Monday, June 13, 2016

NVAX price target 2

OKAY, how about a little help figuring out future price targets.

Two pharma companies I missed out on owning were ALXN, on my watch list years ago at $25, and JAZZ which a chat room I was in was being touted when around $30. I could not wrap my head around those drugs, nor come up with decent analysis for growth.

When I was really getting on board with TSLA, I again had a tough time figuring out a future price target. I asked for some help here, conversations got real perverted.

If I take a look at ALXN, it has 2B in sales and a 33.5B mkt cap. cap is about 16x sales.
JAZZ has 1B in sales and a 9.45B cap, about 9xsales.
NVAX working on RSV vaccines- published by many to be a 5B market each year.
5B multiplied by the above comps yields mkt cap of 45B-80B. Today it is roughly 1B, closed at $4.6.
So future price target based just on RSV sales could be $207-$368.

Price now should clearly be less based upon risk and time.
What is wrong with my analysis?

The above is from Aug 2014 thoughts, likely prior to some dilution.

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