Sunday, December 27, 2009

New Feature

I've added a new area to the right to show what I have my work 401K money in. I will try and update this if and when I make any changes. I got my hands spanked for changing these investments too frequently so I can only make changes once per quarter, that is why I reviewed things today and got out of one fund. It is interesting to see that the real estate fund has far exceeded the others this quarter. Growth has also favored value, which makes sense to me in a better market environment.

I am already excited for end of year evaluation and goal setting. With a quick look back I have failed many of the goals I set for 2009. More later...

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Book review

I ran into the video I will try and attach on a site called misstrade. They have some interesting interviews, not always with traders. I read this guys book Confessions of an Economic Hitman after picking it up for a few bucks. It was an interesting read though I am not sure how well his idea that a few powerful families control everything will stand the test of time.

John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hitman and out soon Hoodwinked (11-10-09) and MissTrade, Matt Davio talk Hitmen from miss trade on Vimeo.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Happy wedding

Yahoo had list of most popular youtube videos, this was one of them.


I might live to regret this but I sold out of a recent purchase in CNO for a very small profit(in 4.77, out 4.91). The stock offering news has me worried in a fundamental sense, I'd rather not lose. The chart still looks good but it is not for me any longer. I think this one will stay back burner for quite a while.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Boring market

This market has me considering some bad moves, need to just sit on my hands and see which way things go. I have not worked much at this the past 2 weeks, allowing distraction to occupy me, this should change after another week or so. I remain in some oversized trades in losing position. Even though at a loss they have not clearly broken down. I will give these some time, wish I had stuck with ETFs in smaller size. Failure of these stocks will have me revert to this again.

I am increasingly aware that guys like Tim Sykes that trade very differently than other market participants have an edge in the trading world.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Short side

All three of my short ideas have come down nice! So has what I own, but not the 2.4 - 6% I see today.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

This is nuts


It's been a while since I actually looked at charts to see the state of things. I see some nice tradeable issues long and short. The following are all in a stock list of mine that all show great fundamental numbers, stocks I will watch and consider long positions in for great gains if they set up right for me. I recall the last time I did this I posted my ideas in a free chatroom I frequent (click title to go there). One of the ideas I felt strongest about at that time was PLX was a short though risky. It has since come down about 40%, that is mad money! The main thing I saw at the time was how extended it was above the 200 day average and even the 50 day average. At times these things are a lot like rubber bands that get stretched too far. No matter how much enthusiasm or energy there is to push things along, eventually there has to be a return to neutral-I think some folks call this a mean reversion.

So my big picks shorty wise, similar to the above are: CAAS and TSTC. MELI perhaps in a bit.

Longs to watch for:
CGA BPI watch the group TNDM logical but risky LIFE watch for emrbryo/stemcell interest to perk this EJ on a 50 day recovery play CPTS-great #s, maybe bottom of cup AMSC for flat base emergence XOMA puzzles but interests me CYOU has nice volume dryup

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

November Performance-figures never lie

I am really not sure if anyone chooses to read this stuff and sense that this blog is evolving more to my trading journal to look back and reflect a little better. I like the idea of going back and reviewing trades, I'd started journal efforts a few times before but they were never very organized. It is also an honest show, with actual figures. If I ever achieve wild success it will be detailed here.

401k/annuity accounts: At or near all time highs, helped by regular contributions and sitting on my hands. Top balances are in Emerging markets and real estate, worst balance in financials. Good job.

Trading: Four accounts, mixed performance. Four round trips, half profitable. Worthless option expired, holding worthless aaple option, long NFLX in all accounts, only in one is it at a profit. Account changes: -6.9, +5.9, +.5, -2.4%. Overall +.4%.

Discussion: Profitable trades were in CNO twice, once for a loss. Overall I am happy with those, did not bother looking at the dates. GMCR took a small loss ignoring the bullishness in the news and marketing. I believe in the stock but not working out well, still on radar. NFLX is a tougher judgement call, perhaps I am in it too much to be objective. I regret being so large into the position, I am all in. This is counter to position sizing limits designed to help me. The recent weakness in this stock looks to me like it keeps trying to shakeout folks with news on Dubai and downgrades by other firms. One firm a few weeks ago raised target price to 72 or such. I was really looking for it to go to $65 easy (height of recent flagpole move). The past three days with moves down but closes near the high strike me as bullish. If and when I get out of NFLX I need to be more careful with my greed, tone down exposure to any one issue.