Puzzled

Recent market strength puzzles me. I expected a slow spring and summer with bullishness returning in the fall or next year. Clearly I am lousy at market prediction, need to adhere to a cohesive intelligent strategy. I have not done this well the past couple months though it has not been destructive. The number of mutual funds holding ecar stock has grown to 242. It has gone north of 40 for the first time on great strength. I ADDED higher than where we are now 41.56. I subscribed to IBD again but dislike the salesmanship. They have a new 2013 book out from their meetup representative. Basically it rehashes everything ever said, profiles those that have used the "system". Lots of small players seem to hold for short periods, scare off easy, perhaps churn accounts. They do not talk about overall returns. The book seems to be a sales tool for many of the things that IBD sells, generally monthly charges for products that likely wont help me do better.

Tesla holders

Previous posts on such things are here 1. Aug 27 2012 2.Nov 23 2012 and current

This market puzzles me

I have beliefs about the market direction that might be clouding my judgement. I really think the market should not do well over the coming months, the bulk of my money has been"safe" out of the market for a couple months, little disheartening to see the rally. With the Nasdaq not fully participating it is tough to tell that I am right early or just wrong. I judge risk to not be worth the gain and really want a market scare or pullback to get long again. Things I believe: 1. Presidential election cycles favor proper functioning of govt for a couple years. They might do things unpopular and needed now, might be bad for market. 2. 2% more in taxes to govt bad for the spending numbers. 3. More taxes possible. 4. Credit seems difficult and slow despite the low rates. 5. I think banks that own foreclosures are up to something, holding onto inventory, not putting it on the market, or even pulling it off the market. I had a deal go south on a place I bid asking price that is off the market now.

2% from my employer

2012 review

A great year for trading. I have 3 accounts I use, not gonna report on 401Ks as I have little control over them. Roth1: Holding a profitable Leap. 4 small size profitable option trades. Loss SPXL. 2 stock gains. +38%. Roth 2: Little action. Sold profitable VSI. In out TSLA profit. Loss FAZ. Holding 4 +/-. +17% IRA: Most active, in and out action. Held XIV massive loss for good gain. 5 losing trades in 2 stocks. 3 gains stocks. +110% for the year, 25% above acct high. Overall YTD +39%. Discussion: Still too much trading with emotion, much longer holding periods. Perhaps some better skill with options (no losses but only small size). I am off highs, preserved capital. I could get back into trading on margin but still think I would screw it up. I'll continue to invest in rentals instead of intraday trading.

Old habits

I let too much garbage in my defenses, I wonder if I ought to stop reading new books on the market and stop reading and/or participating in online market related forums. I took a sizable hit, got out fast, quickly regrouped. Better than any other time.

Take that Jimmy Cramer

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000135144