Tuesday, August 2, 2011


I have been following Tesla for a while now, trying to justify the price and work on some assumptions of the future. So what I did last night was examine other auto maufacturers market cap, worldwide market share, and then come up with possible justified market cap if TSLA produces enough vehicles to match prior production at their NUMMI plant. This would equate to 1% of world production at 450,000 vehicles a year. The table here (might have to click on the image for larger) compares three large companies and figures out what TSLA market cap would be. For example, Ford has 46.9B in sales and has 18.4% of market share would suggest that 1% of market share could justify future cap of (46.9B/18.4) 2.6B. The comparitive cap shows in the 4th column.

My discussion
This does not account for non auto sales such as drivetrains to Daimler and Toyoda
This does not account for likely higher margins on early TSLA models
This might not be a good way to determine value, but it does suggest they have a ways to go to justify current price compared to GM and F but could grow 3-4 x to equal TM.

I'd like educated feedback on TSLA, my attempt at price justification.
Thank you.

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