Friday, July 29, 2016

NVAX Ownership, RSV phase 3

It had been trending down a bit, I think the old high was 83.1%, went just below 83%.  THis am is shows 83.23%, a new high per nasdaq site.  Just amazing.  I dont put much weight in these small little changes.  More data expected over the next two weeks, perhaps some bigger changes.

Price action seems slow.  While I would prefer a buildup in price, it mostly seems to me as a gentle shaking of the tree.  Emotions and expectations are high, I have some fear.  Selling out would relieve this pressure, I've done that before.  I am sleeping well.  My spouse is sleeping well.

Phase 3 data for elderly RSV could come any time.  I expect it could come before earnings so they get a chance to pound their chests a little.  Then perhaps further partnership info though I have no feel for that.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Other comps Anacor ANAC

Based upon the data here:

A product with a peak sales of 2B has the company sold for almost 6B, a 3x rule of thumb applied to previously accepted sales figures for RSV of 5B yields future sales price based on market cap of 15B of at least $50.

Current market cap is 2.06B, price is 7.43
Future market cap is 15B, 7.28 times current price..
7.43 x 7.28 = $54.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Novavax NVAX $7 options

WOW!  Click image for larger...

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Bill Gates mentions RSV

12 seconds into the video here:

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

The price action in NVAX

yesterday, today, and the rest of the week will be the tale of the tape for end of quarter positions.  Nobody can read the cards that the large professional investors hold yet, but what is happening now will be known in about 45 days when filings are done.  Volume today is running high and the NVAX recovery is stronger than the market recovery.  Draw your own conclusions, I know what mine are.

Click image if you want

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

NVAX in 1997

1996 here:

Feel free to skip, not much was done.  I don't think much happened clinically

2.4 M shares registered for sale. 1.2 M to Anaconda, plus 1.2 M in warrants to same, privately placed.
11.8M shares total
18 employees, 11 are R&D
The JnJ lawsuit was settled without liability
1058 stockholders, just under 40% show up as reportable
Net loss 5.494M

The depth of data discussed in modern filings is so much more, likely due to changing regulation and complexity of the company.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Novavax in 1996

Previous year here:

In 1996 Novavax had two proposed share offerings, the first for 240K shares, the 2nd for 505K shares.  Documents explain more of the formation of several companies becoming the new independent NVAX.  There products and research had been focusing on several products:
1.  Oral and topical delivery of liposomes (the IGI products of which were being used in cosmetics).
2.  Micellar nanoparticles (MNPs)
3.  Estrasorb
4.  Non antibiotic Helicore for treatment of H Pylori
5.  Vaccine adjuvants.
6.  They received IND for 2 oral vaccine products.

Novavax suspended work on all to focus on Estrasorb and Helicore.  Marsh initially became chairman of the board, later in the year and new Chairman and CEO were brought in.

Mention is made of a lawsuit by J and J versus NVAX and IGI over a Nova skin product.

They have 36 patents.

There is some discussion about possible government price controls of pharmaceuticals.

Of note, after two P I clinical trials of the Helicore, data was insufficient to continue testing.

1997 here: