Novavax

It was an emotional weekend as I discovered two new message boards discussing stocks.  I got excited over prospects for NVAX reading one of them.

There are three catalysts to propel shares higher.  The first is the continued accumulation of shares by large investors.  The second is continued good news as they engage in stage 3 trials late next year and then get positive results and government approval.  The third, and cause for my excitement, is the potential for a buyout.  End of the day 12/3/13 volume jumped as price was near $4.  Some people suggested this was someone accumulating the start of a buyout position, just under the reportable 5% position.  I don't know the deal on these things, but it sure sounds nice.

I look at a company like Jazz, one I did not believe in, that has grown exponentially in just a few years.  They have a market cap >6 times of NVAX based on 820M in sales, mostly in one product delivered to just 11,000 people.  Surely NVAX could grow 6x if they could sell a vaccine.

Cons of owning NVAX:
waiting for news
only 2 yrs of funds
No profit
Whims of trials and approvals

Pros:
They are executing.
They have good technology.
Sponsorship is increasing.
Management owns it.  (I just learned Erck has almost 3M shares)   http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1000694.htm
They have 2 years of expenses.
Price movement out of >4 year period
Volume higher
Sector movement.
Back of napkin target $33-83

The emotionally derived greed brought on buyout possibilities has me considering buying more now instead of the confirmation of new and continued highs.

This strikes me as a Weinstein Tale of the Tape kind of pick.