken eggs using live viruses, then the virus is inactivated somehow. From what I can gather, NVAX makes their vaccines without live virus hence no need for biological controls during manufacture. They also use new techniques: insects as growth vectors, and virus like particle engineering. The company website suggests they can make vaccines faster, perhaps with immunological benefits over traditional vaccines, perhaps even faster.

GE is partnered with them. Many overseas companies are partnered with them. US Govt has given them funding for further research. Many vaccines are in clinical trials, not just for bird flu, but also for several other viral illnesses.

The leadership looks strong by background. Much of the leadership has been with the company for just a few years. This could be a weakness or just a sign of growth.

The market has not shined well on price. Institutions are generally getting out or lightening up on this issue, price and average trend is down.

I suspect the bottom is in. Disclosure: I am a small owner. It made a Donchian b/o.

Overall update

2011 was nearly disastrous: I was too early on some trades, did some risky things with options, CHURNED in and out. The second half of the year I just held on to a few key issues, even through losses, 2/3 are profitable now, the other one is much less painful. I have been sleeping well and am a lot calmer. I probably had some trading related depressive issues; these were healed with time, sane behaviour, and renewed hope for the future.

Work 401K stayed pretty consistent all year. I sat through ALL TIME HIGHS (a truly amazing figure) and the 20% fall, now back to peace. I've considered some movement but am overall well positioned in some broad spectrum stuff. The one change I made was cutting back on what is contributed. For a couple years it was the absolute maximum possible but I have come to realize that cash in the bank, not in a retirement account, is what is most needed to change my lifestyle for the better. I am a young man, further retirement associated funds are a long way off from being of use without penalty. So I am looking to significantly boost ready cash funds beyond the 3-6 months reserves.

Trading room office construction has begun. Electric rough in done, expect the air ducts to get done today. With some luck I will insulate and drywall this weekend. The plan is to keep this room bland in color and design to allow creative energies from within to flow. I do not want distractions.

Focus for future
I do not think I can be a good short term trader. I see some things on intraday charts on issues I follow, they absolutely could be profitable but only with low share size. Perhaps I will do some of this later. But my focus is absolutely more professional like, I am searching for the next big growth companies. I am kind of blending the best of what I have read and observed.

Trades are guided, though not bound, by position sizing risk management previously described here in a video, also on my youtube chanel.

Research focuses on smaller growth oriented companies, typically IPOs of the past several years. I review IPOs after they go public, search for business models I can understand, growth stories I can believe in, look into the management and perhaps even the competition. I like the idea of new technology and avoid pharmaceuticals. I do not follow group or industry behaviour, I fear missing out on a great time to buy for the future.

Principal trading ideas flow from these stocks, buying them almost without regard to chart pattern or what the market is doing. I suspect I could just as well trade around those I am most familiar with, selling the bursts and buying the panics. I also am keeping my eyes on behaviour of volatility, it seems to be tradeable for months long swing trades. I think it will take some time to come down to historical relative calmness, then I will look into buying in for some changes in climate. I suspect this will come late spring or early summer.

I think there is also money to be made with buying and selling bursts and panics in the overall market, see that it could be easy to make 20% or more a year doing this and am keeping an eye out on this.

Thursday, January 26, 2012