Wednesday, September 19, 2012


Just for my records

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Now puts sold

I sold those NOW puts for 77% profit. Small money. I am trading more than I thought I would be but things are going well. Options expiry says to me it will be see saw for a while, not gonna do much. I am watching a few select stocks for long term holds.

I said I wouldn't, but NOW

Now is an IPO stock I took a look at and thought was shortable at about 3 months post IPO. My thought was that the IPO lockup was near expiry, at a high, time for insiders to get out of it. Well, the case is that this one has a 180 lockup period. Still, as I took a further look I decided to go ahead and buy some puts for October. I only have a few hundred at risk. The tide seems to be turning down, starting yesterday, about a week ago the same thing happened and it fell hard and fast. It is at all time high. The company is a cloud related service provider with great revenue increases yet in the recent quarter went from being profitable to net loss for the year and quarter, and they forecast staying at a loss for the year. I did not listen to the conference calls or read too much further as I only plan on staying in this trade this week. So, they have been in business since 2005 or so, went from profit state to a loss, stochastics appear to be changing, market might be in a pullback for now. I think my chances are good.

Monday, September 17, 2012

TSLA closed trade

So after I sold VSI I bought some more TSLA. TSLA was oversold based upon similar TA related items such as price ROC and stochastics. It moved down just a little bit from there, I am willing to hold it for years. Over the next week it moved up nicely, I sold the pop premarket today for a less than 2 week 18% gain. Again, perhaps I should have held for more as I expect TSLA to go to the moon...but I am all in much larger in two other accounts. I viewed the pop as a gift to open. I will keep watching. Click 4 week chart for larger view.

VSI closed trade

For a more detailed view of why and when I closed out VSI see back around 9/5. I am still watching it. I did some research to see more about when I bought it. Click image for larger view.


Well I am reading on this company and decided to stop investigating. My amateur view of balance sheets is they are running a serious loss without hope of near term profit. They have one drug in the pipeline, state that their failure or success will be determined only by this one drug. A larger company sold the rights to this drug to them, why would Pfizer sell a good drug? Leadership and management seem to have some experience but nothing exciting. Price seems low. On the plus side, if this drug works and gains approval it could do very well. I am not interested in that lottery ticket.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

IPO research, review, YTD

First off, net worth is at an all time high. This is attributable to: -sticking with a plan -spending less than earned -saving and investing -decreasing trade frequency / 2nd: Getting out of VSI worried me a little but seems to have been correct for now. I added to another favorite and that has worked well. Real Estate is a good idea One account might be up over 300% YTD, though it was in the hole at start of the year. Others are unremarkable but unconcerning. I was researching IPOs through Sept 2012, not much appeals to me. I will do further research on DRTX and NDP. NDP is interesting as I was just thinking that natural gas is an area that could have some game changers, good new companies that could do well. The downside to natgas is an inability to fully understand and touch taste feel companies in that area, unlike walking into a VSI store. IPOs at 3 month area, at highs, possible shortable EQM, and NOW. I am not.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

I made some changes

The biggest thing I have done is switch the largest portion of funds (that are in an annuity and two 401k accounts) over to the lowest cost index funds. The expense ratios are at least half a percent cheaper, up to a full percent. Considering that 75% of professionally managed funds do not beat the SP500, paying them extra to do so severely limits my returns. The loss of 1% compounded over many years hurts. This info compliments of the Bogleheads. I suggest everyone take a look at their forum and also read some of the latest stuff by Jack Bogle. I've also added some diversification to my investing. I've bought my first rental home. The justification for this is twofold. There are two ways for me to think about having a secure old age. The first is to have a large nest egg (3 million) that grows at a modest interest rate allowing for withdrawals such that I maintain current lifestyle while still growing some. I came up with my figure assuming 3% rate of return while not accounting for pension or social security. It is my quit work today figure. The second way to think about retirement is from a cash flow perspective. If I live on say 4K a month, I need to have that amount of income from all sources at retirement. Buying a rental home and having it paid for by the tenant, gives me improved cash flow. Minimizing my expenses will also help. The way I figure things out, putting 20K into a property, renting it out, paying down the bank note early can pay off the property in 10 years. 20K to 60 or 80K in 10 years? THAT"S GREAT! I am already looking at my 2nd home, perhaps my third. My goal is to buy 10 rentals in next 5 years. Time will tell the wisdom of some trades I closed yesterday. They were spur of the moment unplanned. The first is NVAX. I owned very little of it, made around 30%. One could argue it has a bull flag and could do a double or better from here. No real technical indicators, I just figure there is better stuff to own now. The 2nd is VSI. Click charts for blown up view.
The VSI trade might come back to bite me. I've been watching the indicators mentioned for a year or two, seems like trading in and out of stocks when they move in such ranges could really enhance profits and minimize risk. The problems becomes not forgetting the stock, something I have been guilty of. Also influencing my decision was that VSI was upgraded to a buy. I am just suspicious... One old favorite of mine that is doing well is CNO. I saw mention that AIG had broken out, perhaps all of the insurers are moving well. I have not kept up with CNO so am not a buyer but they sure have looked buyable.